Human Demography in Science Fiction

[Mistral]

Unlike serious discussion of 20% lightspeed propulsion, which is totally sober.

Not completely unbelievable.

Not as impossible as FTL, but there's no reason based on what we know to expect it to happen - rough analogies to the contrary. We have made no engineering progress toward such a thing, for the very good reason that it serves no purpose to anyone sufficient to make even the beginnings of the effort reasonable.

Actually, JPL has been working on an ion drive since the 7os.
The idea is to make trips to resource-rich asteroids a fairly short voyage. Due to launch window considerations, the need to maximize the time spent mining said resources is critical.

 

[ProtoAvatar]

Unlike serious discussion of 20% lightspeed propulsion, which is totally sober.

With fusion engines, acceleration to 10% light speed and deceleration to 0 is feasible - both technologically and economically.

10% light speed translates into ~43 years travel time to Alpha Centauri, and similar travel times from Alpha Centauri to its nearest stars, etc.

 

[Gaith]

Unlike serious discussion of 20% lightspeed propulsion, which is totally sober.

With fusion engines, acceleration to 10% light speed and deceleration to 0 is feasible - both technologically and economically.

10% light speed translates into ~43 years travel time to Alpha Centauri, and similar travel times from Alpha Centauri to its nearest stars, etc.

Understanding the gist of another poster

UR DOING IT WRONG

 

[ProtoAvatar]

Gaith, talking about 0.1c speed is 'totally sobeer' - we have the information (scientific) to make accurate calculations.

Which is why your equating this to predicting the future 50 years down the line (which is wild guess work) is fallacious.

Understanding the gist of another poster

UR DOING IT WRONG

A statement more aptly addressed to yourself.

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Not completely unbelievable.

Not as impossible as FTL, but there's no reason based on what we know to expect it to happen - rough analogies to the contrary. We have made no engineering progress toward such a thing, for the very good reason that it serves no purpose to anyone sufficient to make even the beginnings of the effort reasonable.

Actually, JPL has been working on an ion drive since the 7os.

Alchemists have been working on the lead-to-gold thing much longer. So, when is the first test of an ion drive safely pushing a living payload at some significant fraction of the speed of light scheduled?

A week after the American colony on Mars becomes self-sustaining, maybe?

 

[Gaith]

Alchemists have been working on the lead-to-gold thing much longer. So, when is the first test of an ion drive safely pushing a living payload at some significant fraction of the speed of light scheduled?

A week after the American colony on Mars becomes self-sustaining, maybe?

Dude, why be a wet blanket? ProtoAvatar says that this yet-to-be invented technology is "economically feasible" (for whatever fiscal forecast its readiness might face), and isn't his mere word good enough for anyone?

 

[Switch]

I still think someone should make a go of that Project Orion business. Just for the sheer lunacy of it.

 

[ProtoAvatar]

Dude, why be a wet blanket? ProtoAvatar says that this yet-to-be invented technology is "economically feasible" (for whatever fiscal forecast its readiness might face), and isn't his mere word good enough for anyone?

I already told you, Gaith:
"Understanding the gist of another poster

UR DOING IT WRONG "

'Economically feasible' means it can be done without engineering/energy on an impractically large scale (as would be Jupiter-sized fuel tanks, etc).

 

[Mistral]

Not as impossible as FTL, but there's no reason based on what we know to expect it to happen - rough analogies to the contrary. We have made no engineering progress toward such a thing, for the very good reason that it serves no purpose to anyone sufficient to make even the beginnings of the effort reasonable.

Actually, JPL has been working on an ion drive since the 7os.

Alchemists have been working on the lead-to-gold thing much longer. So, when is the first test of an ion drive safely pushing a living payload at some significant fraction of the speed of light scheduled?

A week after the American colony on Mars becomes self-sustaining, maybe?

Good ol' Dennis-if a negative aspect can be found/exploited you can count on him.

I don't know, Dennis. When will we have fusion generators-I suspect that is the big stumbling block.

 

[Mistral]

I still think someone should make a go of that Project Orion business. Just for the sheer lunacy of it.

Missed this-didn't mean to double post but Orion will never get off the ground.

"Radiation" is a boogeyman of the first order in civilized countries that will not be overcome in our lifetime. Shame-the engineering calculations have already been done.....

 

[Switch]

I guess we'll just have to leave it to China then.

 

[psikeyhackr]

I think any projections beyond 50 years are just so much pseudo-intellectual bullshit.

Unlike serious discussion of 20% lightspeed propulsion, which is totally sober.

Sorry, I should have said POPULATION projections.

That involves the behavior of hundreds of millions of people. But scientific and technological changes are usually the result of a very small number of people, but far more interesting.

But with billions of people and technology capable of wrecking the planet this century presents us with possibilities like none before. Our nitwit economists can't even discuss planned obsolescence.

psik

 

[Switch]

I think any projections beyond 50 years are just so much pseudo-intellectual bullshit.

Unlike serious discussion of 20% lightspeed propulsion, which is totally sober.

Sorry, I should have said POPULATION projections.

That involves the behavior of hundreds of millions of people.

That's what makes it possible: individual variation is removed from the equation. Predicting whether or not a randomly selected individual is going to die over the next year? Difficult. Predicting within a small margin of error how many people are going to die over the next year? Easy.