Is 3D dead already?

[Rii]

I love the smell of burning fads in the morning; smells like ... victory.

Slate: Is 3-D Dead in the Water?

Another summer weekend, another 3-D blockbuster (Piranha 3-D), and yet one more round of industry speculation: Will newfangled stereographic technology save Hollywood? Or has the 3-D revival run its course?

[....]

According to Daniel Frankel of TheWrap.com, who published a version of the graph late last month, "no matter how it's spun, the data on the expected 3-D explosion just isn't going in the right direction." Hollywood isn't ready to give up, he reports, but there's serious concern over the downward slope. As one theater-chain executive told Frankel, "the truth is probably that not everything should be in 3-D."

[....]

Here's the simplest way to interpret this graph: 3-D has been getting less and less profitable, relative to 2-D, over the past five years. It's an ominous, downward trend that started long before Avatar and Alice in Wonderland and continued after. (The red dotted line represents a break-even point, where screenings in 3-D and 2-D theaters make exactly the same amount of money.)

The trend begins at what I take to be the start of the revival—the November 2004 release of The Polar Express, the first-ever IMAX 3-D feature. That film opened in 3,650 theaters around the country, of which just 59 were equipped to show in 3-D. But the revenue from each of those premium screens was almost $40,000, compared with $6,000 for flat-showings. At the beginning, the 3-D bonus was an incredible 575 percent.

Only a handful of 3-D movies came out over the next few years, but the format already appeared to be losing ground. Beowulf opened at 742 3-D theaters in the fall of 2007 and about 3,150 theaters overall. When you compare the 3-D showings to the ones in 2-D, the added revenue was 135 percent.

Flash-forward two more years, to Christmas 2009, and the undisputed king of 3-D movies, Avatar. As we've seen, the extra revenue from the sci-fi epic's 3-D screenings was 70 percent. When Alice in Wonderland came out three months later, the bonus had dropped to 53 percent. This past May, Shrek Forever After saw a boost of 48 percent. In July, The Last Airbender managed just 24 percent.

Then we come to the weekend of June 18, 2010, when Toy Story 3 opened in more than 4,000 theaters around the country. It was a huge weekend for the Pixar film—one of the biggest of all time, in fact, with more than $110 million in total revenue, and $66 million from 3-D. Yet a close look at the numbers shows something else: On average, Toy Story 3 pulled in $27,000 for every theater showing the movie in 3-D, and $28,000 for every one that showed it flat. In other words, the net effect of showing Woody, Buzz, and friends in full stereo depth was negative 5 percent. The format was losing money.

[....]

Either way, the prognosis for 3-D seems dire: There's either too much supply or not enough demand. For mainstream movies that can be viewed in either format, the added benefit of screening in three dimensions is trending toward zero.

For my part, I don't mind the 3D effect, but I don't think it adds much to the experience either, and am unwilling to pay for it.

 

[clint g]

I strongly believe that it will be nothing more than a fad until they find a way to get it to work without glasses. Nintendo seems to be on the way there but replicating that to larger screens will probably take a while

 

[Mr. Laser Beam]

I strongly believe that it will be nothing more than a fad until they find a way to get it to work without glasses.

Agreed.

 

[Owain Taggart]

It might not be dead, but I do think 3D as an industry is not as high-capacity that has been hoped. We're still in a rather young stage of 3D at the moment, and it's going to take awhile before we get more 3D movies in Avatar-like quality. Since the technology is so expensive to develop for, both consumer and professionally, we won't be fully seeing its advantage until years from now.

 

[Alidar Jarok]

While there does seem to be a trend, it's also noticeable that, with the exception of Toy Story, most of the underwhelming movies did less well in 3-D (people didn't want to justify 3-D unless the experience was worth it). Piranhas will be the same way.

There are two factors to consider. One, the novelty has worn off. People won't just see any movie because it's in 3D. Two, it's a lot more common now then when it started (if you have to travel to a special theater in NYC, you'll pay more per ticket). It's a supply and demand thing. But I do agree that, short of special movies that truly warrant it, I don't think people will go out of their way for 3-D (which suggests 3-D television channels are going to do even poorer).

 

[diankra]

It's not a fad, but 3-D was always likely to lose its novelty.
In the same way, Lawmower Man was a big hit when it came out, because the CGI looked like nothing seen before. Watch it now and it's a gimmick film that wastes an idea that could have made a much better film.
Every time there's a new screen development there's an initial wave of succes, then a flop, and then it becomes so normal everyboday takes it for granted. I mean, could you now name the first film with stereo sound without looking it up?

 

[destructive]

:

 

[Venardhi]

Also note that with one or two exceptions, every movie they mention sucked giant flesh-eating 3d piranha balls. You can't try to build a data set like this without comparable movies, both quality-wise and as far as spectacle (added appeal of seeing in 3d).

 

[destructive]

No, not even close:

2010:
14. Resident Evil: Afterlife (September 10, 2010) (Screen Gems) (Paul WS Anderson, Writer, Director) A reboot of the zombie movie trilogy.
15. Legend Of The Guardians (Formerly Guardians Of Ga'Hoole) (September 24, 2010) (Warner) (Director, Zack Snyder) Animation. Soren, a young barn owl, is kidnapped by owls of St. Aggie's, ostensibly an orphanage, where owlets are brainwashed into becoming soldiers. He and his new friends escape to the island of Ga'Hoole.
16. Around The World in 50 Years (October 21, 2010 - Netherlands) (nWave) (Director, Ben Stassen) (Producers, Gina Gallo, Mimi Maynard, Domonic Paris, Caroline Van Iseghem & Ben Stassen) Animation. Voices by: Tim Curry, Anthony Anderson, Ed Begley Jr., Pat Carroll, Kathy Griffin, Melanie Griffith, Stacy Keach and Jenny McCarthy. Story revolves around a turtle born in 1959 who travels the globe while it is being affected by global warming.
17. Black Friday 3D (October 15, 2010) (Blood Worx Films) (Ethan Terra, Director/Writer) (Joe Knetter, Writer) A couple is viciously assaulted while vacationing. The local authorities and Diane's older brother Kevin enlists the help of four college friends to seek out the machete wielding killer. The friends soon find themselves face to face with the infamous serial killer Tyler Hillburg.
18. Saw VII (October 22, 2010) (Lionsgate) (Writer, Marcus Dunstan)
19. The Legend of Spyro (October 25, 2010) (Universal Animation Studios) (Animation Picture Company) (John Davis, Producer) (Mark Dippe, Director) Animation. A young dragon whose destiny is to battle evil forces in Dragon World. Spyro must learn to fly, breath fire and battle aided by his friends and family. Voices by Gary Oldman (Ignitus) and Elijah Wood (Spyro).
20. Megamind (November 5, 2010) (Dreamworks Animation) A villain loses his motivation after accidentally killing his arch nemesis. Voices: Robert Downey Jr., Tina Fey.
21. Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 1 (November 19, 2010) (2D To 3D Conversion) The final book split into two movies
22. Tangled (Formerly Rapunzel) (November 24, 2010) (Disney) (Directors: Glen Keane, Dean Wellins) be transported to a stunning CG fantasy world complete with the iconic tower, an evil witch, a gallant hero and, of course, the mysterious girl with the long golden tresses.
23. The Chronicles Of Narnia: The Voyage Of The Dawn Trader (December 9, 2010) (2D To 3D Conversion) (Fox) (Director, Michael Apted)
24. Tron: Legacy (December 17, 2010) (Disney) (Director: Joseph Kosinski) A revisit to Tron.


2011:
1. Cabin In The Woods (January 14, 2011) (MGM) A group of college kids spend a weekend at a mysterious cabin in the woods that white-collar co-workers have a mysterious connection.
2. The Green Hornet (January 14, 2011) (2D To 3D Conversion) (Sony) (Director, Michel Gondry) Re imagining of the classic
3. Drive Angry (February 11, 2011) (NuImage / Millenium Films) Nicholas Cage starrer. A man exacts revenge on the murderer of his daughter and her baby.
4. James Cameron's Sanctum 3D (March 4, 2011) (Universal) Based on true events, this adventure drama concerns a father and son who are trapped in an underwater cave with a team of divers as the group strives to stay alive against all hope.
5. Priest (March 4, 2011) (Sony Screen Gems) (Paul Bettany, Karl Urban) A warrior priest disobeys Church law by teaming with a young sheriff and a beautiful priestess to track down a band of renegade vampires.
6. Rio (April 8, 2011) (Fox) (Blue Sky Studios) (Carlos Saldanha, Director) "centers on a nerdy macaw who leaves the comforts of his cage in small-town Minnesota and heads to Rio de Janeiro."
7. Kung Fu Panda: The Kaboom Of Doom (DWA) (June 3, 2011) (Jennifer Yu Helson, Director) Jack Black, Angelina Jolie again lend their voices.
8. Transformers 3 (Paramount) (Director, Michael Bay)
9. Rise Of The Apes (Fox) (Director, Rupert Wyatt) (Writers, Amanda Silver & Rick Jaffa) (Producers, Peter Chermin & Dylan Clark) A prequel to The Planet Of The Apes. Effects by Weta.
10. Green Lantern (Warner Bros.) (Director, Martin Campbell)
11. Harry Potter And The Deathly Hallows: Part 2 (July 15, 2011) (2D To 3D Conversion) The final book split into two movies.
12. Smurfs 3D (July 29, 2011) (Columbia) (Colin Brady, Director) 3D animation based on the classic children's characters.
13. Newt (Summer 2011) (Disney-Pixar) (Director, Gary Rydstrom) What happens when the last remaining male and female blue-footed newts on the planet are forced together by science to save the species, and they can't stand each other?
14. Underworld 4 (September 23, 2011) (Sony Screen Gems) Fourth movie in the vampire vs. lycan franchise.
15. The Guardians (November 4, 2011) (William Joyce, Author) (Jeff Lynch, Director) The story brings together MAJOR children's heros as Santa Claus, the Easter Bunny, the Tooth Fairy, Jack Frost and the Sandman — to defend the world from a Bogeyman-like villain.
16. Cars 2 (Summer 2011) (Disney-Pixar) (Director, Brad Lewis) Mater and McQueen will need their passports as they find themselves in a new world of intrigue, thrills and fast-paced comedic escapades around the globe.
17. Happy Feet 2 (November 18, 2011) (Warner Bros) Sequel to the first massive musical animation hit.
18. The Invention Of Hugo Cabret (December 9, 2011) (Sony) (Director, Martin Scorsese) A 12 year old orphan solves a mystery surrounding a broken robot.
19. Tintin (December 23, 2011) (Peter Jackson, Steven Spielberg) (Paramount / Sony) Motion Capture. Jamie Bell stars as the globetrotting young reporter Tintin, who faces off against the nefarious Red Rackham, played by Daniel Craig. Andy Serkis, Simon Pegg, Nick Frost, Gad Elmaleh, Toby Jones and Mackenzie Crook co-star.
20. The Devil's Commandos (Raw) (Director, Thomas Jane) A WWII commando unit sent on a rescue mission. Pretty straight forward. Except for the part where hell opens up and they have to fight Satan's army.
21. The Three Musketeers (Constantin Films) (Producer, Paul W.S. Anderson) Contemporary re-imagining of the classic Dumas tale.
22. Frankenweenie (2011) (Tim Burton / Disney) Digital 3D: Stop Motion Animation. A young boy brings his dog back from the dead.
23. Paradise Lost (2011) (Warner Brothers) (Legendary Pictures) (Scott Derrickson, Director) Based on the Milton poem. Lucifer's failed rebellion in heaven brings about Adam and Eve's fall from grace.
24. Halloween 3D (2011) (Weinsteins) (Dimension Films) (Writers: Todd Farmer, Lussier) (Director: Patrick Lussier) Third iteration of the re-energized horror franchise.
25. Beauty And The Beast (2011) (2D To 3D Conversion) (Disney) The original converted to 3D.
26. Empires Of The Deep (2011) (Native 3D) (Director, Michael French) (Consulting Stereographer, Anthony Arendt) Olga Kurylenko plays a mermaid queen. Set in ancient Greece, the story tells about a young man’s adventure in the undersea mermaid kingdom in order to save his father, while encountering ferocious sea monsters and gets involved in large-scale battles in the seabed between mermaids, monsters and demons.

2012:
1. Stretch Armstrong (March 2012) (Universal) (Producer, Brian Grazer) (Writer, Steve Oedekerk) Taylor Lautner plays Hasbro's Stretch Armstrong.
2. Puss In Boots: The Story Of An Ogre Killer (March 30, 2012) (DWA) (Chris Miller, Director) is a prequel to SHREK 2 (where PIB is introduced to the franchise)
3. Battleship (May 18, 2012) (Universal) (Director, Peter Berg) A fleet of ships is forced to do battle with an armada of unknown origins in order to discover and thwart their destructive goals.
4. Madagascar 3 (May 18, 2012) (Dreamworks Animation) (Eric Darnell, Director) The zoo creatures go on a European tour through a traveling circus.
5. Men In Black III (May 25, 2012) (Columbia) (Director, Barry Sonnenfeld)
6. Brave (Formerly "The Bear and the Bow") (June 15, 2012) (Disney-Pixar) (Director, Brenda Chapman) A rugged and mythic Scotland is the setting for Pixar's action-adventure "The Bear and the Bow."
7. Ice Age: Continental Drift (July 13, 2012) (Fox) More of the worldwide smash franchise.
8. Yellow Submarine (Summer 2012) (Disney) (Robert Zemeckis, Director) Remake of the Beatles musical
9. The Croods (November 12, 2012) (DWA) (Formally "Crood Awakening") (John Cleese, Writer, Voice Actor) This animation is set in prehistoric times where a leader of a tribe is threatened by a newcomer genius with inventions such as fire. Official site is here. Other options for this time slot from DWA include "Truckers" and "Super Secret Ghost Project".
10. King of the Elves (Christmas 2012) (Disney-Pixar) (Directors, Aaron Blaise, Robert Walker) Legendary storyteller Phillip K. Dick's short story (his only experiment in the fantasy genre) becomes the basis for this fantastic and imaginative tale about an average man living in the Mississippi Delta, whose reluctant actions to help a desperate band of elves leads them to
name him their new king.
11. Monsterpocalypse (2012) (Director, Tim Burton) (Producer, Roy Lee) Based on the board game.

2013:
1. How To Train Your Dragon 2 (2013) (Dreamworks Animation) Sequel for the smash hit of 2010.

And this is just a partial list, for more info:

http://marketsaw.blogspot.com/2007/04/list-of-upcoming-3d-movies.html

 

[The Borgified Corpse]

I think a lot of it comes from poor 3-D experiences. While 3-D truly enhanced the immersive experience of Avatar, crappy entries in the genre tarnished its lustre, like Clash of the Titans & The Last Airbender.

It's no different from any other genre or innovation, like comic book movies. Spider-Man was really good. Jonah Hex sucked balls. The sucky ones remind us that not everything in this genre/format will be good and that we need to be discerning about which ones we see.

 

[Rii]

Also note that with one or two exceptions, every movie they mention sucked giant flesh-eating 3d piranha balls. You can't try to build a data set like this without comparable movies, both quality-wise and as far as spectacle (added appeal of seeing in 3d).

Granted, the data set will get a lot better over the next couple years. But note that some of the better films performed worst; even Avatar's fits the trend of declining 3D:2D performance which the author notes. And Toy Story 3 certainly seems a promising candidate for 3D.

Regardless, if the technique only works (financially) for certain types of films, i.e. >$150m visual extravaganzas that also happen to be half-decent (only 'half-decent' because Avatar hardly qualifies as any more than that ) films, then it's hardly a revolution for the industry akin to the talkie/colour transitions folks like to play it up as.

 

[paudemge]

I think it depends on how much extra it costs to make 3d. And if the studio thinks the percentage of people watching in 3d represents extra revenue.
I haven't watched any of these new movies in 3d, but I assume that you can't watch the 3d version without the glasses?

I think if they could make it where you could view the movie in 2d, or 3d if you had the glasses, it might simplify the process for the theaters

 

[Trekker4747]

I think it's being overused, really, really, really overused. After Avatar, or around the same time, practically every movie has been in 3D, even if it wasn't even filmed that way.

Hmmm.

I wonder if they'll do the next Twilight movie in 3D? What with the chest-burster demon Human/Vampire birth and all.

 

[Brikar99]

I don't care for 3D. It's a fine enough gimmick, but that's all it really is. It doesn't make the actual movie any better. A crappy 3D movie is just a crappy movie in 3D. Likewise, a good movie is a good movie in 3D.

I do know that I'm constantly hearing about 3D looking really crappy. "The Last Airbender" and "Clash of the Titans" get thrown about a lot when people are talking about 3D turning otherwise fine-looking movies into dark, muddy messes.

 

[Sakrysta]

I do NOT understand the love-fest Hollywood has had for 3-D this go-round. Didn't they learn their lesson when it was first possible decades ago? I just really don't see the point. It's a stupid gimmick for which a story has to be either specifically tailored from the beginning, or else elements must be shoehorned into the story to take advantage of the effect. Either way, it weakens storytelling, which is the heart and soul of moviemaking.

 

[Candlelight]

I can't speak for movies but we're about to start work on a 20-ep season of 3D tv shows, so I don't think it's dead just yet.

 

[Klaus]

I wish it were...

 

[Agenda]

I do NOT understand the love-fest Hollywood has had for 3-D this go-round.

It's all about pirating. They want to create an experience that can't be replicated on your computer, so there is more of an incentive to see it at the theatre.

 

[darthraidr]

it's a neat attempt at a stop-gap for the dwindling number of movie goers... but in the end, the same problem emerge, watching movies is too expensive. watching 3-d movies is even more expensive.

when a movie does 3d well, the price is worth it. but the same can be said of any movie on a general basis... when a movie is well crafted, the price is worth it.

if movies are to appeal to the mainstream, then they should be priced accordingly. if you want families to attend, make it cheaper or seriously delay the dvd release. if people knew, "i wont be able to see this movie at home for a year or more" they would be more inclined to see it in the theater. as it stands now, a family can simply say, "we won't see it in the theater for $40, we will wait three months and buy it for $15."

movies in 3d have a slight advantage in that they are still more of a spectacle. however since there are so many 3d movies now the novelty is wearing thin. i am highly suspicious of 3d tvs since not only are they pricey, but the glasses are also very pricey.

is 3d dead? no. is it over-exposed? yes. will it save the movie theaters? nope. imho, theaters as they operate now are in a death spiral.

 

[Harvey]

No, not even close:

http://marketsaw.blogspot.com/2007/04/list-of-upcoming-3d-movies.html

Considering the lead-time required for films of any sort (2D or 3D) it's no wonder that there is a large slate of 3D films on the schedule, especially after the big successes of Avatar, Clash of the Titans, and Alice and Wonderland (which all hit 8 months ago).

The article wasn't arguing that 3D films aren't being produced and released anymore. It did present some compelling data, though, which suggests that if 3D films don't start to perform better (and on a wide scale), the recent explosion of the format might begin to seriously die back down.