You obviously think that the "duck blind" approach is not only morally questionable, but also completely ineffective - because the contacting civilization won't be able to interpret correctly the information it gathered.
My opinion is that an advanced civilization, one that had hundreds of previous first contacts, will have the experience to correctly interpret the data - in most situations. You said it yourself: such a civilization should be able to moderate even the so-called "dangerous potentials" - again, in most cases.
Each culture is unique. If you make assumptions based on precedents and analogies from other cultures -- whether your own or someone else's -- then you're just setting yourself up for making overconfident mistakes, assuming you understand what you're seeing and then getting a rude awakening when it turns out to be something different.
Bottom line, the best way to learn something about how a culture thinks is to ask
them. Communication is not a one-sided undertaking. As long as you keep yourself separate from them, you're not really learning to communicate
with them. At most, you're learning how to talk
at them.
As for the "trade" and "tread carefully" approach - this is, obviously, a good ideea. If the contacting civilization discovers that the other civilization is not the "mad dog" variety. If a peaceful relation is possible at that point.
You will never be able to avoid the "mad dog" societies if you bypass the "duck blind" approach.
I think "mad dog" is a very condescending and judgmental label. I reject it as a valid category.
Besides, how do you define "avoid?" With the tentative, step-by-step approach I'm talking about, it's not like you just march in and offer them starships and nuclear weapons on day one. You drop in on a small village, let them know you exist, let them come to you and investigate, maybe leave some innocuous trade items lying outside your ship as a friendly gesture. If they still react violently after several more tentative steps leading to direct contact, and if you can't communicate with them enough to learn the reason for their violence and how to resolve it, you just leave the area and come down in some other part of the planet with a different, unrelated civilization and try again. If, for some reason, the whole planet proves hostile, you just go away and leave them alone. There are plenty of other worlds in the galaxy -- there's no obligation to establish a lasting relationship with every single one.
Of course, humanity doesn't have any experience with first contact situations - the first contact between human cultures (or a romantic relationship) can't really compare with the first contact between two alien civilizations. The aliens from Star Trek are ridiculously human. I beleive that a true alien civilization will be so strange, as to defy comprehension.
If so, that just underlines my point that you can never understand them by remote observation, because you'll only be filtering your observations through your own assumptions and those won't give you the grounding to interpret them meaningfully. If both sides are trying to communicate, if both sides are aware that the other side doesn't know things about them, then they will both make an effort to find common ground and explain themselves to each other, and that's a meaningful foundation.
Of course, it may take years or longer to establish meaningful communication. We actually do have ongoing experience with the effort to communicate with an alien intelligence: the dolphins. And even after decades of intensive scientific study, communication is highly limited. They live in a different environment, have a different perceptual emphasis than we do, they don't think the way we do. Sometimes there may be no way to achieve more than limited communication.
But I think the really alien societies would have little to fight over, because they don't set off each other's triggers and aren't competing for the same things. Humans and dolphins are both predatory species that fight among themselves, but historically we've been extremely kind and protective toward each other (well, they have toward us -- we have that whole fishing-net business to live down).
And I think that if you're talking about technological civilizations, they'd tend to have a lot in common with us in terms of their environment, their way of thinking, their social organization, etc. Not an exact correspondence, of course, but enough common ground for meaningful communication. But also enough common ground to allow for conflict. It's a double-sided coin.
What should we do, then? I think there are only two options.
First choice. We stay at home, in our own solar system. Basically, this is the "Star Trek" approach - only without the plot inconsistencies and with a different motivation: we fear that the alien civilization will become our enemy, not that it will be overwhelmed by our civilization.
Second choice. We travel to the stars. Beginnings are always hard. Nonetheless, they must be made. A civilization can only advance or regress. There is no third option. Stagnation is regress.
That's actually not true. If you look at the whole sweep of human history, periods of rapid progress and change are the exception rather than the rule. Many human societies have managed just fine without major change for hundreds or thousands of years -- even tens of thousands if you go back to prehistory. It's not stagnation, just stability. We just assume it's stagnation because we're a society defined by rapid change and we ethnocentrically assume our way is the only right way.
Civilization works like evolution: it advances by punctuated equilibrium. When it's well-adapted to its conditions and its environment remains stable, it has no need for major change; indeed, major change would be counterproductive. But when its circumstances change so as to create a need, then rapid progress kicks into gear while it develops solutions to that need. But eventually equilibrium is restored again. We just haven't gotten there yet, and it's hard for us to look at things on a multimillennial scale, so it looks to us as though progress is a universal necessity.
And there are other options. A society could explore the galaxy entirely by sending out self-replicating AI probes. Indeed, in the likely event that FTL travel is impossible, this is pretty much the only practical way to go.
Or civilizations could go into space and just leave each other alone. Space is huge -- plenty of room for mutual avoidance. If you want to colonize, don't colonize inhabited worlds; terraform uninhabited worlds to suit your needs, or build artificial megastructures in unpopulated star systems. A society could thrive for billions of years (in theory) on the energy from a red dwarf or brown dwarf, and those are by far the most abundant stars in the galaxy, a couple of orders of magnitude more common than the stars we can see with the naked eye. And there's little likelihood that a civilization would need any kind of rare element only found on an inhabited world; as long as you have stars, you have unlimited free energy, and as long as you have access to comets and asteroids, you have carbon, hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen, and silicon, and the technologies of tomorrow will probably rely more on those than on imaginary metals.
You said that the "duck blind" approach is morally problematic.
The variety we see on TNG: Who watches the watchers, TNG: First contact or TNG: Insurrection surely is.
But what if you only listen to their Tv/Radio(or equivalent) transmissions?
Easier said than done. To decipher a coherent signal, you'd either have to come right to the edge of their system and monitor from there or cover nearly an entire continent with receiving antennas in order to pick up enough of the attenuated signal. I suppose it wouldn't be as bad, since they know the signals are going out, so they're essentially public. It's like with cops -- you don't need a search warrant for something that's in plain sight, because the suspect has no reasonable expectation of privacy.
But you'd still have the problem of getting societal information only at second hand -- and it would be even more distorted if your info came solely through the media. Also, it would limit you to societies advanced enough to achieve radio broadcasts. That's as arbitrary a dividing line as the warp-drive requirement in Trek.
But what if you can be relatively sure that the observed civilization has no such taboo? In this case, you can even use the Star Trek "duck blind" methods. But you should only use them if it's absolutely necessary. And, obviously, you shouldn't lie to them about these actions.
I can't see a circumstance where it would be absolutely necessary. And it's certainly not the best way to learn about a society. Plus, I still think it's just rude.
We have discussed another issue: when you discover a world inhabited by an intelligent species, which culture from this world should you contact first?
In my opinion, the response is: you must contact all the cultures from that world simultaneously.
In any other case chaos will ensue....
Imagine if an alien species contacted only The European Union. All the other states would jump at its throat like a pack of rabid dogs. And U.S.A. would lead the pack.
Only afterwards can you make your trade offers and begin the political games - or, as you said it, only afterwards can you start "offering incentives for peaceful interraction".
That's what I meant all along. I wasn't proposing keeping your existence secret from anyone -- like, say,
Stargate's Asgard contacting the American SGC but keeping the other nations in the dark.
What is this "subtle" and "complex" magic first contact solution? Can you at least describe it summarily? Did you read about it in a book? If so, whitch book? I'm interested to know.
I've been describing aspects of it all along -- and I still resent your facetious dismissal of it as a "magic solution." I never once claimed there was a perfect solution -- just that there's a healthier, more viable solution than the one shown on ST, and that the Starfleet approach is based on a lot of grossly erroneous assumptions. There are never any guarantees -- a first contact always carries risks. Heck, even cultures that have known each other for centuries can always come into conflict. So I'm not spouting any nonsense about magic or perfect solutions, so I'll thank you to stop suggesting such a thing. Every approach carries risks, but there are ways to reduce the risks.
Again, I'll analogize civilizations to individuals, because I think the ground rules aren't that different. Trying to start a relationship with someone new always carries the risk of misunderstandings and mutual hurt. But if you don't start out with an honest, equal approach and open, mutual communication, then the relationship is in bad shape from the beginning.