I don't just browse that Usenet group, I participate, although not so often as I'd like. I'm generally (not always and not consistently) willing to accept qualitative rather than quantitative analyses for science fiction technology, so once the equations are whipped out my useful participation is typically at an end. But when it's a question of whether something is possible at all, there's not much do to but take out the equations.Nebusj, I'm glad I'm not the only one who browses through that Google Group. Some of those discussions are absolute gold. Have you seen this one?
On a side note, there was an error in the calculation, so the main engines and SRBs are detectable from 'only' 6 billion km.
I'd missed ``He Who Radiates Is Lost'', though, and thanks for the pointer.
Shame for the calculation error since the result was so dramatic beforehand, although I suppose ``easily detectable from Saturn'' isn't too bad either. I had missed that (actually, I was coming through a web page discussing the possibilities of stealth in space, and why it doesn't exist).
Ah, neat, and thank you for the endorsement. Even if it is Zubrin projections ...That vastly higher-power engines would be detectable from farther away by sensors with three centuries' more development seems pretty much inevitable.
Robert "Mars Direct" Zubrin discussed that very subject in his 1995 ASP paper, Detection of Extraterrestrial Civilizations via the Spectral Signature of Advanced Interstellar Spacecraft (PDF).
TGT
The Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe, launched in June 2001, is able to detect a fluctuation of 20 microKelvin across a pixel which covers roughly 0.3 arc-degrees of space. If you could kindly tell me what's happened to the knowledge to detect a 0.000020-degree change in temperature since 2001, I would appreciate learning.The idea that we have some sort of incredible sensors today has a totally hollow ring to it. There are thousands of near Earth objects which we do not know about (all within range of these sensors) and we have lost a number of our own spacecraft in recent years just heading for Mars.I don't understand this obsession with dubbing starship-style sensors as ``magic'', whereas somehow warp drive isn't. Current off-the-shelf sensor technology available in 2007 would be adequate to detect the maneuvering thrusters on the Space Shuttle from as far away as the asteroid belt, and if we were looking at the Space Shuttle's main engines (not the solid rocket boosters, by the way), we'd be able to detect them firing from as far away as Pluto is. (Reference: http://groups.google.com/group/rec.arts.sf.science/msg/54f4d01ceba2eb51 )
That vastly higher-power engines would be detectable from farther away by sensors with three centuries' more development seems pretty much inevitable. Yes, you have to suppose some way to send and receive data faster than light in order to have a subspace radar reaching out dozens of light-years usefully, but if you accept warp drive and subspace radio, you've already bought that ticket.
Incidentally, none of the space probes which have been lost were lost as in the sense of ``we don't know where they went''. They were lost in the sense of ``they stopped transmitting useful information'' or, with a few sad examples, ``they burned up in an atmosphere they weren't supposed to dip that far into''.
You're correct that there are many bodies in the solar system not yet tracked or not identified. You will also note that almost none of them have any strategic or tactical value. If you wait long enough, yes, whatever target you might want destroyed will someday be in the impact zone of a meteor strike; but if you'd rather have it destroyed sometime specific within the next 450 million years, you're going to have to expend a huge amount of power, and that's going to make you strikingly visible.
You'll also find that pretty much no material gets to Earth from these eruptions on the moons of Saturn. I suppose a couple stray molecules might, after many decades, but who cares about that? Now, if you would be so kind as to estimate what sort of explosion is necessary to get something of actual, you know, tactical value from Saturn to Earth -- let's say something the size of a minibus -- and then try to tell me that this sort of explosion would be somehow undetectable from the Earth.And thrusters and full on engines of the shuttles are but the tiniest fraction of a geologic eruptions, yet we only find out about eruptions on the moons of Jupiter or Saturn when we are practically on top of them. So while I'm sure this thing might be able to detect something if we know exactly where and when something is happening, that is a long way from sensing the unknown and warning us about it.
I count telescopes as pretty well deployed, successful technology at this point. That tactically useful bodies can be detected at enormous ranges is extremely well proven by example already, and there's no reason to think that sensor ranges are going to contract anytime soon.If you've got some guy trying to sell something... don't take the sales pitch! I have been a fan of Kip Thorne for years, and jumped at the chance to meet him when he came to speak at UCSD about 16 years ago. Sadly, the talk was actually a sales pitch for a gravitational wave telescope. Needless to say, I was very disappointed.
Until some technology is in active (successful) use, it is still a lot of theory. People have sunk billions of dollars into missile defense since the 1980s and always promised that the brake through was just around the corner.
The objection to borders in space for the Star Trek universe are absolutely baffling: by demonstration, it's possible for ships and bases to detect a wide swath of space around them, and to despatch units to investigate and to challenge intruders. If that isn't a defensible border, then what is a border?