MLB Discussion - 2012 Season

[Timby]

Cubs are about to extend Castro for seven years, $60 million, with a team option for the eighth year.

What the fuck is wrong with you, Theo? Any time you can lock up a player for huge money who has no plate discipline and is contending for the Starlin Castro Triple Crown (outs made, times caught stealing, errors), that's really something you don't want to do.

 

[R. Star]

Cubs are about to extend Castro for seven years, $60 million, with a team option for the eighth year.

What the fuck is wrong with you, Theo? Any time you can lock up a player for huge money who has no plate discipline and is contending for the Starlin Castro Triple Crown (outs made, times caught stealing, errors), that's really something you don't want to do.

Please say that's a joke. We still have team control of him for four years, why is he even -thinking- of an extension?

 

[Timby]

Cubs are about to extend Castro for seven years, $60 million, with a team option for the eighth year.

What the fuck is wrong with you, Theo? Any time you can lock up a player for huge money who has no plate discipline and is contending for the Starlin Castro Triple Crown (outs made, times caught stealing, errors), that's really something you don't want to do.

Please say that's a joke. We still have team control of him for four years, why is he even -thinking- of an extension?

It's not unheard-of for teams to buy out a player's arbitration years to get some guarantee of cost control.

It's just that they tend to do it with players who, you know, don't suck.

I mean, maybe the Cubs' endgame is that they think they can sucker some moron like Dan Duquette or Ben Cherington into trading for Castro because they'll think he's worth more because his arb years are bought out, but ... good Lord, this is a moronic contract extension if it goes through, because he's going to be untradeable junk during the last three years of the deal, after his exposure as a two-tool player is complete.

 

[Icemizer]

Hey Cubbies pitching and defense win. Signing a guy long term who is in the top three for errors every year is a recipie for failure. But of course you would know all about that wouldnt you.

 

[R. Star]

Hey Cubbies pitching and defense win. Signing a guy long term who is in the top three for errors every year is a recipie for failure. But of course you would know all about that wouldnt you.

Got any more pearls of wisdom? Maybe one I couldn't get from any drunk in the peanut gallery?

 

[SmoothieX]

Defense wins championships in one of the stupidest things I've ever heard.

 

[Use of Time]

Defense wins championships in one of the stupidest things I've ever heard.

Maybe, but it sure makes a difference when you have the edge on pitching matchups. Just ask the offensive heavy Texas Rangers who fell twice to teams that were nowhere near them offensively.

Castro is an exciting but very young player. I enjoy watching him and I feel that he will come around as he ages. The Cubs are a very young team and I think he would benefit from a veteran presence on the team.

 

[SmoothieX]

I completely agree with the pitching aspect. You get two hot pitchers heading into October and you have a great chance to walk out with some hardware.

 

[Timby]

Castro is an exciting but very young player. I enjoy watching him and I feel that he will come around as he ages.

He's 22 and a complete knucklehead with zero focus on the field and no plate discipline whatsoever. While he has a legitimate ability to hit for average, that's a pretty meaningless skill to have without much power, and when his ability to get on base is determined almost entirely on getting hits, a bad BABIP year would make him fundamentally useless at the plate. The Cubs should have sold him when his value was high, instead of sitting there and watching him be exposed as the latest in the Cubs' lineage of "elite" prospects who turn out to strike out a ton, slap singles and play shitty defense. Corey Patterson and Felix Pie, anyone?

 

[Use of Time]

Castro is an exciting but very young player. I enjoy watching him and I feel that he will come around as he ages.

He's 22 and a complete knucklehead with zero focus on the field and no plate discipline whatsoever. While he has a legitimate ability to hit for average, that's a pretty meaningless skill to have without much power, and when his ability to get on base is determined almost entirely on getting hits, a bad BABIP year would make him fundamentally useless at the plate. The Cubs should have sold him when his value was high, instead of sitting there and watching him be exposed as the latest in the Cubs' lineage of "elite" prospects who turn out to strike out a ton, slap singles and play shitty defense. Corey Patterson and Felix Pie, anyone?

Dude, he is 22 years old. Don't dismiss his ability to hit for average early as that is a better sign than hitting for power at his age. Hitting for power is learned and will evolve as he ages. You just can't be the kind of fan that has knee jerk reactions to players performance. What if the Braves had quit on Heyward after his sophomore slump last year? Castro has tremendous upside you just have to be patient. The Trout's and Trumbo's of the world are an exception and not the norm for young talent. He's also dealing with constant changes with Manager's and the players on the field which has caused his role in the lineup to always be in flux. He'll be fine.

 

[Timby]

As I said, hitting for average is a meaningless skill when it's your only ability to get on base -- a .280 batting average isn't worth shit when it's backed up by a .311 OBP. This isn't a knee-jerk reaction, either: During his entire career in the minors, he was allergic to walks, and instead of putting him in AAA to continue developing, they shot him up to the majors straight from AA. You can develop power, but you don't suddenly develop a brand-new eye for the strike zone. Add in the fact that he's a mental midget and should have his glove confiscated, and you've got a guy who will be struggling for a roster spot in two or three years.

 

[Use of Time]

As I said, hitting for average is a meaningless skill when it's your only ability to get on base -- a .280 batting average isn't worth shit when it's backed up by a .311 OBP. This isn't a knee-jerk reaction, either: During his entire career in the minors, he was allergic to walks, and instead of putting him in AAA to continue developing, they shot him up to the majors straight from AA. You can develop power, but you don't suddenly develop a brand-new eye for the strike zone. Add in the fact that he's a mental midget and should have his glove confiscated, and you've got a guy who will be struggling for a roster spot in two or three years.

You don't suddenly develop an eye for the strike zone? Yes, you absolutely can. It's called experience. This guy led the NL in hits at the age of 21. That is ridiculous. You say his "entire minor league" career like he is some journeyman college player. He hasn't hit less than .299 at any level except for this year. Man this is why fans aren't GM's. Like I said, tremendous upside with a little immaturity. I'd take him in a heartbeat. I've seen him play the field, he will make a few errors but he isn't the worst fielding shortstop I've seen. He still has good range and a strong arm. I think the errors will drop as well.

 

[Timby]

Are you even bothering to actually look at the rest of his statistics beyond his batting average? Hitting .299 every year is empty when the peripherals are so bad. As I said, a bad BABIP year is going to make him fundamentally useless at the plate, given his allergy to walks -- he basically has to hit .325 every year to just be league-average at getting on base. His OPS+ this year is 98 -- he isn't even performing at league average this season.

You're trying to justify a seven-year extension for a singles hitter who plays terrible defense and gets on base nearly as often as Alfonso Soriano, and could wind up leading the league in outs made, times caught stealing and errors all in one season, and your justification is "he hits for average." Batting average doesn't mean shit. That's the kind of old-school thinking that led to that hilariously awful Jayson Werth contract. I'm not saying he needs to hit like a moon monster to be worth keeping around, but good God almighty, it doesn't make the slightest lick of sense for the Cubs to make this deal, considering his ceiling gets lower every day.

Edit for some levity: It appears that Barry Zito has lost some velocity.

 

[Use of Time]

I'm aware of other statistics but you are speaking as if this guy is a career singles hitter with no eye. Which would be fine if he was 27 or 28 years old. He's 22 YEARS OLD. He led the NL in hits at the age of 21, an age where most of his peers aren't even in the majors yet. You have a seven year deal in which he will come out of at the age of 29. You are going to get the best years out of this guy. You give him stability with a manager, the players that surround him and give him a fucking role and see what happens. He's hit everywhere in the lineup and has no idea what his own organization wants him to be. I don't see him as the next Matt Kemp or anything but I think you've got yourself a solid two hole hitter for the next 7 years. Man you guys could do a lot worse than that. Just give him time, watch him develop, there is way too much upside to this guy.

 

[Ar-Pharazon]

If the guys behind Castro could hit consistently, those massive numbers of hits might count for something. That too will take time.

He'll come around.

As far as Zito, maybe he tried a knuckleball?

 

[Timby]

I'm aware of other statistics but you are speaking as if this guy is a career singles hitter with no eye. Which would be fine if he was 27 or 28 years old. He's 22 YEARS OLD. He led the NL in hits at the age of 21, an age where most of his peers aren't even in the majors yet. You have a seven year deal in which he will come out of at the age of 29. You are going to get the best years out of this guy. You give him stability with a manager, the players that surround him and give him a fucking role and see what happens. He's hit everywhere in the lineup and has no idea what his own organization wants him to be. I don't see him as the next Matt Kemp or anything but I think you've got yourself a solid two hole hitter for the next 7 years. Man you guys could do a lot worse than that. Just give him time, watch him develop, there is way too much upside to this guy.

How is there "way too much upside?"

Can he hit for average? Yes.

Can he run really, really fast? Yes.

Can he draw walks? No.

Can he avoid strikeouts? No.

Is he smart on the basepath? Fuck, no.

Can he hit for power? Not really.

Can he play defense? No.

Is he mentally focused on the field? Not one bit -- watch him whenever there's no one on base and the ball isn't in play, he's standing there scratching his ass. He's a lazy malcontent; there's a reason Lou Piniella, Mike Quade and Dale Sveum have been driven nuts by his lack of focus.

You know who else can run really fast and hit a ton of singles? Juan Pierre. But there's no rush to sign him to a seven-year deal. Castro could be a decent two-hole hitter, but I could grow antlers, too. There's no reason to lock up an under-performing slap hitter for seven goddamned years, putting yourself in a cage if he turns out to be a mediocre, replacement-level player (which Castro is projecting to be). Again, you're focusing on BATTING AVERAGE BATTING AVERAGE BATTING AVERAGE. Do you gauge a pitcher's worth by his number of wins?

 

[Ar-Pharazon]

^ He can play defense....when he's paying attention and not bird watching or scratching his ass.

 

[Use of Time]

I'm aware of other statistics but you are speaking as if this guy is a career singles hitter with no eye. Which would be fine if he was 27 or 28 years old. He's 22 YEARS OLD. He led the NL in hits at the age of 21, an age where most of his peers aren't even in the majors yet. You have a seven year deal in which he will come out of at the age of 29. You are going to get the best years out of this guy. You give him stability with a manager, the players that surround him and give him a fucking role and see what happens. He's hit everywhere in the lineup and has no idea what his own organization wants him to be. I don't see him as the next Matt Kemp or anything but I think you've got yourself a solid two hole hitter for the next 7 years. Man you guys could do a lot worse than that. Just give him time, watch him develop, there is way too much upside to this guy.

How is there "way too much upside?"

Can he hit for average? Yes.

Can he run really, really fast? Yes.

Can he draw walks? No.

Can he avoid strikeouts? No.

Is he smart on the basepath? Fuck, no.

Can he hit for power? Not really.

Can he play defense? No.

Is he mentally focused on the field? Not one bit -- watch him whenever there's no one on base and the ball isn't in play, he's standing there scratching his ass. He's a lazy malcontent; there's a reason Lou Piniella, Mike Quade and Dale Sveum have been driven nuts by his lack of focus.

You know who else can run really fast and hit a ton of singles? Juan Pierre. But there's no rush to sign him to a seven-year deal. Castro could be a decent two-hole hitter, but I could grow antlers, too. There's no reason to lock up an under-performing slap hitter for seven goddamned years, putting yourself in a cage if he turns out to be a mediocre, replacement-level player (which Castro is projecting to be). Again, you're focusing on BATTING AVERAGE BATTING AVERAGE BATTING AVERAGE. Do you gauge a pitcher's worth by his number of wins?

Here is the less dramatic answer from an outsider with a little perspective.

Can he hit for average? Yes.

Can he run really, really fast? Yes.

Can he draw walks? Not Right Now

Can he avoid strikeouts? Yes, he actually can.

Is he smart on the basepath? He can be.

Can he hit for power? Sometimes.

Can he play defense? Yes he can. (see Range, Arm strength.)

I'll add one more just to make things fun.

Has he peaked at the fucking age of 22? Hell no.

You know what he needs the most? Somebody to protect him in the lineup and a defined role in the lineup.

I get it man, you are a miserable Cubs fan and this year hasn't been that great. At the end of the day, wouldn't you be happier if I was right? I make no guarantees, he may only decline over the next seven years but I think that is extremely unlikely. Give it a chance. Watch him grow. What you see know is not what he will end up being.

P.S. This is nothing like the Jayson Werth trade. You want to know why? Jayson Werth is 33 years old, thats why.

 

[Tom Hendricks]

Timby, I'm not disagreeing with you but all I'll say is everything you said about Castro was said about Jose Reyes. While not comparing the two, all the same critiques were hurled at him.

On a lighter note, went to a Long Island Ducks game this evening. Had a lot of fun with my son Ian. I got to meet the bench coach and former Mets Bud Harrelson and I got his autograph as well. The funny thing is that one of their pitchers is the magnanimous Armondo Benitez. Unfortunately it was a blow out, Ducks won 8-1. So no chance to see if Benitez could choke in the middle of no-where Long Island. Also the starting DH was Timo Perez, who went 0-4 and is batting .287 in this league. I guess the fall is hard and when you want to play baseball enough, this is where you end up. Is John Rocker wanting another comeback try, I guess the Ducks would resign him, again.

 

[Ar-Pharazon]

^ Is that guy related to Ken Harrelson?