In the next 50 years, which space agencies will send a human into space.

[EmoBorg]

Which space agencies s do you think will develop the technical know how and expertise to send a astronaut into space and bring him or her back to earth, using their own designed and built spacecraft.

The Soviet Space Program did it in April 1961. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in May 1961and the China National Space Administration in 2003.

 

[Asbo Zaprudder]

I believe India is working toward such a goal. I think Japan and ESA prefer to pay for rides.

 

[publiusr]

I'm surprised no one has gone the pressure-fed route in a big way. OTRAG, Sea Dragon. Not counting any microlaunchers

 

[EmoBorg]

I believe India is working toward such a goal. I think Japan and ESA prefer to pay for rides.

I think India is trying to launch their own astronaut into space is a matter of pride for them. The Europeans and the Japanese are more pragmatic.

A private company might send a human into space one day in the near future.

 

[Asbo Zaprudder]

I think India is trying to launch their own astronaut into space is a matter of pride for them. The Europeans and the Japanese are more pragmatic.

A private company might send a human into space one day in the near future.

The Indians seem eager to compete with the Chinese in demonstrating their technological capability. France had plans for an Ariane-5 launched reusable spaceplane, Hermes, but it was cancelled in 1992 as being too expensive compared to paying the US or Russia for flights. But, yes, Musk and/or Bezos seem likely to get people into orbit or even beyond within the next few years. I don't count suborbital efforts like Virgin Galactic as being serious attempts at a manned space program.

 

[publiusr]

I don't count suborbital efforts like Virgin Galactic as being serious attempts at a manned space program.

Agreed. They need to reach out to Stratolaunch. SS@ and White Knight @ are still too small. The stratolauncher could carry something with more seats and more margin.

 

[XCV330]

I'm surprised no one has gone the pressure-fed route in a big way. OTRAG, Sea Dragon. Not counting any microlaunchers

The idea of the Big Dumb Booster was keen when turbopumps, ullage motors etc were prohibitively expensive but new manufacturing processes, or just doing what Electron is doing and going the electric motor route is making the point moot. I used to think someone would try it. I seem to remember that Beale was going for that, but now it seems like a dead end. Fastrac may well have been one of the most important NASA programs, in terms of the effects its had on engine manufacturing going forward. The people involved don't get much credit. Out of X-33, X-34, VentureStar, X-37, etc, the big experiments of the 90s, I would say the two things that have changed spaceflight the most are Delta Clipper X and Fastrac

In my opinion

In terms of who else will get crewed access to space: I think they'll buy seats on commercial providers. There just isn't a justification for designing your own hsf vehicle now when you can buy one from Boeing, SpaceX, or Sierra Nevada.

ESA has the reentry vehicle tech with ARD, the service module tech and docking tech with ATV, as well as all the lessons learned from Hermes. They could have a manned program quickly if they had a need, the will and the money, but there just hasn't been a point. In any case Orion will be using an ESA service module, so the argument could be made Europe will have the next space agency to send humans to space, since it will be a shared program.

Japan could also develop its tech from HTV experience, as well as from its experimental RTV craft, and the HopeX program into something quickly, but like India, this would just be a prestige program A vehicle with nowhere to go.

 

[arch101]

India seems the only nation interested in a federal effort to follow China, Russia and the US. I'm fully expecting that after SpaceX and Bezos start flying crews, that you will see other private companies from all over the world follow suit. I think we are at the precipice of a private space travel era that will relegate government efforts to regulatory agencies like the FAA.

 

[XCV330]

BTW, Virgin Galactic hit 82.7km on flight of VSS Unity this morning in Mojave.
FAA is awarding both the crew their commercial astronaut wings

 

[Asbo Zaprudder]

Yawn. Wake me when a Branson vomit comet achieves orbit.

 

[tavor]

thought space was 100 km read it somewhere cant remember where now, i may be wrong
so if above correct astronaut wings should be above 100 km no?

 

[publiusr]

Actually they are thinking about lowering it. Call it "the Branson line"
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0094576518308221

Mercury Redstone was more a true spacecraft to my mind

 

[XCV330]

thought space was 100 km read it somewhere cant remember where now, i may be wrong
so if above correct astronaut wings should be above 100 km no?

FAI calls it 100km. USA calls it 50miles. It's an arbitrary difference between two arbitrary definitions.

Yawn. Wake me when a Branson vomit comet achieves orbit.

It's the first commercial spacecraft to put people above 50 miles altitude since 2004. Yawn if you like. I'm happy about it. It's something. And if it starts to promote space tourism, then people will get used to paying for 10 minutes of weightlessness. They'll want to spend more for 2 weeks of orbit time next.