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Question about Xindi blowing up Earth

The effect of the original Xindi probe in "The Expanse" was much more believable, as it seemed designed to sterilise the surface rather than actually explode the planet.

True, although the tactic was far less believable -- why test it on their actual target and give us a year of warning, rather than testing it on some uninhabited planet far away so that we'd have no idea what was coming?

Although I guess it could've been to test Earth's defenses prior to the big attack. After all, if not for Future Guy, Earth would've had no idea where the attack had come from.
 
The two stock answers:

1) This was no test: Earth was intended to die. It's not as if they could have done anything to stop the Last Trump from playing out the entire piece - a chance malfunction (or a devious move in the temporal chess?) was the only thing that saved the rest of Earth.

2) The main attack would have come before the test. With time travel, what could be more natural than that? Indeed, when the main weapon was deployed, our heroes ended up in the 1940s; perhaps that's when the Big Beam would have hit, if not for another suspicious malfunction that either stuck the big weapon in the 2150s or then sent Shran's ship to the 1940s.

Timo Saloniemi
 
I've head-canoned that some Xindi (maybe a scientist/engineer), who was against the whole genocide thing, kept petitioning the council to test the weapon on Earth precisely so that the humans would have a heads up to what was coming. There's probably some plothole in this idea but I like it.
 
The effect of the original Xindi probe in "The Expanse" was much more believable, as it seemed designed to sterilise the surface rather than actually explode the planet.

True, although the tactic was far less believable -- why test it on their actual target and give us a year of warning, rather than testing it on some uninhabited planet far away so that we'd have no idea what was coming?

Although I guess it could've been to test Earth's defenses prior to the big attack. After all, if not for Future Guy, Earth would've had no idea where the attack had come from.
At this point, my guess for the motivation of using the test weapon on Earth is the Sphere Builders were desperate for any advantage. They might have decided any reduction and interference in the human population would have sufficient ripple effects in the future to warrant even a half assed attack. Every dead person in ENT, by the 26th century, could account for thousands of people disappearing from the time stream.

Roughly 1 million people were killed or injured. If they all died, then 6 billion people in the future could have disappeared. Later Archer says the estimate is at 3 million.
 
The idea of blowing up a planet is a very silly one.
Don't tell that to this guy.

1509090427290102.jpg
 
At this point, my guess for the motivation of using the test weapon on Earth is the Sphere Builders were desperate for any advantage. They might have decided any reduction and interference in the human population would have sufficient ripple effects in the future to warrant even a half assed attack. Every dead person in ENT, by the 26th century, could account for thousands of people disappearing from the time stream.

Roughly 1 million people were killed or injured. If they all died, then 6 billion people in the future could have disappeared.

Not necessarily. Because of the way genes are passed down, the odds that any given ancestor contributed any genes or chromosomes at all to your genetic makeup decreases the further you go back. After just 5 generations, it becomes all but inevitable that one or more of your great-to-the-fourth grandparents will have no genetic relationship to you, only a genealogical one. After 10 generations, you'll only have genes from about one in eight of your ancestors. By 14 or 15 generations back, you're essentially getting no genes at all from those ancestors. From the 22nd century to the 26th is 400 years, which is about 16 generations. So removing those few million people from the timeline might have no genetic effect at all on the existence of any individuals in the Sphere-Builders' time.

Well, okay, the fact that they were all in the same area increases the chance that multiple individuals among them would've been part of a given descendant's genetic tree, though that's less true in the age of global (and interplanetary) mass transit than it would've been in the past. Also, some estimates put it at more like 1000 years before we run out of direct genetic ancestors. But this article points out how rapidly our pool of ancestors grows until we can basically say we're all descended from everyone. The human genetic pool is finite and strongly intermixed, so there's a huge amount of redundancy. If an ancestor who provided certain genes is erased from history, they might just be replaced by a different ancestor who provides essentially the same genes, just a small part of the whole genetic code (as Poul Anderson proposed in his Time Patrol stories). After all, those ancestors will all have the same ancestors as each other if you go back far enough.

Of course, that's just genetics. It's possible that different people would perform different actions that would cause future events to unfold differently. But only in some cases would those actions be pivotal enough to have changes that amplified over time rather than being damped out by larger-scale events. For instance, removing Edith Keeler from history had a larger global impact than removing Rodent, the bum in the alley. But that would be more likely to change what events occurred than who was born. Sure, if my grandparents never met and gave birth to my mother, I wouldn't exist; but if two of my 32 great-great-great-grandparents had never met and given birth to one of my 16 great-great-grandparents, then odds are I'd still exist with maybe a couple of different chromosomes. At least one of those great-great-great-grandparents would probably have married someone else and still had a kid, right?

Which could go a long way toward explaining why so many of the same people exist in both the Prime Universe and the Mirror Universe. Although it doesn't explain why they keep ending up serving on the same ships or stations together.
 
And that's pure statistics, too: with an infinite number of mirrors to choose from, one can always look at the one where the heroes (even if now villains) are serving together.

Beyond that, it's back to scifi again: perhaps, for reason X, one cannot look at mirrors other than those where the image is that close to the original?

Timo Saloniemi
 
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