Malaysian airliner feared lost..

[Miss Chicken]

I have thought all along that this disaster was similar to what happened on Helios Airways Flight 522 i.e. That for some reason the flight crew, and most likely everyone else, lost consciousness, and the plane continued on auto-pilot until it ran out of fuel and crashed. However I think that their loss of consciousness had different causes.

The events in Flight 522 took place so quickly that the pilots didn't work out what was happening and the plane just continued on its original course. In the Malaysian airlines case the pilots did realise the problem and did alter the course as well as carry out other procedures before they losed consciousness. Also unlike Flight 522 there was multiple failures (communications etc) but no failure bad enough to cause the plane to crash.

Also, if any of the pilots' actions seemed a little bizarre couldn't that be explain by the confusion caused by oxygen deprivation?

 

[BigJake]

Also, if any of the pilots' actions seemed a little bizarre couldn't that be explain by the confusion caused by oxygen deprivation?

Pilots have been known to become disoriented and fly off on odd headings while trying to find a viable course. That likely accounts for a number of the "inexplicable" crashes that build the Bermuda Triangle's supernatural rep.

 

[farmkid]

Attributing it all to an onboard catastrophe alone is problematic

Attributing it all to anything other than a catastrophe is problematic, too, because put yourself in potential hijackers' shoes, and what the heck was the point of this? Not quite to Australia by way of going the wrong direction for a while... why?

There has been some speculation that it was a hijacking with the aim of trying something out. The idea is that they have some specific target in mind, but they weren't sure their plan would work, so they did this as a trial run to test the plan. It's a kind of far-fetched plan, but it is not inconsistent (or at least no more inconsistent than other hypotheses) with the data.

 

[Mr Awe]

You keep saying that, but... why? Auto-pilot would maintain course and altitude, and make whatever turns you program into it. And doesn't care if the air is toxic or not. And will fly until it runs out of gas. Pilots could have been flying at first, which accounts for some, but then overcome by events and manage to get autopilot on or something?

It just a matter of probabilities. It's unlikely that a catastrophic event that disables ACARS, the radio communication, the transponder, the oxygen mask system, and the crew, would leave the plane apparently fully flight worthy!

It's not impossible, just far from the most likely scenario. A plane with that much damage won't usually be flight worthy. On the other hand, there is evidence of human intervention.

Also, even if you accept that such an improbable catastrophic event happened, they did manage to get down to an altitude where they could breathe without oxygen masks. So, the plane at this point is flying in a stable configuration, and the occupants should be able to breathe.

The plane was directed to a lower altitude so even if the pilots passed out from lack of oxygen (assuming their masks aren't working), they would revive in the lower altitude. It wouldn't take so long to get down low enough so they should be OK.

The pilots can even open the cockpit windows at this altitude to clear smoke. And, that's if the ventilation system didn't work already.

The slow rate of the initial course change also doesn't suggest a crisis. There is also another apparent course change (and likely altitude change) after the last known radar contact that would be necessary to get the plane down to the southern arc. Why would the pilots program that course change in? Surely they'd know that their flight would end in the ocean?

I don't pretend to know what happened. It could've been entirely an accident, but that doesn't seem to be the most probable. And, by human intervention, it doesn't necessarily imply that any of the crew instigated it.

Mr Awe

 

[Mr Awe]

Attributing it all to an onboard catastrophe alone is problematic

Attributing it all to anything other than a catastrophe is problematic, too, because put yourself in potential hijackers' shoes, and what the heck was the point of this? Not quite to Australia by way of going the wrong direction for a while... why?

Suicide of someone on the plane? Or maybe terrorists encountered more resistance than expected and their plan failed?

Mr Awe

 

[Kirby]

I think there was just something mechanical that caused this, like the Payne Stewart crash in 1999. They were supposed to fly from Florida to Texas, and somehow the plane depressurized and everyone on board was either dead or unconsious while the auto pilot took the plane way off course, and to all sorts of different altitues, and eventually crashed in South Dakota. Air Force jets checked it out during the flight and they saw people slumped over in their seats, and the cockpit recorder only recorded the loud blaring sound of the pressure warning system.

 

[Mr Awe]

^ Except that someone was controlling the Malaysian plane and they got it down to an altitude where they could breathe even if the aircraft was deppressurized.

 

[Kirby]

^True, and hopefully they can recover the plane and officially figure out what happened, so everyone can put this to rest. I just get the feeling that this was a mechanical issue, or several issues, and not anything nefarious like a hijacking or a pilot suicide. Of course everyone has their theories, and any of them could be right at this point (except for maybe the CNN anchor who thought they were sucked up by a black hole).

 

[Mr Awe]

^ I suppose if there's nothing nefarious, it could be something like an accident plus confusion due to lack of oxygen. I don't think it's just an accident though. Seems like something else would be a contributing factor.

Otherwise, they get it down to the lower altitude as they did, start breathing normally, and then land the thing! That didn't happen so it seems like there is something more going on.

(And, that's assuming that for whatever reason the pilots weren't using their oxygen masks.)

But, no way to know for sure. As you say, hopefully they recover the plane and can figure it out.

 

[Candlelight]

http://dailycurrant.com/2014/03/20/palin-wonders-if-flight-370-flew-directly-to-heaven-2/

 

[publiusr]

I wonder if this might be chalked up to ground crew maintenancehttp://www.bing.com/search?q=maintainance&src=IE-TopResult&FORM=IE10TR#
http://kxan.com/2014/03/17/part-of-delta-air-lines-plane-wing-flies-off/

Then too, there would have been a mayday one would think. One might fly a bit to avoid the suicide claim if one wanted to buy the farm--if a pilot had financial troubles, but that would be the one pilot.

A missing wing piece might change the aerodynamics, forcing the crew to fight the plane--but this was fly by wire...

One last bit of speculation.

Has anyone here ever had a problem with stuck buttons, keys--say after a drink was spilled on it?

If the crew were lax about letting party girls in the cockpit, maybe a drink was spilled. Might that be a possibility?

I seem to remember an engineer who was texting a young train buff causing an accident.

Could it be something as simple as "What does this do?"

"Don't! Ah, the damn thing is stuck now! You've spilled...mayday mayday...no one hears us...great...just great..."

 

[chrisspringob]

The Daily Telegraph says that investigators don't believe this was an accident:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...de-mission-theory-of-MH370-investigators.html

The team investigating the Boeing 777’s disappearance believe no malfunction or fire was capable of causing the aircraft’s unusual flight or the disabling of its communications system before it veered wildly off course on a seven-hour silent flight into the sea. An analysis of the flight’s routing, signalling and communications shows that it was flown “in a rational way”.

An official source told The Telegraph that investigators believe “this has been a deliberate act by someone on board who had to have had the detailed knowledge to do what was done ... Nothing is emerging that points to motive.”

 

[Captrek]

The obvious question: was there anyone other than the pilots known to be onboard and to have the necessary skills? Surely most of the other 237 missing people can be eliminated as suspects.

 

[chrisspringob]

Btw, I don't think this has been posted yet here, but another piece of info that came out recently (and was overshadowed by other news of the apparent debris, satellite pings, etc.) is this:

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com...lying-without-minder/articleshow/32611834.cms

The co-pilot of the flight: This was his first flight serving as co-pilot of a 777 in which he didn't have a trainer on board with him.

 

[Captrek]

He was also the one who spoke to ATC and indicated all was well, after the first transponder was disabled. Also, the other pilot who briefly established radio contact and heard mumbling said "The voice on the other side could have been either Captain Zaharie (Ahmad Shah, 53,) or Fariq (Abdul Hamid, 27), but I was sure it was the copilot."

It certainly looks like Fariq did it. The reasons are a mystery. Perhaps the Cockpit Voice Recorder will shed light on that. It looks increasingly likely that it will be recovered.

 

[chrisspringob]

Perhaps the Cockpit Voice Recorder will shed light on that. It looks increasingly likely that it will be recovered.

Even if they find some debris floating on the water that can definitively be proven to belong to the flight, it's had so long to drift now that that doesn't necessarily show them exactly where the crash took place. The satellite data is also only so useful in locating the crash site, since we don't know exactly how long after the last ping the plane went down.

There's a good chance that the Cockpit Voice Recorder is at the bottom of the ocean, ~5 km down, and it's not obvious to me that they're ever going to find it. That may have been part of the plan, if this was done intentionally. To crash it somewhere where it'll never be found, to create an eternal mystery.

 

[Starkers]

He was also the one who spoke to ATC and indicated all was well, after the first transponder was disabled. Also, the other pilot who briefly established radio contact and heard mumbling said "The voice on the other side could have been either Captain Zaharie (Ahmad Shah, 53,) or Fariq (Abdul Hamid, 27), but I was sure it was the copilot."

It certainly looks like Fariq did it. The reasons are a mystery. Perhaps the Cockpit Voice Recorder will shed light on that. It looks increasingly likely that it will be recovered.

Is it possible he said that not noticing that the transponder had been switched off? Do we know how noticeable that is? If the pilot had surreptitiously switched it off would the co-pilot of necessarily noticed unless he was looking right at it? He may also, for all we know, have been acting under duress. Also the BBC seem to suggest the transponder was turned off after that last message according to their timeline? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26503141

If it is suicide then that still doesn’t quite explain everything. Could one person acting alone take control of a plane? I was reading an interview with someone experienced as cabin crew yesterday, and she said that even though the cockpits are secure, cabin crew have ways of getting inside.

Also if you want to commit suicide you could probably quite easily accomplish that just after takeoff, or at any point during the flight, so why go off the grid unless you A/wanted to ensure the plane was never found so the world wouldn’t know what you’d done, or B/In your mind dying wasn’t enough you wanted to become a myth/legend worthy of the Bermuda triangle.

Of course it’s possible that whoever was flying the plane wasn’t suicidal, but was delusional enough that they thought they were flying towards safety.

The trouble is no theory, from the wackiest to the most rational, quite explains everything. I think when (IF!) what happened is determined it will probably sit closer to the rational end of the spectrum.

 

[Ar-Pharazon]

The obvious question: was there anyone other than the pilots known to be onboard and to have the necessary skills? Surely most of the other 237 missing people can be eliminated as suspects.

I don't think they know who had the 2 stolen passports.

 

[chrisspringob]

Also the BBC seem to suggest the transponder was turned off after that last message according to their timeline? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26503141

Yes, I believe that's correct--that the transponder was turned off *after* the last message.

If it is suicide then that still doesn’t quite explain everything. Could one person acting alone take control of a plane? I was reading an interview with someone experienced as cabin crew yesterday, and she said that even though the cockpits are secure, cabin crew have ways of getting inside.

I don't know. I'd like to see an expert comment on that, on how exactly you get into the cockpit if the pilot(s) lock themselves in there. Also, can the pilots change the pressure in the cabin, using controls in the cockpit? If so, they could incapacitate the passengers, and avoid having to worry about a passenger revolt.

Also if you want to commit suicide you could probably quite easily accomplish that just after takeoff, or at any point during the flight, so why go off the grid unless you A/wanted to ensure the plane was never found so the world wouldn’t know what you’d done, or B/In your mind dying wasn’t enough you wanted to become a myth/legend worthy of the Bermuda triangle.

Well yes, that would be the reason for doing it this way. To crash the plane in such a way that you potentially prevent people from finding out what happened. *Why* do you want to prevent people from finding out what happened? I don't know. I can't get inside the mind of someone who would do something like this.

The trouble is no theory, from the wackiest to the most rational, quite explains everything. I think when (IF!) what happened is determined it will probably sit closer to the rational end of the spectrum.

Right. The problem is that every theory is improbable, and so there's disagreement about which ones are closer to the rational end of the spectrum.

 

[rhubarbodendron]

maybe now they apparently found wrackage they'll find the black box. That should help at least eliminate a few theories.

At any rate it's just terrible The poor people and their families