One Month Out: Predictions?

[Danger Ace]

I voted "blockbuster" because that was, for me, the closest to how I feel. I definately believe "Star Trek Into darkness" will have a great opening weekend.

I couldn't go with the "A dissapointment, but will make money" option because that is too vague.

I fear it could be too similiar to what was given us in 2009. If it is ... I would be disappointed, but that doesn't mean that I would ultimately feel unsatisfied or unhappy.

JJ Abram's previous Trek film, for example, disappointed me in how lite and glossy it was though, overall, I loved it and have watched it many, many times.

 

[throwback]

I think that this film will beat Iron Man 3 in its opening weekend. I think that this film will hold its position in the top five for several weeks until the premiere of Man of Steel, less than a month later. I don't see this film joining the ranks of the billion dollar club. I think this film will have a "green" rating at Metacritic, and a fresh rating at Rotten Tomatoes. I think this rating will not reflect the criticism that will come up later, from fans and, possibly, non-fans. I do not think this film will encourage Paramount into investing money and resources into a TV series.

 

[LOKAI of CHERON]

However, I've read a few worrying words today...

This.

Based on the trailers, I figured this was easily a $600-700 million dollar film. But some of the things I've read today just seem silly, but perhaps it plays better than it sounds.

I hope...

Yep - fingers crossed here too, Bill. I'm not overly concerned at this point, "da intawebs" can be extremely unreliable in these situations!

 

[HaventGotALife]

For the financially challenged among us, those that can't drop 40 dollars a week at the movie theater (or even in a single month), I have had to choose between going to see movies and not. This means I saw Lincoln, but not Argo this past fall.

If there are households like mine, this movie has A LOT of competition. Man of Steel comes to mind. And I don't know if it has the buzz to do as well as the last one.

 

[ralph]

Blockbuster, guaranteed too. Massive marketing out off USA. My guess: $600-700 million. It will not beat Iron Man 3 and Man of Steel, but will beat Wolverine, Oblivion and GI Joe 2.

 

[Xaios]

If there are households like mine, this movie has A LOT of competition. Man of Steel comes to mind. And I don't know if it has the buzz to do as well as the last one.

Perhaps, but unless it's a critical flop (which won't be the case, by the sound of things), the momentum and good will from ST09 will be more than enough to sustain it.

In honesty though, it won't match Iron Man 3 or Man of Steel unless those flop from a critical perspective. Those franchises simply have broader appeal, not to mention bigger star power. Iron Man 3 has Robert Downey Jr, and Man of Steel has Christopher freaking Nolan, two of the biggest draws in Hollywood.

 

[BillJ]

My biggest fear (as a Trekkie) is that this film will turn out like the last one. Where the marketing campaign ended up being superior to the actual film.

 

[RAMA]

$505 million was my prediction.

 

[Squiggy]

If there are households like mine, this movie has A LOT of competition. Man of Steel comes to mind. And I don't know if it has the buzz to do as well as the last one.

True enough, but unless the professional critics turn out truly negative opinions, the positive momentum generated by ST09 will more than sustain it.

Let's face it, even if STID garners the same critical praise as ST09, it's not going to beat Iron Man 3 or Man of Steel unless those flop critically. The appeal of those franchises is just that much broader than Star Trek.

I agree with the consensus that Trek will be around third for the big summer movies. Ironman (or any Marvel comic film) is a crazy moneymaker and Man of Steele looks awesome, by an awesome director and producer, AND its a series that's in serious need of a successful film.

Remember how everyone was worried that Wolverine, Terminator and GI Joe was going to affect Trek 4 year ago?

 

[Xaios]

I agree with the consensus that Trek will be around third for the big summer movies. Ironman (or any Marvel comic film) is a crazy moneymaker and Man of Steele looks awesome, by an awesome director and producer, AND its a series that's in serious need of a successful film.

Remember how everyone was worried that Wolverine, Terminator and GI Joe was going to affect Trek 4 year ago?

Haha, true. Granted, those movies were pretty much all a critical disaster. Judging by the reviews of Iron Man 3, that won't be case this time around.

Also, not sure why I made two separate posts above. If a mod wants to delete one, I'd have no objection.

 

[SalvorHardin]

http://variety.com/2013/film/news/s...g-for-85-million-debut-in-the-u-s-1200415972/

“Star Trek Into Darkness” is about to go where no “Star Trek” has gone before at the domestic box office.

According to early tracking, Paramount and Skydance Productions’ sequel to 2009′s “Star Trek,” opening three weeks from Friday on May 17, is gearing up for a stellar $85 million opening, which would mark a record debut for the sci-fi franchise.

Analysts suggest the 3D actioner could exceed $90 million, depending on word of mouth. Pre-release buzz has been building steadily for the film starting as early as December when Paramount released the film’s first teaser trailer.

 

[Borgminister]

Engage!

 

[shapeshifter]

http://www.trekbbs.com/showthread.php?p=8003440#post8003440

 

[RAMA]

Bo mojo predicts- http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3674&p=.htm

(Domestic: $250 million, Foreign: $400 million)

They say it will disappoint, but make over $600 million. like that makes sense.

 

[BillJ]

Bo mojo predicts- http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3674&p=.htm

(Domestic: $250 million, Foreign: $400 million)

They say it will disappoint, but make over $600 million. like that makes sense.

I think projecting it does 2.5 times the business of Star Trek 2009 in Foreign markets is incredibly optimistic. Are we sure 'foreign' isn't suppose to be total box office?

 

[RAMA]

Bo mojo predicts- http://www.boxofficemojo.com/news/?id=3674&p=.htm

(Domestic: $250 million, Foreign: $400 million)

They say it will disappoint, but make over $600 million. like that makes sense.

I think projecting it does 2.5 times the business of Star Trek 2009 in Foreign markets is incredibly optimistic. Are we sure 'foreign' isn't suppose to be total box office?

It think they are getting it wrong, it will do better HERE in the USA, like Batman did. Again I predicted $325 million domestically and a modest gain internationally to $180 million.