How much $$$

[RobertScorpio]

Based on the box office amounts of modern movies, how much do you think TREK XI is going to have to make to warrent Paramount to green light another another movie? If the movie is going to cost like $160 million to make, or so we have been told, then the usual Trek box office of the past isn't going to do. This movie is going to have to do at least $300 million domestic, and I mean at least that much, to really be considered a hit..another $300-400 international and we are talking, I think, $700 total box office..

But the problem? Trek movies don't usually do well over seas. Can they make this? What are you expectations??

Rob
Scorpio

 

[Bill Morris]

How much will it bring in?

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Of course this movie has to make a lot more than the old ones. The entire production has been premised on reaching a great many more moviegoers than the previous ones and therefore making a lot more money.

The real cost of the thing right now is probably more in the 130 million dollar range. In any event, it'll need to do well over 200 million domestically - ideally at least 300 million.

It may not reach the upper number - "Iron Man" may in the next week or two, and that's probably a more accessible movie than Trek.

 

[Haytil]

It needs to do two things:

-Make a profit
-Raise a lot of interest and buzz

It doesn't have to be a stellar profit or anything. This is a reboot, and if they're smart, they'll recognize that people are going to be reluctant to see it initially. But if there's a lot of interest in a sequel from the audience - even if it isn't reflected in the initial box office numbers - they'll know that. So as long as it made a profit, however small, it'll justify a sequel. Plus, a lot of the costs are one-time and won't need to be spent again for a sequel - things like sets and preliminary production design.

Just like "Batman Begins" - a reboot that was made for $150 million, and only made $200 million domestically. It wasn't in the $300-400 million range, but they know people loved it and wanted more. And now "The Dark Knight" is being made with a budget of $180 million and is easily one of the most anticipated movies of the past year or two.

 

[Borgminister]

Just like "Batman Begins" - a reboot that was made for $150 million, and only made $200 million domestically. It wasn't in the $300-400 million range, but they know people loved it and wanted more. And now "The Dark Knight" is being made with a budget of $180 million and is easily one of the most anticipated movies of the past year or two.

I really hope that's the way it works out.

 

[T'Leisha]

In this regard, i am really concerned for this movie. Like its been said, people are going to be reluctant to go see it- Some trek fans are going to be reluctant to see it, never mind mainstream moviegoers. Personally i think think the movie will be amazing, but it needs for many more people to want to see it. In that light, i think the curiosity of fans and non-fans alike will give this movie a boost and help it raise the most cash.

 

[RobertScorpio]

Of course this movie has to make a lot more than the old ones. The entire production has been premised on reaching a great many more moviegoers than the previous ones and therefore making a lot more money.

The real cost of the thing right now is probably more in the 130 million dollar range. In any event, it'll need to do well over 200 million domestically - ideally at least 300 million.

It may not reach the upper number - "Iron Man" may in the next week or two, and that's probably a more accessible movie than Trek.

I think you nailed it pretty good Polaris. If it can do that same number overseas, which has been the trend now for the past eight years or so, then it might crack the $500 total box office (USA and INTERNATIONAL)...but if it just brings in $300 million total? That, I think, would not be good...what do you think?

Rob
Scorpio

 

[Lumen]

$200-225 million domestic is the best case scenario for a Trek film, IMO. $300 million domestic grosses these days come from rare hits, sequels, and familiar brands. It'll probably do a little less outside the US, but I think $350 million worldwide is probably the most optimistic prediction anyone could make right now.

And that's really optimistic, assuming Abrams can line up his ducks. The movie could just as easily bomb, but I hope that doesn't happen.

 

[RobertScorpio]

$200-225 million domestic is the best case scenario for a Trek film, IMO. $300 million domestic grosses these days come from rare hits, sequels, and familiar brands. It'll probably do a little less outside the US, but I think $350 million worldwide is probably the most optimistic prediction anyone could make right now.

And that's really optimistic, assuming Abrams can line up his ducks. The movie could just as easily bomb, but I hope that doesn't happen.

I think you have it right too. I so much want this to be a hit, even though I think it is a big risk. Do you know what I keep imaging though? Lost In Space. That movie had so much hype, good cast too, and then it came out and, well, got lost for good...I hope TREK XI avoids that kind of fall.

Rob
Scorpio

 

[chancellorjake]

If the movie is promoted well, to a large market, then it could easily make a lot of money. They need to make this movie appeal to Joe and Flo Blow and their kids. I really hope that the ad campaign begins with the Super Bowl. Regular movie-goers should cheer when they see the full trailer.

 

[PowderedToastMan]

this movie does not need $700 to be considered a hit, more like $400+ worldwide. Essentially the same kind of money as Batman Begins and Superman Returns

 

[photon70]

How much will it make?

We can look at it from a historical as well as realistic case.

Adjusted for current ticket prices, TMP and TWoK would both gross more than $200 million today.

So with the franchise at its 'height', a Star Trek movie can pull in $200 million.

What about May 2009?

I'd wager $175 million at the North American box office.

Internationally, the best was 1st Contact in 1996 with about $50 million.

Approximately $75 million today.

Best guess: $175 million + $75 million = $250 million total box office.

Both would be setting Star Trek box office records but due to high price tag, might prove to be financially luke warm.

I hope we won't have to wait another 7 years for a new Star Trek movie.

My biggest gripe is Paramount goes from under funding every Star Trek movie since TMP and suddenly pony up so much that the franchise will be proven to be a dissapointment if it doesn't take $500 million globally, something no Star Trek picture can do easily.

An extra $10 million for each of the movies since TMP would have been much better guys.

Cheers

photon70

 

[Jackson_Roykirk]

As you alluded to in the OP, I think the "international" box office take will be the difference maker if this film is to be considered a major hit.

Most American big budget films do about 40% domestic U.S. ticket sales and 60% international. Star Trek films have historically made around 2/3 of it's money domestically and 1/3 "overseas". I bet Abrams and Paramount are going to try very hard to push this film on the international market. They are already trying to make it more "world friendly" by casting someone like Simon Pegg, who will help to bring in the U.K. male audience (and some U.K. females), and Karl Urban and Eric Bana who will help attract the Australian Audience. I'm sure they will also do a lot of international advertising, and make the cast accessible to the European and Autralian media in the weeks leading up to the film's release.

I think they would be happy if this film's split was 45% U.S. domestic and 55% international.

 

[Franklin]

Of course this movie has to make a lot more than the old ones. The entire production has been premised on reaching a great many more moviegoers than the previous ones and therefore making a lot more money.

The real cost of the thing right now is probably more in the 130 million dollar range. In any event, it'll need to do well over 200 million domestically - ideally at least 300 million.

It may not reach the upper number - "Iron Man" may in the next week or two, and that's probably a more accessible movie than Trek.

You raise a good point. I think the other Trek movies were probably budgeted with a definite fan base and modest maximum box office in mind. No all-out attempt was made to market the movies to the mass movie-going public. I don't think a Trek movie (maybe TMP) was ever a "tentpole" movie for Paramount, either (correct me if I'm wrong).
When TVH became a broad (audience) success, they responded by giving TFF such a low budget and production values that any non-fan who liked TVH probably stayed away because the movie was panned, or thought, "WTF is this?" if he went. Too bad for the franchise.

As I've posted before, unless XI stinks like gym socks, I think we'll be surprised by just how well it does at the box office. I don't see $300 million domestically as out of the question. And, as Jackson Roykirk pointed out, this movie will get far more international marketing by Paramount than any of the other Trek movies, so it'll probably have a much higher international gross, too. Maybe it's just the optimist in me (silly optimist), but Abrams could be sitting on something quite big.

 

[Therin of Andor]

Both would be setting Star Trek box office records but due to high price tag, might prove to be financially luke warm.
I hope we won't have to wait another 7 years for a new Star Trek movie.

The other major difference, though: movies come out on DVD so much faster than they did on VHS decades ago. Even a relative flop of a movie can get back its box office losses on a well-marketed DVD release.

 

[Sharr Khan]

people are going to be reluctant to go see it- Some trek fans are going to be reluctant to see it,

This assumption pervades this board, we don't have that much power - if we did, this film would be the adventures of The Titan/DS9 Crew seeking out The Emissary to save the universe, instead its a total departure from anything remotely like that.

I'd take you equation and invert, then you'll have the true value of what regular joes think about Trek fans opinion of such. What will bring them to the seats is a well targeted marketing structure and a cool trailer with some form of hook in it.

Also that that the movie has a sense of an edge to it might help.

Sharr

Sharr

 

[Therin of Andor]

This assumption pervades this board, we don't have that much power - if we did, this film would be the adventures of The Titan/DS9 Crew seeking out The Emissary to save the universe, instead its a total departure from anything remotely like that.

Similarly, some fans of the Christopher Reeve "Superman" films were expected to "refuse" to show any loyalty, or even curiosity, to "Superman Returns", but the film appealed to sufficient critics, fans, regular cinema patrons and studio honchos that a sequel has been announced.

 

[RobertScorpio]

This assumption pervades this board, we don't have that much power - if we did, this film would be the adventures of The Titan/DS9 Crew seeking out The Emissary to save the universe, instead its a total departure from anything remotely like that.

Similarly, some fans of the Christopher Reeve "Superman" films were expected to "refuse" to show any loyalty, or even curiosity, to "Superman Returns", but the film appealed to sufficient critics, fans, regular cinema patrons and studio honchos that a sequel has been announced.

i actually liked SUPERMAN RETURNS alot...but the general feeling I get out there is that the movie wasn't a big winner among general fans..and it only barely got green lit for another one....the second Superman movie better do better. (I think if it uses ZOD again, as rumored, it will suck...they need something NEW something more hip...Brainiac or Darkseid would fit the bill!) But another Lex Luthor centered movie will not do much for me

Rob

 

[Sharr Khan]

This assumption pervades this board, we don't have that much power - if we did, this film would be the adventures of The Titan/DS9 Crew seeking out The Emissary to save the universe, instead its a total departure from anything remotely like that.

Similarly, some fans of the Christopher Reeve "Superman" films were expected to "refuse" to show any loyalty, or even curiosity, to "Superman Returns", but the film appealed to sufficient critics, fans, regular cinema patrons and studio honchos that a sequel has been announced.

Superman is actually a really good example in that it as a property has been rebooted dozens of times over and over to varying degrees of success and acclaim. Trek can only hope to be that malleable a property.

Trek fans will be asked their thoughts on this movie to be sure, but it will be incidental to how the general audience perceives this production, an after thought.

Every other movie doesn't have a fanbase to look to for an opinion on if a consumer wants to go see it or not. The vibe I've gotten so far is that Abrams & Paramount are proceeding from the assumption they need to behave as if there are not yet any "Star Trek Fans", and that they need to make a hit to establish a fanbase. Its the only way they'll sell the picture and endow it with a sense of freshness.

Sharr

 

[NiteTrek]

I think it's going to be the most money making Trek film to date. The main reason is the curiosity factor, all Trek fans are going to be curious to see how this re-imagining is going to play out.

Also, it will draw in new, young fans. Nimoy was blown away by the production, he even said he doesn't see how Trek could go back to TV after this. That means that the ships, sets, special effects are probably far beyond what's ever been done in Trek and the younger generation loves special effects.

Of course the biggest unknown is going to be the story line. I'm not thrilled by yet another time travel story (if the rumors are true) so we'll just have to see how well it holds up. I always envisioned a dying Spock surrounded by his grandchildren who ask him about his life in Starfleet and in a series of flashbacks, tells the story of how he started out in the Academy, being assigned to the Enterprise, serving with Pike and later Kirk. There would have to be some type of incredible first mission, one that we haven't seen yet.

The end of the movie would show the new actors on the bridge of the Enterprise, setting course for their newest mission. Fast forward to Spock and his grandchildren, where Spock finally dies with a smile on his face, hinting at his final acceptance at being half human.