The events in the timeline from this point forward are completely unpredictable and will unfold in totally different ways. What happened the last time around is in no way guaranteed or even remotely likely to occur this time around, save for those that would be unaffected by the regional changes (such as the whale probe). And the further in time we go, the greater the discontinuity becomes.
So there's nothing to really argue or contemplate when it comes to Kirk's promotion. If it happens, it happens, and will happen on its own accord. Not one based on whatever happened in another timeline. That timeline doesn't mean jack squat anymore aside, at least in relation to this one.
That's kind of how I see it too, other than the whale probe, (which even in this timeline should be on its way) and Vger I don't think any of the stories would be set in stone. They may still encounter Khan, but who knows. I kind of doubt that one, they'd have to be in the right place at the right time.
Personally, I am looking forward to seeing the new crew and what they have in store for them. If I want to see Prime ST, I just watch my dvds.