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"No US manned launch capability"

Thaaaaat's right, forgot about that.

I was going under the official NASA completion date.
 
They could just go with the Big Gemini proposal from 1969.

They'd need to do some heat shield upgrades to Big Gemini for anything past LEO.

I think this iwould be just as big a wheel to reinvent as Constellation was to Apollo.. but at least there was work started on it.

If we're going retro, X-20 FTW! :)
 
I'm of the opinion that the LEO ship shouldn't be burdened with a lunar requirement, which may be what doomed the Constellation/Orion design. It's a safe bet that 95% of missions will just be LEO, so why not use a cheap lightweight craft 95% of the time?

The Augustine Commission said the recurring per-launch cost of Ares/Orion was about $1 Billion. Ouch!

Despite having a logo designed by Michael Okuda, Ares/Orion looks like a f***ing bottle rocket.
 
^^ I'd agree with that about a lightweight craft to get crew to LEO. Makes sense. Something like the Soyuz really. That's what the private companies will be coming up with now.

Ack! $1 billion per launch?! Did it really say that? That's getting into Shuttle territory (which was bad) except without the cargo capacity!

Mr Awe
 
I haven't read the report itself, but that's what Wiki said about it under the heading Schedule and Cost.

The Augustine Commission also stated that Ares I and Orion would have an estimated recurring cost of almost $1 billion per flight.

But the Mars Society says the Augustine Commissions cost numbers are junk.

Excerpt:

The cost projections for all other systems are similarly bloated, or worse. A particularly nonsensical example can be seen in the Aerospace Corp's cost estimates for future ground operations. As the charts correctly note, these today amount to about $300 million per year to support the flights of the highly complex Space Shuttle. Following retirement of the Shuttle, Aerospace's cost estimates have ground operations cost triple to $900 million by 2012, and then continue to rise to $1.8 billion by 2022. This sixfold rise in ground operations cost would be difficult to explain in any case, but in the absurdity of this instance is outstanding since during the entire ten year 2012-2022 period in question, there are NO heavy lift flights at all for the ground operations to support. In other words, the Aerospace Corp's estimates have NASA's ground operations costs rising sixfold over Shuttle flight support requirements, spending $15 billion over ten years, in order to launch nothing.

Hrm...
 
It was hard for me to imagine that the Ares I/Orion combo would actually cost that much to launch. It probably is artificially bloated. The Shuttle costs that much but it's far more complex.

Mr Awe
 
OK can someone explain to me why it is not possible, over the next few months to a year, to design and throw together a cheap and cheerful meat-cannister to go on top of existing rockets like Atlas V or Delta IV?
Because sane people don't want to fly that way.
Come on, lets let American Airlines run our space program.

[yt]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNeSFx9AMqo[/yt]

Bud Light made AirTran executives sad. :(
 
I always thought a better idea than the ISS was having a single stage to orbit space plane with crew and cargo capacity similar to the shuttles and instead of having a spaces station they could go back to the space lab concept with each lab made by a different country instead of having them make modules for the ISS. Does that idea have any merit other than it costs a lot? To make the Mars people happy I think Robert Zubrin's Mars direct plan seems solid enough since it doesn't rely on exotic sci-fi technologies or a lot of infrastructure in space.
 
Leroy, that would have been nice. Delta Clipper would have been perfect, but NASA squashed if because it wasn't invented by their people.
 
I always thought a better idea than the ISS was having a single stage to orbit space plane with crew and cargo capacity similar to the shuttles

Can't be done with current technology.

Delta Clipper would have been perfect, but NASA squashed if because it wasn't invented by their people.

Delta clipper as built was never intended to reach orbit. The technology isn't there yet.
 
Russia just said they'll charge more after the current price agreement expires.

"We have an agreement until 2012 that Russia will be responsible for this. But after that? Excuse me but the prices should be absolutely different then!"

link

Currently we're paying them $51 million a flight, which is a price any U.S. private venture will find hard to match.
 
I think Okuda is right on this one.
http://web.me.com/michaelokuda/CONSTELLATION/WHAT_IS_CONSTELLATION.html

That moon-rover is freakin' awesome. So much work has already gone into the Constellation project, that its just not logical, dammit, to shelve it. They already have a launch platform for this thing, it's well along...I just don't get it.
Especially considering the new budget is a bit higher ~ why the weird stipulation?
 
From what the Mars Society said about the inflated cost numbers given to the commission, somebody high-up wanted to kill it and created a reason to.

The stated reason may be bogus, but it still might be a good decision. That depends on whether the private sector produces better, cheaper capabilities or whether they end up hamstrung with red tape or buried in cost overruns.

We still might get back to the moon via the private sector, but instead of the iconic pictures of Apollo astronauts on the surface, with just their name and an American flag adorning their uniform, their moon suit will look like a Nascar driver's. Perhaps if you become an early sponsor you can get a good high-frontal suit position for your own company logo. :)
 
Especially considering the new budget is a bit higher ~ why the weird stipulation?

According to the estimates, the new budget is still not high enough to make Constellation viable.

The up-thread article's contention that Orion was fine is interesting. I certainly haven't heard anything bad about it. But everyone's been ragging on Ares for a while now, so I'm really not surprised to see that being shelved.
 
The only thing I've seen about Ares that gave me pause was the Air Force's belief that from 30 seconds to 90 seconds after launch, an abort would fail because the debris from the explosion of the solid rocket booster would rain burning fragments onto the capsule's parachute. Given the Air Force's long experience testing solid rocket ICBM's, perhaps they've actually seen this kind of thing happen.
 
I think Okuda is right on this one.
http://web.me.com/michaelokuda/CONSTELLATION/WHAT_IS_CONSTELLATION.html

That moon-rover is freakin' awesome. So much work has already gone into the Constellation project, that its just not logical, dammit, to shelve it. They already have a launch platform for this thing, it's well along...I just don't get it.
Especially considering the new budget is a bit higher ~ why the weird stipulation?

Don't drink the cool-aid. The Altair lander is just a pretty picture, not even close to final design stage never mind construction. Constellation was over budget, over due, and bad design. That article has a couple of facts wrong as well. No engine has been designed and tested, only planned. The Ares I-x only looked like the Ares I it didn't actually share any flight components. (4segment booster/no second stage)

http://www.nasaspaceflight.com/2010/...op-test-fails/
 
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