Random Thoughts...or...What's on Your Mind?

[Discofan]

It must be about the twelfth tree that has fallen across my running path in the last three years. That means that my odds of being killed by a falling tree are about a thousand times higher than of winning the lottery (the big one) if I bought about ten tickets every week which one of my neighbors does. A thousand times!!! The odds of the average smoker dying of a painful cancer are much higher than that of course. But the same person who'll bet that they won't get a likely painful cancer by smoking will buy lottery tickets that are very unlikely to be the winning ones. Playing the odds on one hand and totally ignoring them on the other!

 

[oberth]

It must be about the twelfth tree that has fallen across my running path in the last three years. That means that my odds of being killed by a falling tree are about a thousand times higher than of winning the lottery (the big one) if I bought about ten tickets every week which one of my neighbors does. A thousand times!!! The odds of the average smoker dying of a painful cancer are much higher than that of course. But the same person who'll bet that they won't get a likely painful cancer by smoking will buy lottery tickets that are very unlikely to be the winning ones. Playing the odds on one hand and totally ignoring them on the other!

check your math - if your odds were that bad and all those trees coming your way you'd be long gone

to the contrary - those odds must be a lot lower; you're still alive, after all

... what i said about statistics is true, btw

 

[Mr. Laser Beam]

I have also had bad experiences with trees.

We had a major storm here a few years ago and I think half the trees in the city blew down. All the ones in my yard did, anyway. The one in my front yard crashed onto my front porch, and the one in the back knocked over a power pole (my power was out for four days).

Trees are evil. The one good thing about all this is that I have much less raking to do. (The leaves from my neighbors' trees sometimes end up on my lawn, but I can always mow them into oblivion. The leaves, that is.)

 

[Discofan]

check your math - if your odds were that bad and all those trees coming your way you'd be long gone

to the contrary - those odds must be a lot lower; you're still alive, after all

... what i said about statistics is true, btw

Let's see:

The chances of winning the lottery with one lottery ticket are one in 15 million. If you buy ten tickets a week for three years that's 1500 tickets that means you have about one chance in 10, 000 of winning the lottery.

Yeah, you're right it's about even Stephen, between winning the lottery and getting hit by a tree, IE one in ten thousand.

Well, that means that I have about the same odds of one day dying crushed by a tree as my neighbor does of becoming a multi-millionaire?

 

[Gary Mitchell]

Trees are beautiful and give us oxygen to breathe.

 

[oberth]

Let's see:

The chances of winning the lottery with one lottery ticket are one in 15 million. If you buy ten tickets a week for three years that's 1500 tickets that means you have about one chance in 10, 000 of winning the lottery.

Yeah, you're right it's about even Stephen, between winning the lottery and getting hit by a tree, IE one in ten thousand.

Well, that means that I have about the same odds of one day dying crushed by a tree as my neighbor does of becoming a multi-millionaire?

i was talking deadly trees - surviving 12 'attacks' shows you are more or less imune - probably the same with your neighbour


... and his chances don't add up as it's a new lottery every week

 

[Discofan]

i was talking deadly trees - surviving 12 'attacks' shows you are more or less imune - probably the same with your neighbour

I am not sure I made myself clear. In three years about twelve trees have fallen across the path that I cover every day. A day is equal to about 80, 000 seconds. it takes me about 0.6 seconds to cover the zone in which I could be hurt by the falling tree, multiply by twelve that makes about one chance in 10, 000 of being hurt by a tree.

 

[oberth]

I am not sure I made myself clear. In three years about twelve trees have fallen across the path that I cover every day. A day is equal to about 80, 000 seconds. it takes me about 0.6 seconds to cover the zone in which I could be hurt by the falling tree, multiply by twelve that makes about one chance in 10, 000 of being hurt by a tree.

most people die from a falling tree on the first try - and you should only count the time when both you and the tree are there - your chance to be hit by one of those trees is one in twelve as them falling down is part of the equation - otherwise it needed to be random trees.

 

[Discofan]

most people die from a falling tree on the first try - and you should only count the time when both you and the tree are there - your chance to be hit by one of those trees is one in twelve as them falling down is part of the equation - otherwise it needed to be random trees.

Let's just agree to disagree at this point.

 

[oberth]

Let's just agree to disagree at this point.

if you think math is sth to be agreed on so be it

 

[Jim Klag]

if you think math is sth to be agreed on so be it

Agreed. There is only correct and incorrect - not something to be agreed or disagreed upon.

 

[Discofan]

if you think math is sth to be agreed on so be it

This has very little to do with Math and a lot to do with communication.

Let me make it simple:

If I spend one second under a tree every day and that tree falls. What are the chances of me being under the tree when it falls?

Can you answer that simple question?

 

[oberth]

This has very little to do with Math and a lot to do with communication.

if you think so

 

[Discofan]

if you think so

Reread that post. I think you missed a few things.

 

[oberth]

Reread that post. I think you missed a few things.

you only can be hit by a falling tree if there actually is one - if there is no tree falling or you are somewhere else it's irrelevant - your chance so far (you said dead, right) is 12 to 1 and you are still alive.

you can buy lottery tickets for centuries - it's a new 'drawing' every week - to enhance your chance you need to buy all those tickets at one drawing

it really is statistics 1 on 1

 

[Discofan]

you only can be hit by a falling tree if there actually is one - if there is no tree falling or you are somewhere else it's irrelevant - your chance so far (you said dead, right) is 12 to 1 and you are still alive.

you can buy lottery tickets for centuries - it's a new 'drawing' every week - to enhance your chance you need to buy all those tickets at one drawing

it really is statistics 1 on 1

Ok, I'll repeat the problem. It is very simple:

1) I spend one second EACH DAY under a tree.

2) That tree falls at some point.

Question: What are the chances of me being under that tree when it falls?

Can you give a straight answer to THAT?

 

[oberth]

Ok, I'll repeat the problem. It is very simple:

1) I spend one second EACH DAY under a tree.

2) That tree falls at some point.

Question: What are the chances of me being under that tree when it falls?

Can you give a straight answer to THAT?

to be hit by a falling tree it needs to be falling and you need to be under it - nothing else is relevant

that's not your chance to survive a falling tree that's your chance to be under a special tree when it falls - it's different.

unfortunately i'm a bit weak on english terminology for that. to compute your chance to survive a falling tree two things are necessary

1. the tree falls
2. you're roughly 'under' it

for my granddad the chance to survive the eastern front (both of them didn't) necessitated to actually fight the russians

the time not under that tree when it falls just doesn't count

 

[Discofan]

to be hit by a falling tree it needs to be falling and you need to be under it - nothing else is relevant

that's not your chance to survive a falling tree that's your chance to be under a special tree when it falls - it's different.

unfortunately i'm a bit weak on english terminology for that. to compute your chance to survive a falling tree two things are necessary

1. the tree falls
2. you're roughly 'under' it

for my granddad the chance to survive the eastern front (both of them didn't) necessitated to actually fight the russians

the time not under that tree when it falls just doesn't count

Ok, I've had just about enough of this gibberish. I was asking a simple answer to a simple problem and you give me bullshit.

The answer is 1 in 86, 400. Because 86, 400 is the number of seconds in one day. I spend one second each day under the tree so the chances of me being hit by that tree are 1 in 86,400.

If you don't know the answer just say so.

 

[Sibyl]

This is a rock:

 

[Jim Klag]

This has very little to do with Math and a lot to do with communication.

Let me make it simple:

If I spend one second under a tree every day and that tree falls. What are the chances of me being under the tree when it falls?

Can you answer that simple question?

Put simply your chances of being hit by the tree in your silly scenario are exctly zero. It takes much longer than a second for a tree to fall. Even someone stupid enough to stand under a tree for 1 sec./day should escape unscathed. Got any more silly questions?