Proxima Centauri has an earth like planet!

[Asbo Zaprudder]

If you plug your data into Bayes' Theorem below, what does it predict?

P(A | B) = P(B | A). P(A)/P(B)

ETA: P(A | B) = probability that you die in a car accident given that your friend did
P(B | A) = probability that your friend died in a car accident if you die in a car accident in the future
P(A) = probability that you die in a car accident
P(B) = probability that your friend died in a car accident

P(B | A) = 0 and P(B) = 1 so P(A | B) = 0.P(A) = 0
P(A) remains whatever it is, independent of whatever happened to your friend.

 

[locutus101]

If you plug your data into Bayes' Theorem below, what does it predict?

P(A | B) = P(B | A). P(A)/P(B)

ETA: P(A | B) = probability that you die in a car accident given that your friend did
P(B | A) = probability that your friend died in a car accident if you die in a car accident in the future
P(A) = probability that you die in a car accident
P(B) = probability that your friend died in a car accident

P(B | A) = 0 and P(B) = 1 so P(A | B) = 0.P(A) = 0
P(A) remains whatever it is, independent of whatever happened to your friend.

Believe it or not, but I already knew that. I am just saying that no one really knows if they'll still be alive next year or even tomorrow for that matter. A brain aneurysm could kill you in a matter of seconds even if you are twenty.

 

[Asbo Zaprudder]

Indeed. Que sera, sera.

Unless you a heptapod translator.

 

[locutus101]

Indeed. Que sera, sera.

Unless you a heptapod translator.

Is that an octopod with a severed limb?

 

[Asbo Zaprudder]

It would almost be a spoiler for an upcoming movie soon to arrive at a cinema near you, except that heptapods have no concept of spoilers, of course.

 

[locutus101]

It would almost be a spoiler for an upcoming movie soon to arrive at a cinema near you, except that heptapods have no concept of spoilers, of course.

They must spend most of their time trying to figure out which limb to move next.

 

[Captain of the USS Averof]

Is that an octopod with a severed limb?

It's the Story of Your Life!

It would almost be a spoiler for an upcoming movie soon to arrive at a cinema near you, except that heptapods have no concept of spoilers, of course.

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[locutus101]

It's the Story of Your Life!

Thanks for the tip.

 

[Asbo Zaprudder]

The heptapods seem to be contemporary compatibilists.

 

[Captain of the USS Averof]

The heptapods seem to be contemporary compatibilists.

Not to mention… Demons!

Spoiler: "Arrival" Deception Exposed!

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[Asbo Zaprudder]

Yeah, that guy saw a giant egg. I watched his video and I saw a giant suppository instead.

 

[Gingerbread Demon]

It can happen to anyone. A young person I knew died in a car accident a couple of months ago. I could be next.

Well that is true...... But old people are more likely to die of natural causes sooner.

 

[Gingerbread Demon]

That ship in Arrival looked like a big poo

 

[publiusr]

Call it cough- lozenge shaped. There was said to be a similar pumpkinseed like test-aircraft that used external combustion:
http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/systems/aircraft/pde.htm

Said to be the source of donuts on a rope contrail.

My guess is that was left by a captured MiG 25 Foxbat whith a pilot that junked its engines--getting a good chewing out when he got back to base.

 

[Dryson]

What could the James Webb telescope see of the closest exoplanet?
http://arstechnica.com/science/2016...atmosphere-james-webb-telescope-could-see-it/

Whether there is any liquid present depends in part on whether the planet supports an atmosphere, and that is a hard question to answer. If Proxima Centauri b had formed near its present orbit, it might have seen its early atmosphere blown away during one of its host star’s more active phases. But researchers know frustratingly little about the evolution of red dwarf stars like Proxima Centauri. Furthermore, the planet might have formed farther out and migrated inward later, in which case the star's activity wouldn't matter.

The JWST would confirm if there was an ozone or not on the planet.

 

[Asbo Zaprudder]

[SIZE=doesn't matter]Would you care to add any "content" of your own?[/SIZE]

 

[Dryson]

http://www.space.com/34091-asteroid-strikes-deliver-earth-phosphorus.html

If meteorites brought enough phosphorus to Earth that contributed to the development of life on Earth then the same phosphorus meteor shower or swarm could have also have influenced Proxima b as well a seeing as how Earth is only 4.1 ly from Proxima b.

The determining factor of the possibility of Proxima b being influenced by phosphorus meteor showers is whether the meteors came from within our own solar system and from the Rings of Saturn or if they were exosolar in origin. If proven to be exosolar then quite possibly Proxima b would have experienced phosphorus meteor strikes around the same time that Earth did or before or after Earth experienced the meteorite strikes depending upon what direction the meteor shower would have come from.

 

[Asbo Zaprudder]

@Dryson, don't you remember that I mentioned that Alpha Centauri A and B and Proxima are just passing visitors that happen to be in the neighbourhood of the solar system during our current epoch? Those stars were nowhere near us less than a million years ago and they will be nowhere near us again in less than a million years' time.

 

[locutus101]

@Dryson, don't you remember that I mentioned that Alpha Centauri A and B and Proxima are just passing visitors that happen to be in the neighbourhood of the solar system during our current epoch? Those stars were nowhere near us less than a million years ago and they will be nowhere near us again in less than a million years' time.

Yes, I remember someone saying something about that. I just didn't remember it was you, sorry.

 

[Asbo Zaprudder]

You're not @Dryson though, so why apologise, unless...

ETA: I don't expect an apology from anyone BTW. I was just pointing out a logic flaw that I'd called out previously.