Which is why it makes sense to move it to a night where expectations are lower so that the ratings don't have to be as high to count as a success. Ratings are not absolutes. They're highly context-dependent. A number that's too low on one night can be just right on another.
Yes, but the problem is most shows take a significant drop in ratings on the move to Friday. In fact over the last 5 years I can't find one single show that either held steady or improved from the move.
Typically you see drops of 20-30%, often even larger. Last year Smallville dropped 36.6% from its move. This year SN is doing better then most with a 15% season drop to date from its 9pm Thursday birth.
Except Smallville kept enough viewers that not only did it get a 2nd season on Friday night, but it would get a 3rd if it wasn't well past time for the show to end.
OK, lets actually look at this rationally.
The CW range of viewers for the last two years is on average 3.6 million to 1.6 million viewers.
The CW has had difficulty in getting enough programs to cover a ten hour schedule (so much so that the first year Smallville moved it ran with encores of Top Model for the full season).
The CW operates at a loss. It has never generated profit in its 5 years on the air.
These are all significant differences between Fox and the CW.
Fox is most likely not going to operate a show at a loss, unless one of two conditions are in place. THe first in performs so well in other formats that it generates more then enough to cover the difference. And that, that doesn't help Fringe at all, as Fox doesn't get a single dollar of revenue from other sources, Warners gets it. Or that it achieves ratings (that while negative to the cost) are so much higher that it benefits another legitimated owned product of Fox. And this could happen (but would be more likely to happen if Fringe was the 8pm hour as one could directly track retention), unfortunately Fox isn't the 8pm hour. And the networks have a large amount of data that shows the 8pm show has more direct impact on the 9pm shows, then the reverse (though the 9pm hour does impact the 8pm hour).
The fall before Smallville moved it was averaging a 1.7 in adults 18-49, when it moved a year later its Fall average dropped to a 1.1. It went from being the CW strongest performer in adults 18-49 to the 5th.
Another difference between the two. Fringe doesn't give the largest scripted audience and adult 18-49 numbers for Fox, far from it. So when it drops its not going from #1 down to a little better then middle of the road. Its going from near the bottom to the bottom.
I am sorry, because I do like Fringe, but its going to most likely be a very rough ride for the show, during this spring.
