Our near future in space

[sojourner]

I have been thinking about this a little this morning.

If the progression we are currently seeing continues I believe NASA will get out of the manned launch business in the next 20 years and refocus on unmanned probes. As commercial space companies expand outwards I think NASA will send scientists along with them to take advantage at low cost of already developed and paid for transportation. This will be a boon to the better utilization of NASA's budget as they can focus more on pure science and less on "building the next launcher". All of those unmanned probes they wish they could afford now will become feasible.

This train of thought started with me pondering when the first "general use" manned space vessel would appear. Not ground to orbit, but true "ships". It seems to me that the most likely scenario is commercial companies developing "tourist cruisers". First to the moon, later Mars and outward from there. Operations will be setup in these locations to support tourist, but as on earth, will lead to an expanding and eventually self propagating settlements. Government ships would probably develop more along the lines of the coastguard than the navy. Search and rescue vessels maintained in ports of call. As technology (mainly speed) improves we may see longer range rescue vessels.
we can speculate on when "warships" would develop. The first would most likely be coastguard ships pressed into use by need in some conflict using what ever special equipment they may have (a cutting laser originally designed for slicing at damaged ships to get to the crew stranded onboard?)

So, when do you think we will build the first "class" of space vessel and will it be commercial or government
?

 

[Lindley]

The problem with tourist stuff on Mars is that even if you could get to orbit cheaply, you'd still need to take a year's vacation to go there and come back.

 

[sojourner]

Using today's technology, yes. There are engine technologies being developed that will cut the travel time and allow bigger windows for departing craft from mars.

 

[scotthm]

So, when do you think we will build the first "class" of space vessel and will it be commercial or government?

I don't think Man will ever casually travel between the planets of this solar system.

The problem with tourist stuff on Mars is that even if you could get to orbit cheaply, you'd still need to take a year's vacation to go there and come back.

And the vast majority of that year would be spent cooped up in a small box during transit. How fun that will be.

---------------

 

[Lindley]

And the vast majority of that year would be spent cooped up in a small box during transit. How fun that will be.

Obviously an Apollo-style capsule would be out of the question. You'd need at least something the size of a cruise-liner to make such a journey even remotely practical. Obviously such a thing would be nearly as difficult to build (in orbit) as it would be to get it there; and it'd have to remain in Mars orbit while a smaller lander went down, unless the ship was designed to serve as the basis for a colony.

So, when will we have "starships"? Just as soon as we actually want to go anywhere farther than the moon.

 

[sojourner]

Wow! pessimistic much? I thought I was on TREKbbs, not ludditebbs.

 

[scotthm]

^ I don't know why you call it pessimism, there's plenty of good things that need done right here on Earth. Maybe they'll get looked after if we don't waste time sending men to barren worlds for no good reason.

---------------

 

[All Seeing Eye]

If the progression we are currently seeing continues I believe NASA will get out of the manned launch business in the next 20 years and refocus on unmanned probes.

I agree, the future of manned space missions will lay with the ESA.

 

[sojourner]

^ I don't know why you call it pessimism, there's plenty of good things that need done right here on Earth. Maybe they'll get looked after if we don't waste time sending men to barren worlds for no good reason.

---------------

Yes, let's confine ourselves to one small planet that is quickly running out of resources instead of making uses of the riches of the solar system. Let's not waste money building solar power satellites for pollution free energy. Let's not develop industry in space and keep it here where it can foul up the environment. Let's not create refuges on other planets so the human race can be taken out by a single asteroid. Let's not give the people of earth an outlet for population pressure. Let's just try and solve all our problems by staying right here and try to repair a closed system stressed to the breaking point.

"Anything not growing is dying" - H. Beam Piper

 

[trekkiedane]

[Edit:^I guess I should have refreshed the page before writing this\/]

/.../ there's plenty of good things that need done right here on Earth. Maybe they'll get looked after if we don't waste time sending men to barren worlds for no good reason.

I agree, but as it is right now, all it takes for us to become extinct, is one rock hitting Earth -If we (as a species) want a future we'll need to have self sustaining colonies elsewhere as well.

/.../the future of manned space missions will lay with the ESA.

I don't think ESA is actually interested in developing and building launch vehicles for humans -as long as the US-American taxpayer picks up the tab for developing such devices and/or there is a Soyuz rocket.
The next generation (heh!) of surface to orbit spacecraft is likely to be build by private entrepreneurs (or a new player like China or Japan)

 

[scotthm]

"Anything not growing is dying" - H. Beam Piper

The human population is growing by leaps and bounds, right here on Earth.

By the way, I have no problem with progress, but the original question was, "when do you think we will build the first 'class' of space vessel", and I don't think we will be building the type of spaceships you envision in the forseeable future. That's all.

---------------

 

[sojourner]

The human population is growing by leaps and bounds, right here on Earth.

It is growing in population, sure, but is it expanding? Or just consuming limited resources at a faster rate?

By the way, I have no problem with progress, but the original question was, "when do you think we will build the first 'class' of space vessel", and I don't think we will be building the type of spaceships you envision in the forseeable future. That's all.

---------------

So, how far ahead IS the forseeable future? 20 years? 40? 1000? I can tell ya, if we don't get off the planet in a meaningful way in the forseeable future, we won't be around long.

And just to clarify, I am not talking about "Starships" capable of interstellar travel, just local system ships.

 

[StarryEyed]

It all hinges on cheap and easy access to orbit. Until we have that, there will be meaningful space activity. Some variant of the space elevator concept is probably the only thing which could realistically give us that.

 

[trekkiedane]

It all hinges on cheap and easy access to orbit. Until we have that, there will be meaningful space activity. Some variant of the space elevator concept is probably the only thing which could realistically give us that.

The problem with cheap and easy access to orbit is that it only is cheap and easy when you really have a lot of mass you want up there.

While a Lofstrom loop is a fantastic machine that could bring ton after ton into orbit minute after minute at very low cost per ton, it also would dwarf all other space programs when it comes to the cost of building it, and be a very expensive way to send up stuff unless lots of stuff was going up all of the time.
We'd need an entirely new global industrial infrastructure and a real need to send truckloads of goods and busloads of people into space before it would even be feasible.
So, before there is a big human presence in orbit and/or further out it won't be built -and that could take a very long time to acquire with our present technology and economy.

As I see it it is a matter of centuries rather than decades before there'll be any serious space tourism -or indeed permanent habitats.

 

[scotthm]

So, how far ahead IS the forseeable future? 20 years? 40? 1000? I can tell ya, if we don't get off the planet in a meaningful way in the forseeable future, we won't be around long.

First of all, I think we'll need to have a mature. non-chemically fueled propulsion system in order to make travel between the planets a routine thing. This propulsion system should be able to operate from the surface of one planet to the surface of another, and make the trip between planets in days or weeks rather than months or years. I can't say that I see that happening any time soon, but the future's hard to predict.

Second, we'll have to figure out why large numbers of people would want to travel beyond Earth's orbit. Why would you want to travel to Mars, or to one of Jupiter's moons? I don't think tourism, or mining the solar system for resources, is enough of an incentive.

---------------

 

[sojourner]

I agree that a non-chemical engine is needed for intersolar system and several different technologies have been or are in development. But, using the same engine and ship from planet surface to space to another planet surface is HIGHLY inefficient.

Incentive? Profit margin. If someone can find a way to make money, they will go. To get away from other people. To be first to some destination. To sightsee. Why do we go places here on earth?

As I see it it is a matter of centuries rather than decades before there'll be any serious space tourism -or indeed permanent habitats.[unquote]

psssst! Don't tell Virgin Galactic or Bigelow Aerospace!

Oh, a Lofstrom loop is NOT a space elevator.

 

[scotthm]

Incentive? Profit margin. If someone can find a way to make money, they will go. To get away from other people. To be first to some destination. To sightsee. Why do we go places here on earth?

There are many places on Earth that people generally don't go, mostly because they're pretty inhospitable. Other worlds in this solar system are even more inhospitable.

As for the profit in space exploration and travel, where do you see that coming from other than from a limited tourist trade?

---------------

 

[Brolan]

The funding for manned space travel just isn't there. With the Apollo program they were cutting funding even as they were still going to the Moon. Did you know there was supposed to be an Apollo 21?

While many of us thought cities in space and a Moonbase were the next things going to be put into space. But we got into a cycle where the Space Shuttle was being built and the budgets were being cut back so much the Shuttle was eating up most of the money.

36 years after the Apollo program and all you have to show for it is an obsolete expensive space truck and a minor space station.

Until there is a major economic reason to go into space it will remain like this. We need to discover a reason that will pay off with big money on the Earth. Maybe one of us will be the one to find it?

 

[sojourner]

If I could predict all the ways people will find to make money in the future, I wouldn't be posting here. I'd be getting rich on the stock market. Do you think the first settlers in america came here knowing they would be selling tobacco to england? or cotton? There are 2 ways to make money. Produce something better/cheaper/faster than what is on the market or produce something unique. It's a good thing you weren't around when Columbus was trying to get his expedition going.

From a historical point, do you think New York City has always been as big as it is? How did it get that way? Why did people go there when it was just swampy land?

Humanity branches out. We will go into space because we can.
Heck, you live in a country that exists because people decided to go into the wilderness and carve out a living. It's what we do.

 

[Bill Morris]

By the way, we don't know yet if a full-sized Polywell fusion device will work. Funding to build one is currently under consideration as data from WB-7 are being evaluated by the U.S. Navy. But theoretically, if it works, a Polywell fusion generator five feet in diameter could be configured to create a powerful fusion propulsion system for spacecraft, even though that isn't its main intended purpose.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polywell