MLB Offseason: Owners got a dinger of a CBA

[Timby]

Banning the shift is, like the pitch clock, a solution in search of a problem.

Leaguewide BABIP over time:

It has been historically high for the past 25 years, including well into the current shift trend, with a slight tick down in the small sample size 2020 COVID season.

There is no evidence that the explosion of shifting in the last ~5 years has depressed hits on balls put in play. This crusade against the shift is purely aesthetic or at best a misplaced appeal to traditionalism; it's people annoyed by / fearful of change, or who just see more shifting and assume it must be the reason there are fewer balls in play, when the evidence does not support this.

The real issue is fewer balls in play, and the culprit is strikeouts. So any attempt to fix the issue needs to target strikeout rates and TTO hitters. Defensive positioning is not the way to accomplish this.

 

[Worf factor9]

I'm not a huge fan of the shift either, to be honest.

Neither was Ted Williams, but he stubbornly kept goin' on and "pulling" into it.

I'm only a fan of the shift when it works for my team.

 

[Worf factor9]

The real issue is fewer balls in play, and the culprit is strikeouts.

BINGO!!

 

[Timby]

If anyone had any doubt as to just how much this lockout is purely about ideology, rather than economics, take a read at what the MLBPA offered in Sunday's offer, per Evan Drellich of The Athletic:

MLBPA proposal per source:
• Would grant MLB ability to implement 3 specific on-field changes w/45-day notice, starting w/2023 season: pitch clock, larger bases, shift restriction.
MLB also wants robo umps w/45-day, players didn’t offer
• Prearb pool starting at $80m, down $5m
More union proposal today:
• No change on CBT or minimums.
• If direct draft pick comp (qualifying offer) goes away, MLBPA now OK w/other CBT-related penalties (sometimes called non-monetary penalties)
• Some revenue sharing changes still on table for PA

The players are negotiating against themselves and made huge concessions. The players accepting non-monetary penalties for going over the CBT threshold is massive; there are exactly zero teams who will exceed the tax threshold if it means they lose draft picks. MLB turned around and said that the union's offer yesterday was somehow worse than the one given on Monday night. This isn't about the sport's economics at all; this is purely and simply about trying to break the union and bring it to heel, like a dog.

 

[Timby]

MLB has informed the union that if there is no deal struck by tonight, then there will be no 162-game season, and the players will be forced to forfeit any claim to full-season pay and service time credit.

 

[cardinal biggles]

MLB has canceled another week of the season; Opening Day would now be April 14th if the lockout ended today.

 

[BillJ]

MLB has canceled another week of the season; Opening Day would now be April 14th if the lockout ended today.

Meh.

 

[Timby]

A CBA has been reached. The players folded.

Players get:
-Increases to CBT threshold (but not nearly as much as they wanted, and still not in line with league revenues)
-Increases to base pay (but not as much as they wanted)
-A pre-arb bonus pool (only about a third of what they originally asked for )
-QO eliminated (but only if they agree to an international draft structure by July, otherwise it's here to stay)

Owners get:
-A fourth penalty tier added to the luxury tax, presumably with non-monetary penalties
-Either an international draft or QO status quo
-Status quo on revenue sharing, since they forced the players to drop it
-Status quo on player control / arb structure
-A 12-team expanded playoffs structure (reminder that the playoffs are basically free labor for owners)
-Ability to unilaterally expedite rule changes during the offseason without union approval
-MLBPA will drop all their lawsuits over the 2020 COVID season

Edit: Sounds like the rank and file got scared and blinked. The MLBPA's executive committee voted unanimously, 8-0, against the new CBA. The team vote was 26 in favor, 4 opposed.

 

[The Nth Doctor]

Ugghhhh...

But I'm also surprised it actually happened. I just figured it would be perpetually delayed until the postseason.

A postseason that's getting absurdly longer.

-Ability to unilaterally expedite rule changes during the offseason without union approval

This is especially worrisome.

 

[Worf factor9]

A CBA has been reached. The players folded.

Players get:
-Increases to CBT threshold (but not nearly as much as they wanted, and still not in line with league revenues)
-Increases to base pay (but not as much as they wanted)
-A pre-arb bonus pool (only about a third of what they originally asked for )
-QO eliminated (but only if they agree to an international draft structure by July, otherwise it's here to stay)

Owners get:
-A fourth penalty tier added to the luxury tax, presumably with non-monetary penalties
-Either an international draft or QO status quo
-Status quo on revenue sharing, since they forced the players to drop it
-Status quo on player control / arb structure
-A 12-team expanded playoffs structure (reminder that the playoffs are basically free labor for owners)
-Ability to unilaterally expedite rule changes during the offseason without union approval
-MLBPA will drop all their lawsuits over the 2020 COVID season

Edit: Sounds like the rank and file got scared and blinked. The MLBPA's executive committee voted unanimously, 8-0, against the new CBA. The team vote was 26 in favor, 4 opposed.

5-4-3, a liner triple-play.

 

[Timby]

Oh, the union also allowed the league to put ads / sponsor logos on uniforms.

 

[1001001]

Oh, the union also allowed the league to put ads / sponsor logos on uniforms.

Great, so now baseball will look like NASCAR?

 

[BillJ]

The players folded.

I guess even people who make a ton of money have to eat. Though I thought the players would hold out longer than this.

 

[The Nth Doctor]

Oh, the union also allowed the league to put ads / sponsor logos on uniforms.

Oh fuck off!

Great, so now baseball will look like NASCAR?

 

[Timby]

I guess even people who make a ton of money have to eat. Though I thought the players would hold out longer than this.

That's what's confusing to me. The MLBPA had been quietly amassing a war chest and was ready to begin distributing checks to players, including unsigned players, if games began getting officially canceled and a 162-game season was officially dead.

 

[BillJ]

That's what's confusing to me. The MLBPA had been quietly amassing a war chest and was ready to begin distributing checks to players, including unsigned players, if games began getting officially canceled and a 162-game season was officially dead.

Maybe they didn’t have as much in that war chest as they wanted people to think.

 

[Timby]

Maybe they didn’t have as much in that war chest as they wanted people to think.

As I understand it, all eight members of the executive committee had huge chunks of their 2021 salaries put into escrow in the event of a work stoppage so it could be added to the funds the MLBPA had been quietly adding since 2019.

It's very confusing.

In any event, the players got almost nothing out of this. Ugh.

 

[Kronos]

How does Clark keep his job? give him a few more negotiations and the reserve clause will be back.

 

[Timby]

How does Clark keep his job? give him a few more negotiations and the reserve clause will be back.

It's telling that the union started caving on issues when Clark entered negotiations (previously, Bruce Meyer had been leading them) on Saturday, and all of a sudden the union started moving more quickly to the league's demands.

 

[Aragorn]

Former pitcher Odalis Perez fell off a ladder and died at his home in the Dominican Republic.