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NCAA Football 2008 Discussion - It All Starts Here.

From the comments I see on ESPN, lots of people seem to think Penn State = Ohio State and should not by any means be allowed in the NC game because they play in a weak conference. I heard it discussed on Sportscenter too, with talking heads hemming and hawing over whether or not an undefeated PSU would go ahead of a 1-loss SEC or Big 12 team. The thing is, undefeated Penn State teams have been screwed before, most recently in 1994 and notably in 1968-1969.

Of course, if Penn State doesn't win out it's all moot.
 
All of those arguments are understandable and do carry some weight. The Big Ten is at best a middle of the road conference strength-wise this year. Consequently, running the table there isn't as great an achievement as it once was. Considering that PSU didn't have the strongest non-conference schedule, and the case for them gets even weaker. But bear in mind that the voters so far have them ranked at #3 in pretty much all of the polls, so if PSU does end up going to the championship, there's nobody to "blame" but the voters. I can accept sending 1-loss Big 12 team over PSU, more than I could a 1-loss SEC team, but that's primarily because the Big 12 seems to be the stronger conference this year.

I don't think you have anything to worry about as far as PSU losing in the regular season goes. There isn't anyone in the Big Ten who seems a truly viable threat to PSU this year. The Purdue game was their weakest showing so far, and even that was pretty solid. The Big 12 is competitive enough that there isn't anyone who can be assured of an undefeated season. In the SEC, the only team that I think has a real shot of a perfect record is Alabama.
 
In the SEC, the only team that I think has a real shot of a perfect record is Alabama.
Well yeah, all the other SEC teams already have losses. :lol:
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I knew I should have looked that up, first!
 
Neroon, are you saying that you'd go with an undefeated Penn State over a one-loss Florida that thrashed LSU, beat all the teams I mentioned above, and then whipped previously-unbeaten Alabama in the SEC title game?

I'm not necessarily disagreeing, just interested in your take.

Mimic, that's precisely why I mentioned it: Penn State getting boned in the polls has precedent.

What about an unbeaten BYU, Utah, Boise State or even Ball State? What kind of regard do you give them? I think everyone near the top would have to lose twice for the Cardinals to have even a shot. Frankly, I might take the undefeated BYU-Utah winner over even an undefeated Penn State.
 
Neroon, are you saying that you'd go with an undefeated Penn State over a one-loss Florida that thrashed LSU, beat all the teams I mentioned above, and then whipped previously-unbeaten Alabama in the SEC title game?
No, I'm just saying that it'd be easier to accept a Big 12 team with one loss going instead of PSU, because I'm convinced at the moment that the competition in that conference is tougher. Texas has a Bataan death march of a schedule, so I'm betting they will lose one of those games. That to me would still be more impressive than Florida's run, and therefore not as difficult to accept were a one-loss Texas taken over an undefeated PSU.

What about an unbeaten BYU, Utah, Boise State or even Ball State? What kind of regard do you give them? I think everyone near the top would have to lose twice for the Cardinals to have even a shot. Frankly, I might take the undefeated BYU-Utah winner over even an undefeated Penn State.

Now that is what I find most compelling right now, BYU and Utah have proven themselves capable of playing with the big boys, but is it enough to warrant an invitation to the championship, if there aren't two undefeated of those same "big boys"? I;m less sure of Boise St and Ball St right now... and this comes from a fan and alum of the MAC. :D



Frankly, I might take the undefeated BYU-Utah winner over even an undefeated Penn State.
Why? Wins over Oregon State and Michigan? Thumping UCLA?
A win over Oregon State is looking better these days, especially with that 66-13 win last week even if it was over hapless Wash. St. Bu Michigan is looking worse than most people thought they would and UCLA ... may still be a charlatan given that they haven't been able to build anything on that win over Tennessee to start the year.
 
Frankly, I might take the undefeated BYU-Utah winner over even an undefeated Penn State.
Why? Wins over Oregon State and Michigan? Thumping UCLA?

And undefeated BYU will have wins over Utah, TCU and Air Force—all high-quality conference victories. They can't help that they scheduled Washington and UCLA, or that Utah had Michigan, when all are struggling. The clear intent was to prove themselves on the national stage.

Contrast this with Penn State's pathetic out-of-conference schedule. We'll give 'em a pass on Syracuse, because the Orange are historically tough yet struggling of late, and afford them due credit for Oregon State (though bringing 'em out to Happy Valley ain't exactly daring), a real giant killer (as we must Utah), but ... Coastal Carolina? Temple? Please. Those are absolutely indefensible, but for the Temple-Penn State local foe connection.

The win over Wisconsin doesn't particularly impress me, since the Badgers are notorious for losing the big game. Purdue is competent at best. The Lions do, however, have a chance to make their case. Whup Ohio State—not edge, whup—and I'll be convinced. Get through their schedule undefeated, even if they don't pound anyone else, and I'll certainly grant them even more respect than I have.

A PSU with a spotless record need not worry about, or even notice, similarly unblemished Ball State or Boise State, granted. But this idea that the BCS unquestionably take 12-0 Penn State over an unbeaten BYU or Utah is ridiculous. Do the Lions probably win that argument? Sure. Is it an argument worth having? Definitely.
 
Air Force, ironically, cannot pass the ball for their lives. They lost their best player last year (Chad Hall), lost to Navy for the sixth straight year and are very much a 1-dimensional team. TCU and Utah would be decent wins, but no better than wins over OSU and MSU.

As far as your mocking Penn State's OOC schedule, you should be aware that the Big Ten was required to add a 12th game to their schedule and not a lot of teams were available. Hence Coastal Carolina this year, and FIU last year. As you know, Temple was scheduled for a 6-year series to try and start an in-state rivalry (Paterno refuses to play Pittsburgh because they blocked our application to join the Big East) and to help out Al Golden. It hasn't really worked. But it is interesting that you give BYU and Utah credit for their OCC schedule because it's not their fault that those teams are bad this year, but only relectantly give us that same bye over Syracuse, and take a dig at PSU for not traveling. Dude, we're going to Alabama in 2 years.

You dismiss a 41 point win over Wisconsin because of a highly qualitative historical reason. Why not look at other history - namely, Wisconsin's notoriously hostile environment at Camp Randall and their win streak at home that Ohio State barely snapped before we got there?

I get it. You don't like that the little guy gets overlooked in favor of the name teams. Still, your argument has many flaws.
 
Air Force, ironically, cannot pass the ball for their lives. They lost their best player last year (Chad Hall), lost to Navy for the sixth straight year and are very much a 1-dimensional team. TCU and Utah would be decent wins, but no better than wins over OSU and MSU.

Air Force is a quality win, despite your failed attempt to denigrate them. Army, Navy and Air Force have all won games in the recent past without having completed a pass during said contest. The triple option causes nightmares for opposing defenses, and is hardly, despite your dismissal, incapable of moving the ball even in the face of opponents putting nine, ten and even eleven men in the box. It's the ultimate equalizer in the face of the service academies being unable to match bulk with 300+ pound monstrosities. Why do you think so many major colleges say "no thanks" when Air Force or Navy look to start a series with them?

As far as your mocking Penn State's OOC schedule, you should be aware that the Big Ten was required to add a 12th game to their schedule and not a lot of teams were available. Hence Coastal Carolina this year, and FIU last year.

Gee ... Rutgers and Fresno State managed to find each other only months before the game. It's more likely PSU couldn't find anyone tough to play because they didn't want to. See below.

As you know, Temple was scheduled for a 6-year series to try and start an in-state rivalry ... and to help out Al Golden. It hasn't really worked.

Actually, I didn't know, nor do I much care.

Wonderful to be both generous and grab yourself a guaranteed win all at once, ain't it? It's really impressive to want an interstate rivalry with a school that essentially has no chance to beat you.

(Paterno refuses to play Pittsburgh because they blocked our application to join the Big East)

Didn't know that either. That blows. Never knew the Panthers were such cowards. I would have loved to see Rutgers play Penn State on a yearly basis, despite the fact the Lions would have won most of them. [RU would actually have whipped 'em for the first time in a 'coon's age (or ever; I don't recall) in 2006, had a distant shot in 2005 and a decent one in 2007. Other than that, well ... :)]

But it is interesting that you give BYU and Utah credit for their OCC schedule because it's not their fault that those teams are bad this year, but only reluctantly give us that same bye over Syracuse, and take a dig at PSU for not traveling. Dude, we're going to Alabama in 2 years.

I did it reluctantly, but I did it. That's what matters.

Did you give Hawai'i's 2007 team credit for the games at Michigan and at Michigan State, which both teams backed out of at the midnight hour, or that they were going to Florida in 2008?

I didn't think so.

The Lions will get more credit for visiting Alabama when they actually visit Alabama, and the same with their games with Nebraska some years from now. Until then ... sorry. Nice try, though.

Most of the evidence I see indicates Penn State for the most part packs its non-conference schedule with palookas. That would be acceptable were the Big Ten as formidable as once it was. We both know it ain't.

Oh, and rather than citing a two-years distant game with 'Bama to bolster your argument, why don't we instead take a look at next year's OOC schedule?

Yes, let us do just that.

Hmm ... it includes BCS powerhouses Akron, Syracuse (again, a bit of a pass, but not much of one, as Syracuse continues its stay in Irrelevancy, USA), Temple and Eastern Illinois.

Oooh, scary. Way to man up out there at State College. :guffaw:

You dismiss a 41-point win over Wisconsin because of a highly qualitative historical reason. Why not look at other history - namely, Wisconsin's notoriously hostile environment at Camp Randall and their win streak at home that Ohio State barely snapped before we got there?

But it was already snapped, and that's the trump.

This year (and we are, for the most part, talking about this year) they've beaten juggernauts Marshall and Akron at home; both games were pretty competitive into the second half, and only then became blowouts. Spare me that "they're awesome at home, and we should be given huge credit for our win there" assertion. It's clearly specious.

But for the sake of argument, why don't we examine that awe-inspiring (and now defunct) 18-game home-winning streak a little more closely and see how many times the name "Ohio State" comes up in that little run?

That would be zero, by the way. I did, however, see Akron, Marshall, Northern Illinois, Washington State, the Citadel, Bowling Green, Western Illinois, San Diego State and Buffalo. Don't get me wrong ... there were some nice wins in there, too, over pre-disaster Michigan, pre-Petrino Arkansas and Penn State. The rest, though, were Big Ten chumps and the Murderer's Row I listed above.

So much for being awesome at home.

Wisconsin hasn't beaten anyone this year, other than a fairly solid Fresno State. They even lost to the Michigan team Utah popped in the same building. Don't be surprised if the Badgers go 6-6 this season.

I get it. You don't like that the little guy gets overlooked in favor of the name teams. Still, your argument has many flaws.

You've stressed that with which you disagree. That's different than my argument having "flaws," as I've shown.

In addition, stop reading into what you think I might mean, rather than what I say. I already acknowledged that if it came down to it, Penn State probably wins the argument over Utah or BYU. My only point has been that it's not an open-and-shut case. If you can't acknowledge that, and think 12-0 PSU deserves to go over unbeaten BYU/Utah automatically, you're a hopeless homer.

Penn State's resume, right now, is based enormously on an extremely impressive win over an Oregon State team that beat USC and gave Utah an excellent game. Take that one away and they're barely in the Top Ten on merit.

All that said ... I hope they kick the shit out of Ohio State, and definitely think they can.
 
Air Force is a quality win, despite your failed attempt to denigrate them.
I never denigrated Air Force. I said they are not nearly as strong as they were last year and cannot pass. They are one-dimensional. They're a good win, but not what I'd consider a quality win. They're a team you're supposed to beat, like a Purdue or Iowa, if a team is a NC contender.

Gee ... Rutgers and Fresno State managed to find each other only months before the game. It's more likely PSU couldn't find anyone tough to play because they didn't want to.
You know, we were scheduled to play Arkansas State this year and actually switched to Oregon State when the opportunity arose. Yes, the Lions actually found someone harder and scheduled them.

Did you give Hawai'i's 2007 team credit for the games at Michigan and at Michigan State, which both teams backed out of at the midnight hour, or that they were going to Florida in 2008?

I didn't think so.
I don't believe I ever expressed an opinion about Hawaii. If those old threads still exist, feel free to check.

The Lions will get more credit for visiting Alabama when they actually visit Alabama, and the same with their games with Nebraska some years from now. Until then ... sorry. Nice try, though.
My point is we're traveling to Alabama. We're traveling to Virginia. We went to Syracuse. Your assertion that Penn State refuses to travel to OOC games is wrong.

Oh, and rather than citing a two-years distant game with 'Bama to bolster your argument, why don't we instead take a look at next year's OOC schedule?

Yes, let us do just that.

Hmm ... it includes BCS powerhouses Akron, Syracuse, Temple and Eastern Illinois.
I cited traveling to Alabama in response to your "Penn State won't travel to Oregon State or South Florida or Piscataway" assertions. Yes, this schedule sucks. But no, Penn State has no great fear of traveling or playing good teams, as a glance further down the schedule tells you. To reiterate, I'm not saying this year, or last year, or next year's OOC schedule is particularly impressive. What I am saying is that you're wrong about Penn State purposfully avoiding playing teams on the road and playing cupcakes all the time.

You said that beating Wisky is unimpressive because Wisconsin has a history of losing big games. I said if we're arguing history, they also have a history of winning at home. If my argument isn't valid because we're talking about this year, your argument is invalid for the same reason. You can say Wisconsin (like Air Force) isn't a great team - I'd probably even agree with you (I think they're very one-dimensional) - but don't say that a penchant for losing big games is why the win shouldn't mean anything. I think that handing Wisconsin its worst home loss in 19 years should count for something, though.

In addition, stop reading into what you think I might mean, rather than what I say.
For the past several years I've read you complaining about how Hawaii is overlooked, Rutgers is overlooked, South Florida is overlooked all because they are not traditional powerhouses and get screwed in favor of inferior teams with more of an established reputation. You've been very adamant on this point over the years. I don't necessarily disagree, even. I do think this particular argument is a real stretch, and that your criticism of Penn State's alleged fear to schedule and travel to tough OOC opponents is completely off base.
 
All that said ... I hope they kick the shit out of Ohio State, and definitely think they can.
For someone entertaining the likely possibility of another being a "hopeless homer", you're giving a pretty good impression of bias yourself, there. ;)


Folks... there's an awful lot of needless animosity being expressed here. For the most part, it's just sports we're talkin' in here and college sports at that. We seriously need a tailgate somewhere.......
 
Bad Roon Rising said:
For someone entertaining the likely possibility of another being a "hopeless homer", you're giving a pretty good impression of bias yourself, there. ;)

For Carroll College, yes. They are the best team in college relative to their division, after all. :techman:

For Rutgers, perhaps a bit. We transplanted Jerseyans have been starved for a winner so long that even 7-5, 11-2, 8-5 and ... arrgh ... 1-5 is like a smorgasboard. When you've won for three years, "We'll get 'em next time" is a tad more convincing.

For Penn State? Please. I just don't much like Ohio State, and don't want to see them pummeled mercilessly again in a game they cannot win and most emphatically don't deserve to play in.

And, frankly, I probably would take unbeaten Boise State over a one-loss Ohio State, because the Broncos have proven they can win the big one with all eyes on them—just ask Oklahoma—and the Buckeyes have proven they can't.
 
They're a good win, but not what I'd consider a quality win.

And I consider a good win a quality win. Your mileage may vary.

As to their strength this year relative to last ... AFA was 4-2 at this time last year, with fairly definitive losses to BYU and Navy. This year they're 4-2, with close losses to Utah and Navy—the latter a game they should've won. Gosh, that's just a glaring dropoff. :rolleyes:

You may well prove to be right. It ain't proven yet.

You know, we were scheduled to play Arkansas State this year and actually switched to Oregon State when the opportunity arose. Yes, the Lions actually found someone harder and scheduled them.

To their credit. Of course, they also probably realized that their OOC was so blatantly inadequate that it'd hurt them if indeed they fielded a formidable team, which in my opinion they have. Oregon State was necessary; thank goodness PSU was able to lure them into the Lions' Den.

Oh, and ... the fact that you use "we" when discussing Penn State means you're probably objectivity challenged, I'd wager.

I don't believe I ever expressed an opinion about Hawaii. If those old threads still exist, feel free to check.

You're quite correct on that. My apologies if you thought I was accusing you specifically, or trying to imply it to the gallery. Such was not my intent.

I wasn't being literal. I was pointing out that Penn State's scheduled trips to Alabama mean about as much as Hawai'i's to Michigan and Michigan State, at least until they come to fruition. [UM backed out of signing the contract at the last minute because they didn't want to play in Honolulu this year, while MSU exercised their buyout in what I consider dishonorable fashion.]

My point is we're traveling to Alabama. We're traveling to Virginia. We went to Syracuse. Your assertion that Penn State refuses to travel to OOC games is wrong.

If you can point out where I baldly asserted that and implied their cowardice, please do so. If I instead present evidence, well ... we'll see how you feel about that.

Oh, and when Syracuse presents a genuine threat again, well ... that'll cut some mustard.

To reiterate, I'm not saying this year, or last year, or next year's OOC schedule is particularly impressive.

Well, we're agreed on that at least.

What I am saying is that you're wrong about Penn State purposefully avoiding playing teams on the road and playing cupcakes all the time.

I didn't precisely say that. I think the Big Ten's regression caught teams like Penn State flat-footed. It's entirely possible the Lions will beef up their out-of-conference schedule in response to the need for national credibility.

Insofar as this year, last and next is concerned, though, other than Oregon State in the comfortable confines of Happy Valley, they are playing cupcakes. There's no way around it ... and I consider three consecutive years something of a pattern. Perhaps you don't. Very well, then.

Let's look back and forward a bit further.

In 2005 Penn State played Central Michigan, USF and Cincinnati, the latter two of which had by no means yet ascended to national prominence—all in Happy Valley. So, arguably, that's four years of cupcakes and wannabes. If we add in Akron, Boston College and UCF from 2004, the pattern is five years long, broken only by at Boston College in 2004 and vs. Oregon State this year. They had a home-and-home with Notre Dame in 2006-7, though, which makes the situation marginally more respectful.

All in all, that's precisely two decent or better quality opponents OOC on the road, and four overall, from 2004-2009—six seasons.

Yikes. It's not lookin' too good for your side, eh?

I think that handing Wisconsin its worst home loss in 19 years should count for something, though.

It does count for something ... but not as much as you'd like it to, in the face of their current mediocrity (3-3) and their less than impressive home record (2-2) this year. Coupled with what I demonstrated about Wisconsin's home winning streak being largely created with smoke and mirrors outside of a very few quality wins, well ... draw your own conclusions.

I do think this particular argument is a real stretch, and that your criticism of Penn State's alleged fear to schedule and travel to tough OOC opponents is completely off base.

I can't look into the mind of Joe Paterno and Penn State's athletic director. I can only look at the schedule, which damns them pretty convincingly over the last half-decade for anyone not a student, alum or longtime fan.

Alabama will certainly go a ways towards shedding this trend ...

... in two years, that is.

Penn State out-of-conference, 2004-2009:

2004:

Akron
at Boston College
Central Florida

2005:

South Florida
Cincinnati
Central Michigan

2006:

Akron
at Notre Dame
Youngstown State
Temple

2007:

Florida International
Buffalo
Notre Dame
at Temple

2008:

Coastal Carolina
Oregon State
at Syracuse
Temple

2009:

Akron
Syracuse
Temple
Eastern Illinois


Succinctly, that's:
  • Four OOC away games in six years, out of 22 played
  • Two quality OOC away games in six years, both of which they lost
  • Four quality OOC games overall
You'll pardon me if I don't categorize Penn State's schedule as indicative of the team deserving the label "road warriors." In point of fact, it's pretty damned pathetic.

Perhaps it'll change. We'll see, won't we?
 
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For Penn State? Please. I just don't much like Ohio State, and don't want to see them pummeled mercilessly again in a game they cannot win and most emphatically don't deserve to play in.

And, frankly, I probably would take unbeaten Boise State over a one-loss Ohio State, because the Broncos have proven they can win the big one with all eyes on them—just ask Oklahoma—and the Buckeyes have proven they can't.

That sure seems to be a textbook example of bias against Ohio St - which was the point I was making. However, I will grant that I was not as specific as I could have been, hence the confusion. That said, If you're going to accuse someone else of being biased, it doesn't look too good to be guilty of bias yourself, even if it is bias against as opposed to bias for.
 
Oh, and ... the fact that you use "we" when discussing Penn State means you're probably objectivity challenged, I'd wager.
If the use of 'we' invalidates my arguments, don't argue with me. It's no secret that I attend Penn State.
If you can point out where I baldly asserted that and implied their cowardice, please do so.
Last year you said Penn State would lose to South Florida. I pointed out that they played them in 2005 and won. You countered that by saying if the game had been played in Tampa it would have been a loss, and Penn State probably would never play there for that reason. Granted, that's an old thread, but there you have it.
All in all, that's precisely two decent or better quality opponents OOC on the road, and four overall, from 2004-2009—six seasons.
With the exception of the 2006-2007 stretch (where we played ND) PSU plays at least one BCS conference team a year (@BC, USF, Oregon State, @Syracuse) out of three to four possible games. That's about average for BCS conference OOC schedules, I'd reckon, if not better than average. ETA: Where did you get Akron? gopsusports.com has a 'TBA' in the schedule, not Akron.

Succinctly, that's:
Two quality OOC away games in six years, both of which they lost
Penn State was godawful in 2004 (4-7) and had a headcase for a QB in 2006-2007.

Fine, dismiss the win over Wisconsin. Lots of talking heads thought they'd prove challenging and even Neroon (an excellent prognosticator) thought they'd give Penn State a run for their money. Penn State destroys them and all of a sudden they were nobody.
 
That sure seems to be a textbook example of bias against Ohio St.

Then you need to buy an updated textbook. It's an example of dislike for Ohio State on a personal level—something I've never attempted to disguise—coupled with a frank but fairly objective appraisal of their performance during BCS title games in which they're not handed victory by the refs. :p

mimic said:
If the use of 'we' invalidates my arguments, don't argue with me.

You have the option of not arguing with me, too, mimic.

It's no secret that I attend Penn State.

And even less of one that you'll defend their OOC scheduling despite what I consider evidence of its recent and near future inadequacy, and which you find to be more than acceptable. So be it. Our positions are clear.

Granted, that's an old thread, but there you have it.

Very well.

I certainly stand by what I said.

Many of these programs have everything to lose and nothing to gain by playing an up-and-comer like USF on the road. Penn State, in six years, played only Notre Dame and Boston College on the road in bigtime games, and BC is a bit of a stretch as an elite program.

Four games out of 22 on the road over six years is all the evidence I need that they're not interested in traveling to face formidable and unfamiliar opposition.

Of course, it could be argued that these other teams are being granted the privilege of playing Penn State, and there may be something to that. They (or, rather, you) are, after all, Penn State.

Compare their schedule, though, to a team like USC's. The Trojans certainly do more to prove they're an elite squad on a consistent basis than does PSU. On the other hand, the Trojans do more than just about any other team.

Insofar as I'm concerned, the research I presented does back up my assertions: Penn State does not play a particularly challenging OOC schedule (or at least will not over the 2004–2009 period), and rarely goes on the road ... and when the Big Ten is as down as it is, well, that means an unbeaten Mountain West school can at least make a decent argument to get into the BCS title game over 12-0 PSU.

We'll agree to disagree.

With the exception of the 2006-2007 stretch (where we played ND) PSU plays at least one BCS conference team a year (@BC, USF, Oregon State, @Syracuse) out of three to four possible games. That's about average for BCS conference OOC schedules, I'd reckon, if not better than average.

Well, I'll certainly give you that Notre Dame counts as a BCS school equivalent, if not better in many ways, in that they're almost always at least pretty good.

Where did you get Akron? gopsusports.com has a 'TBA' in the schedule, not Akron.

Just kinda rummaged around until I found this:

http://www.happyvalley.com/posts.php?id=1022

Fine, dismiss the win over Wisconsin.

Very well. At your request, it is summarily dismissed. ;)

It's certainly not something on which to mostly hang a number three ranking. Their win over Oregon State is at this point much more impressive, in that OSU's hung tough with Utah and beaten USC—that's BEATEN USC—while Wisconsin's done precisely dick besides beat Fresno State, lose to Ohio State, lose to woeful Michigan and bend over for Penn State.

Lots of talking heads thought they'd prove challenging and even Neroon (an excellent prognosticator) thought they'd give Penn State a run for their money. Penn State destroys them and all of a sudden they were nobody.

Why don't we just agree that the jury is out on both Air Force and Wisconsin, eh?

We seem to have gotten each other's opinions in full. No one's changing their mind. Perhaps it's time to move on, unless you have something you'd like to add.
 
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