"Statistical Probabilities"...the groups thesis.

[Dale Sams]

Their thesis of the Federation losing the war was never sound. And Julian should have been able to see the flaw even if they didn't, The main flaw and 'statistical improbability" is:

THERE ARE GODS AT WORK IN THE DS9 UNIVERSE

Even if the group considered it and concluded the wormhole aliens interference was a one-time thing.....the Emissary is at the heart of the entire conflict. THAT is something you simply cannot account for.

Then there are other little things, Odo is a changeling...time travel....Q....and at the end of the day, they won in a much more conventional fashion. Now yes, their thesis was VERY likely but in no way a 100% thing. And Julian should have seen that.

 

[somebuddyX]

True but that's kinda the point and not a flaw in the episode. Julian's compassion, not just for the group's theories but also as a medical doctor seeing for him unprecedented loss of life (98 ships being wiped out in a single battle in the season premiere) and his hubris in thinking himself superior leads him astray. Maybe in better circumstances he'd be thinking clearer but this was an unusual set of circumstances.

 

[Vger23]

I think the whole point of the episode is that there are many variables that are unquantifiable or impossible to account for that could lead to a major difference in outcomes.

 

[Finn]

Also, Jack’s having a huge chip in his shoulder would have clouded his analysis. He was quite emotional.

 

[kkt]

I think the whole point of the episode is that there are many variables that are unquantifiable or impossible to account for that could lead to a major difference in outcomes.

I would have thought that would be obvious - if not to the Jack Pack, then at least to Dr. Bashir.

 

[JirinPanthosa]

Also you see his analysis that in 200 years an insurrection would start on Earth, and later Weyoun says "If there is an insurrection it will start on Earth, so we will have to eradicate its population".

He didn't just neglect that the Prophets had already rigged the game to protect Bajor. They neglected that anyone else in the game was smart.

 

[at Quark's]

It's even not entirely out of the realm of the possible Weyoun based his statement on that projection. There's evidence that the Dominion has a very good intelligence network, after all.

EDIT: checked it. Nope. Statistical Probabilities takes place after Sacrifice of Angels (most likely). Bummer.

 

[Silvercrest]

I think the whole point of the episode is that there are many variables that are unquantifiable or impossible to account for that could lead to a major difference in outcomes.

So much for "psychohistory", then.

 

[kkt]

Weyoun and the Founder probably figured out themselves that Earth would be the center of any resistance. I don't see Weyoun taking suggestions from the Jack Pack.

 

[DonIago]

It's not exactly a huge leap of logic.