I think that's overly optimistic. That's seeing the performance of "Beyond" as a fluke, not as the natural progression of the franchise.
IMO if I had to guess, it's more the latter one: The domestic box office from ST09 to Into Darkness to Beyond was constantly in decline. The international box office of every franchise movie had an extremely sharp climb between 2009 and 2013, and Into Darkness improved it's international box office compared to ST09 beyond average, for Beyond it even sunk.
The franchise is in a pretty bad position right now: The last movie people actually saw came more than a decade ago. It's a franchise of an older era, pre-rise of cinematic universes, the Avengers and pretty much the modern filmscape. If they're unlucky, nobody but the most ardent Trek supporters show up, and the film is a massive bomb. If they're lucky, people in the meantime actually got more excited about Trek again, and are pouring to see a familiar franchise return in an exciting way.
It could literally earn anything, from 100M to 600M. The problem is it's absolutely unpredictable where in this range the movie will land. Normally someone expects a movie to earn around in the middle of the expected range. For ST4, all bets are off the rails, it cold land literally anywhere on this spectrum.