Predict the Best Picture Oscar noms.

[Kegg]

Up in the Air had comedic elements, but it was more of a "dramedy". Quite a somber one at that. It's hard to call a film that deals with job loss and job insecurity categorically a comedy.

We've had comedies about nuclear war and the holocaust. To be honest, if the film had been more of a sharp satire about job loss and less about the banal dramedy of George Clooney's personal life, it would have been a better movie. The final montage

Spoiler: Up in the Air

of hey look, they all got back on their feet apparently, that makes you leave the theatre with a smile right? RIGHT?

was a little much, too.

Basically I wanted Thank You For Smoking (Thank You For Losing Your Job?).

I have yet to see A Serious Man, but I've heard it got rave reviews.

It's a dramedy too, albeit a good one - scratch that, a brilliant one. Powerful performances right across the board, a wonderfully perceptive and bitterly funny script, and, well, the direction is okay... or maybe a little better than. One of the best films of 2009.

And I guess we'll find out if our nomination predictions were at all accurate tomorrow morning when they announce the Academy Award nominations.[/QUOTE]
I'll say it again fellas: The White Ribbon. Tie me to a noose if you want, but that's getting Best Foreign Picture.

 

[Roger Wilco]

I would really like Tarantino to win the director's Oscar. I wasn't impressed by Hurt Locker and Avatar was incredibly boring to me; Inglorious Basterds on the other hand really is his masterpiece imo and easily my most favourite movie of the year, for many different reasons.

 

[Kira's Mom]

District 9 got a Best Picture nomination!

Also Blind Side, Up, and A Serious Man.

And everything else I thought would be nominated was.

I think Stanley Tucci was nominated for the wrong movie. He was awesome in Julie and Julia.

Yay, Carey Mulligan! She's going to be a huge star someday.

 

[CaptainCanada]

The nominees:

Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Genuinely amazed that The Blind Side made it in (and A Serious Man somewhat less so; it had a ton of critics' buzz, but awards organizations prior hadn't exactly been free with their praise).

I got 8/10, then.

Contrary to what I suggested last night, Best Supporting Actor was exactly the same five guys as the previous two organizations (has that ever happened before?). But yay, Christopher Plummer finally has an Oscar nomination.

Up got not just a Best Animated Film, but Best Picture, Original Screenplay and Score, and Sound Editing nominations.

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince got a cinematography nomination.

By number of nominations, Avatar & The Hurt Locker are in first place with 9 apiece; Inglourious Basterds (8), and then Up in the Air & Precious (6). I continue to think that Avatar's chances get more and more diminished; it doesn't have any nominations for acting (not insurmountable for Best Picture), and it doesn't have a writing nomination either.

 

[JacksonArcher]

Really awesome to see District 9 nominated for Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, Best Visual Effects and Best Editing. Really awesome.

 

[trevanian]

Really awesome to see District 9 nominated for Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, Best Visual Effects and Best Editing. Really awesome.

Seconded.

Though I wish A SINGLE MAN had gotten more than just a Firth nom, it is just not something Academy is going to go for -- it isn't even getting tech coverage in spite of really nice cinematography.

 

[JacksonArcher]

The nominees:

Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Genuinely amazed that The Blind Side made it in (and A Serious Man somewhat less so; it had a ton of critics' buzz, but awards organizations prior hadn't exactly been free with their praise).

I got 8/10, then.

I got 8/10 as well. I'm also amazed and stunned The Blind Side received a Best Picture nomination. That movie was far from Oscar material. How did it get nominated when other worthy contenders like A Single Man, Invictus and most importantly (500) Days of Summer didn't make the cut?

I am especially mad about (500) Days of Summer.

Up got not just a Best Animated Film, but Best Picture, Original Screenplay and Score, and Sound Editing nominations.

I'm also not happy with Up getting a Best Picture nomination when it received a Best Animated Film nomination -- which it will win. Other valuable films were passed.

Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince got a cinematography nomination.

Happy to see that. Well-deserved.

By number of nominations, Avatar & The Hurt Locker are in first place with 9 apiece; Inglourious Basterds (8), and then Up in the Air & Precious (6). I continue to think that Avatar's chances get more and more diminished; it doesn't have any nominations for acting (not insurmountable for Best Picture), and it doesn't have a writing nomination either.

As you said, many films that did not obtain any acting nominations went on to win Best Picture, namely The Return of the King. I am surprised at the lack of writing nomination but I am extremely glad Neil Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell received one for District 9. Very well-deserved.

Also, Star Trek received four nominations: Best Visual Effects (a category it shares with two other sci-fi films, Avatar and District 9), Best Make-Up, Best Sound Mixing and Best Sound Editing.

It's a great year for science-fiction. Rarely has science-fiction been so openly received at the Academy Awards.

 

[23skidoo]

Looking at the list the two big surprises for me were District 9 - because I honestly didn't see another SF film getting a Best Picture nomination after Avatar - and Up, because I remember the controversy when Beauty and the Beast was nominated for Best Picture, and my understanding was the Best Animated Film category was created with the express purpose of keeping animated films out of Best Picture contention -- which I never felt was particularly fair and was probably the reason why Wall-E and arguably the first Shrek never got a nomination for BP back when there were only 5 candidates.

If I had to pick a film to root for, it would actually be Up. Unlike District 9 and Avatar I haven't heard a single bad thing about it from people I know who've gone to see it.

My criticisms of Avatar's story were vindicated a bit by the fact that while it got BP and Best Director, and a slew of technical nominations (Star Trek doesn't stand a chance) it didn't get a writing nomination. I sort of see this nomination more as an acknowledgment of the technology and film-making as opposed to the "whole picture" which would have also included writing and acting nominations (something Titanic scored). One film I can compare this to is The Broadway Melody, the Best Picture winner of 1930 which is a pretty awful film but won because it was the first full-out musical film and it was recognized for being groundbreaking, not for the film itself. Avatar has a bit more going for it than The Broadway Melody, but the basic concept of the argument still stands - it may win for being groundbreaking, not necessarily because of its story or other factors.

All that said, Up notwithstanding, the one film in the list which stands the chance of being the spoiler is An Education. It's a small, quiet film, and we've seen it happen before that the Best Picture ends up being a much smaller film than the other nominees. Up is my favorite to win, but if I were to place a wager, it would be on My Education.

Alex

 

[CaptainCanada]

and Up, because I remember the controversy when Beauty and the Beast was nominated for Best Picture, and my understanding was the Best Animated Film category was created with the express purpose of keeping animated films out of Best Picture contention -- which I never felt was particularly fair and was probably the reason why Wall-E and arguably the first Shrek never got a nomination for BP back when there were only 5 candidates.

The rationale behind Best Animated Film was much like Best Foreign Language Film (and, I suppose, like Documentary, etc.) - recognizing subgenres of film that Academy voters don't nominate often if ever. Beauty and the Beast was the only animated film to ever make the cut under the old regime, because it's a looked-down-upon genre (comedy is another one, to a much lesser extent; there have only been two comedy Best Picture winners in the last 30 years). Up wouldn't have been nominated if there were just 5, but with 10 there's more room (one suspects a number of other Pixar films from years past would have made the list under this new system).

I got 8/10 as well. I'm also amazed and stunned The Blind Side received a Best Picture nomination. That movie was far from Oscar material. How did it get nominated when other worthy contenders like A Single Man, Invictus and most importantly (500) Days of Summer didn't make the cut?

It made a lot of money, and presumably thus a lot of people liked it; not so different from Rocky getting a nomination (and a win), I suppose. Given that the rationale to expanding the category to 10 was to nominate more popular films, I guess it isn't surprising (looking at the top five this year, you'd have had one behemoth (Avatar), one very strong-performing movie (Inglourious Basterds), two small-budget films that did really well but less than $100 million (Up in the Air and Precious), and one midget (The Hurt Locker).

I'm also not happy with Up getting a Best Picture nomination when it received a Best Animated Film nomination -- which it will win. Other valuable films were passed.

Best Animated Feature is a supplement to Best Picture, not a replacement; frankly, it's about time that animated films started getting a shot at the bigtime as well. I'd set Up quite easily above any of the three earlier films mentioned.

I am surprised at the lack of writing nomination but I am extremely glad Neil Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell received one for District 9. Very well-deserved.

I'm not surprised at that; its screenplay was generally assessed as mediocre even by critics who really liked the film.

Other thoughts:

- Original Song is a category that has really lost prominence due to the withering of non-original musicals and the like, but there's a decent collection this year, including the song from Crazy Heart, a serious drama, that is actually a real feature of the film itself. The latest Disney musical of course gets a few, but I'm surprised to see "Down in New Orleans" chosen over "Friends on the Other Side".

- I've currently seen 7 of the 10 BP nominees; haven't seen The Blind Side, District 9, or A Serious Man; will definitely see the last of those, don't know about the others.

 

[OmahaStar]

I cannot express how happy I am at this moment. One of the best picture nominees is a movie called A Serious Man. That movie co-stars Rachel Grubb, a friend from Minneapolis, who stars in Monster of Phantom Lake and Cave Women From Mars. I am thrilled for her, and whether the film wins or not, holy crap, she's in an Oscar-nominated movie! *happy*

 

[melancholymecha]

Really awesome to see District 9 nominated for Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay, Best Visual Effects and Best Editing. Really awesome.

Im so happy to see it got nomed. It probably wont win anything but hey it'll be worth it for me if it means I get to see Sharlto Copley in a tux on Oscar night.

 

[Harvey]

I have to say, I've seen Up in the Air twice, and I graded it an 'A' both times, but it hasn't been a movie that's stuck with me. I don't think it's quite as shallow as Kegg does, but I'm starting to come around to his criticisms.

And some of the more unbelievable elements that happen at the end of The Hurt Locker have made me appreciate the film less over time as well (though Bigelow deserves at least a nomination for her terse and excellent direction).

Of course, the fact that nobody is paying attention to my two favorite films of the year, Adventureland and Moon is pretty annoying. And the other two awards-worthy films Kegg mentions, A Serious Man and Inglourious Basterds, are both long-shots.

 

[Kegg]

^
Heh. I'm surprised people listen to my inane ramblings; the interesting thing is I know very few people who went to Up who actually liked it - I enjoyed it more then they did, for what that is worth.

And I agree, it's a shame Moon got no awards at all. An expected shame, however. One hopes a subsequent Duncan Jones film does better, both financially and in the awards.

(and A Serious Man somewhat less so; it had a ton of critics' buzz, but awards organizations prior hadn't exactly been free with their praise).

I'm also surprised, but pleasantly so. The absence of Oscar buzz made absolutely no sense to me; there's really no way that I could understand that it wasn't a potential contender. My Coen fanboyism, perhaps, but it's well acted, written, directed, shot and acclaimed, what more does one need? That said it's probably there to round out the number with a critically praised entry from beloved cinematic geniuses; I would be very surprised (again, also pleasantly) if the film won.

I continue to think that Avatar's chances get more and more diminished; it doesn't have any nominations for acting (not insurmountable for Best Picture), and it doesn't have a writing nomination either.

As I said upthread I would have been very surprised had it got either, and I don't think it effects the film's chances of winning Best Picture in the slightest. It's not the writing or acting that's deemed extra-ordinary, after all.

 

[Stone_Cold_Sisko]

I love the 10 film nomination for Best Picture... there are actually films I like on it!

 

[suarezguy]

Avatar, An Education and Up were all below average in my view; haven't seen the other best picture nominees.

 

[DarthPipes]

Really happy to see District 9 get nominated for four Oscars, especially Best Picture. I thought it was a Best Picture candidate when I first saw it and it was a far better film than Avatar.

Also have to say I'm glad to see Christopher Plummer finally get an Oscar nomination.

 

[Starbreaker]

Well, I got 8 of the 10 right. The Blind Side and District 9 snuck up on me.

 

[JacksonArcher]

Best Animated Feature is a supplement to Best Picture, not a replacement; frankly, it's about time that animated films started getting a shot at the bigtime as well. I'd set Up quite easily above any of the three earlier films mentioned.

The sad part is, Up will likely win the Best Animated Film. Which means it's placement in Best Film is erroneous. It should have either just been nominated for Best Film or Best Animated Film; getting both is just unfair to other films which also could have been nominated.

I'm not surprised at that; its screenplay was generally assessed as mediocre even by critics who really liked the film.

However, Cameron was nominated for a Best Screenplay award at the Golden Globes so I think it was expected for him to receive the same nomination at the Academy Awards, However, I'm very happy District 9 won in its place.

I've currently seen 7 of the 10 BP nominees; haven't seen The Blind Side, District 9, or A Serious Man; will definitely see the last of those, don't know about the others.

I've seen 6 of the 10 Best Picture nominees, meaning I still have to see An Education, A Serious Man, Precious and Up. Well, I've seen portions of Up, but never all the way through in its entirety. I don't think I'm going to bother to see Precious, based on its appearances of being a trite melodrama.

 

[tomalak301]

Isn't there a correlation between best Director and Best Picture? If that still holds true, we can already eliminate 5 of the movies nominated. I think next year they have to extend the best director category as well.

Anyway, interesting list. I've still got to see Precious (When will it play here), A Serious Man, The Blind Side, and An Education. I guess that was a good year for me, seeing 6 of the 10 BP nominations. Have an unfortunate feeling Avatar will be running away with everything though.

 

[CaptainCanada]

The director category clearly helps to demarcate who the biggest contenders are (winning BP without a Director nomination has only happened three times, and two of those were in the first five or so years of the Academy Awards). They won't extend the category, though; Picture was only extended to get more popular films nominated, it's got nothing to do with whether they win.

I don't think I'm going to bother to see Precious, based on its appearances of being a trite melodrama.

It isn't remotely trite; it's an extremely gritty film. I'd recommend it.