OK, I'm calling crap on this whole post. I'm a huge of what's being done it Trek Lit right now, and it really gets on my nerves when people start calling it doom and gloom. Other than a few chapters of Destiny, I really do think what we have gotten since then has been incredibly positive. Sure some bad stuff happened, and we have seen the ideals of the Federation and Star Trek in general challenged quite a bit, but in all of those situation those ideals have triumphed in the end. To me this is incredibly positive, and shows how good the ideals are and how necessary they are when things start to go bad, and I think at a time when things seem to be going bad in the real world it can be important for Trek to show us this. And I really think in order to get things fresh Trek Lit really needed to bring about a major change to keep things interesting, and IMO Destiny and the Typhon Pact have done just that.^Of course the Pact's survival isn't guaranteed, but my point is that its failure isn't guaranteed either. It could go either way. That's the whole thing that's interesting about the Pact -- the fact that anything could happen. It could be, yes, that its internal tensions will tear it apart. But it could also be that its members will benefit from their cooperation, that they'll come to understand the value of cooperation, and that the more selfish and aggressive factions within its members will be marginalized in favor of factions that pursue a stronger, more peaceful coalition.
And considering that the five core members of the Federation remained united for 221 years before one of them left, and that it gained well over a hundred additional members in that time, it's rather silly to claim that it's an intrinsically unstable civilization. So the Federation lost one member and another one maybe considered leaving (in one version of the continuity). So what? There was that time when nearly a third of the states within the United States of America seceded and formed their own separate government that went to war with the Union. That's a lot worse than any internal strife the Federation's ever suffered, but America's still here a century and a half later, bigger and more united than it was then.
So it's ridiculously premature to look at a little strife and assume the Federation -- or the Pact -- is doomed. Just because a risk exists doesn't mean it's guaranteed to happen. Star Trek is about optimism, remember? It's about believing that positive outcomes can happen and doing the hard work to make them happen. It's not about whining about gloom and doom and letting it become a self-fulfilling prophecy because you're too cynical or too lazy to fight for a better future.
I'd be more inclined to believe you if TrekLit wasn't all doom and gloom for the past decade! First it's the Dominion War, then the Borg are acting up again and hell bent at exterminating all life in the Alpha Quadrant (WHAT!) that only a deus ex machina was able to stop, then a group of nations that have been hostile to the Federation or the Klingons have banded together, then a potential ally to the Federation has been dissolved, now we have one of the founding members of the Federation seceding, it's just one big train wreck waiting to happen. While the expanded universe couldn't do anything about the Dominion War, it is responsible for everything else.
Tell you what, I'm certain the main TrekLit has become so stale and repetitive that I know the Typhon Pact will end in either of four ways:
- The Romulans will seek to control the entire Typhon Pact like an expanded version of their empire. One member state, possibly the Tzenkethi, will chafe at Romulan dominance and attempt to break away from the Pact. The Romulans will of course use force against the Tzenkethi to keep them in line. The other nations will be alarmed and also try to seceed. Next thing you know, the Typhon Pact collapses into a civil war from which it will never recover.
- Same as the above but with the Tzenkethi and Romulan positions reversed.
- The writers are setting things up for some big overwrought War(!) Arc that will pit the Federation Alliance against the Typhon Pact. The Typhon Pact will lose and be forcibly broken up. The decision to break up the Typhon Pact will of course lead to another of the Federation's founder states, let's say the Vulcans this time, to secede and the Federation will collapse into civil war. And they'll probably kill off Picard at the end because TPTB apparently have a grudge against the Federation.
- All of the above.
The Star Trek Expanded Universe is wearing itself ragged. If it keeps on the way it's going it'll end up like the Star Wars expanded universe, one pointless conflict after another continuing long after anyone has lost all interest.
I think it's also worth pointing out that when the Typhon Pact novels were announced the authors repeated reassured us that this was not going to be turning into just another war story or big event, and so far they have kept to their word, and I haven't seen any reason to believe that this won't continue to be the case for the foreseeable future.