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So, would the Dominion War have been lost with Picard in Sisko's shoes?

If you want to blame someone or something for ending the war....it was Section 31. If they hadn't diseased Odo and the Founders, we would be in Season 26.

Not if Sisko hadn't been able to persuade the Prophets to intervene in Sacrifice of Angels, that was in season 6. However, both Odo's infection and the infection of the great Link occurred back in season 4. My guess is that, had those 2700 ships gone through the wormhole (and much more back in the gamma quadrant to draw upon), the Federation (and allies) would have sufferered a quick defeat, as their largest fleets seemed to number in the few hundred ships at best.

So, the Alpha Quadrant is conquered (or at least huge inroads made) and then the Founders are getting sick, about a year later. Probably would have plunged both the Alpha and the Gamma Quadrant in utter chaos. Sounds a bit like what the Pah Wraiths wanted all along.
 
For fuck's sake, this not about breaking some regulations, this is about murdering people! Sure, Kirk certainly broke rules, and so did Picard when it was needed. This is not about that. Kirk tried to save Kruge's life after Kruge had killed his son! If you think he would have some innocent third parties murdered you're out of your mind. And 'needs of the many' can only morally apply if it is 'the few' who themselves accept the sacrifice, like Spock did. You cannot go deciding that for the other people, or you might just as well start murdering people in order to harvest their organs to save more lives!

And again, this is fiction. The writers chose to write story where murder was justified. They could have written a story where said murder would have led to a catastrophe (by Romulans finding out and deciding to help the Dominion instead) or one where Sisko ends up saving Vreenak, thus gaining his trust, thus leading Vreenak eventually steering the Romulans to help the Federation.

To be fair, the most overlooked aspect of Pale Moonlight by its fans, tends to be that no, Sisko in fact cannot live with his decisions, but knows that he must regardless. He does regret the events that day, and that’s the point in the episode. He probably spends every day till he goes to live with the prophets regretting those choices...to go back to emissary, he will exist there. He would have probably confessed and had a court martial behind closed doors if he hadn’t gone poof into the wormhole, once the war was over. That’s why he makes the logs, why he says what he does, and deletes the logs only when he knows he has to go on.

But your points are absolutely right vis a vis the needs of the many etc. Spot on. It’s the heart of Trek.
 
To be fair, the most overlooked aspect of Pale Moonlight by its fans, tends to be that no, Sisko in fact cannot live with his decisions, but knows that he must regardless. He does regret the events that day, and that’s the point in the episode. He probably spends every day till he goes to live with the prophets regretting those choices...to go back to emissary, he will exist there. He would have probably confessed and had a court martial behind closed doors if he hadn’t gone poof into the wormhole, once the war was over. That’s why he makes the logs, why he says what he does, and deletes the logs only when he knows he has to go on.
Yes, I actually agree that this is the sentiment that his dialogue in the end is meant to convey, and I can sympathise with him. It is just that his angst about it is dropped after the episode and there is no repercussions. If there had, it would have been better. I really didn't like the ending they wrote for Sisko regardless. He jumped into Mount Doom to destroy an evil spellbook? What a nonsense.
 
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Picard would not have gone along with the deception in In The Pale Moonlight, and of course Picard doesn't get all the Prophet guidance Sisko does. But this is not the only major decision point that affected the outcome.
 
He jumped to Mount Doom to destroy an evil spellbook? What a nonsense.

^No, no, you have to watch this show with Rule of Acquisition 239 in mind (Never be afraid to mislabel a product). Yes, they are Prophets, but we'll call them 'wormhole aliens'. Yes, they do have foreknowledge of the future, but we'll call it 'living in a non-linear time continuum'. Yes, that is an evil spellbook, but there's probably another name we can tag on it, let's say 'an ancient hyperdimensional verteron communicator', since it allows you to talk to the other group of wormhole aliens, or some such thing.

See? Problem solved. It's no longer fantasy, it's all firmly grounded in science now!
 
So historical had a plan. Not the same as "has" a plan

I'm sure there are contingency plans for *every* possible enemy, no matter how ridiculous the scenario may be.

Even if that contingency plan for Canada invading is to politely clap and tell them all how adorable they are and how proud we are of them. ;)
 
Picard would have acted exactly the same as Sisko in the simulation in The Search, so Dominion tactics would have been similar. It's hard to say what Picard would have done in certain situations, he probably would have done better preventing the Klingon conflict since he would have had the ability to force Gowron to listen to him, so Federation and Klingon would have been working together earlier, and possibly would have allowed fewer ships through the wormhole before mining it.

Also, it's very possible that Picard with his mad diplomacy skillz could have ended the Maquis conflict more quickly and put the Cardassians in the position to need to deal with the Dominion.

Once we got to the place we were at the start of season 6, Sisko does better than Picard, but Picard would have almost certainly done better before the war to keep the Dominion from getting the advantage they had at that point.

Section 31 infected the Founders did not end the war in the least. Being diseased did not change the the military decisions made by the Dominion. You can argue that giving Odo the chance to heal them decreased the bloodshed in the last episode. But if the Founders had all died and sent the Gem'Hadar on a kamikaze rage to the last man it would have killed way, way more people.
 
Well, they did negotiate a treaty with the Cardassians, but that does not make the case that Picard would succeed without Jedi Mind Tricks.

Well, technically yes. I wouldn't want to make a case that the Cardassians actually benefited from that treaty in any way, though. They also violated their non-agression pact with the Romulans and were up to some shady stuff on Bajor/DS9, as well.

Picard would have acted exactly the same as Sisko in the simulation in The Search, so Dominion tactics would have been similar. It's hard to say what Picard would have done in certain situations, he probably would have done better preventing the Klingon conflict since he would have had the ability to force Gowron to listen to him, so Federation and Klingon would have been working together earlier, and possibly would have allowed fewer ships through the wormhole before mining it.

Also, it's very possible that Picard with his mad diplomacy skillz could have ended the Maquis conflict more quickly and put the Cardassians in the position to need to deal with the Dominion.

Once we got to the place we were at the start of season 6, Sisko does better than Picard, but Picard would have almost certainly done better before the war to keep the Dominion from getting the advantage they had at that point.

Section 31 infected the Founders did not end the war in the least. Being diseased did not change the the military decisions made by the Dominion. You can argue that giving Odo the chance to heal them decreased the bloodshed in the last episode. But if the Founders had all died and sent the Gem'Hadar on a kamikaze rage to the last man it would have killed way, way more people.

I agree Picard has a trump card with the Klingons. I don't see how he would end the Maquis conflict any faster. Their whole problem IS diplomacy, so more diplomacy is not a solution likely to be welcomed. Unless we're saying Picard could convince the Cardassians to pull out of the DMZ entirely, I think his approach takes more time than Sisko's, not less, and possibly never succeeds at all. Plus, TNG had their own Cardassian and Maquis episodes and he didn't produce any miracle treaties then.

But I agree the Section 31 plan was seriously dangerous and the Federation was incredibly lucky that Bashir found a cure.
 
He found a miracle solution in Journey’s End, granted that was just one colony.

I’m not saying he would have ended the conflict but he wouldn’t have made it all about one person’s betrayal.
 
He found a miracle solution in Journey’s End, granted that was just one colony.

I’m not saying he would have ended the conflict but he wouldn’t have made it all about one person’s betrayal.

The solution in Journey's End is literally the same kind of solution driving the Maquis in the first place. Federation citizens becoming Cardassian citizens and inevitably being treated unequally. The episode just ended before the deal went south.

And for the record, I think Sisko's treatment of the Maquis is questionable at several points, but he didn't 'make it all about one person's betrayal'. Eddington made it all about himself when he graduated the Maquis to bioterrorism on a planetary scale. Anything short of Eddington's death or arrest was an almost guaranteed war with the Cardassians.
 
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