How Bad Do You Think The Economy Is?

[The Boy Who Cried Worf]

I have been hit particularily hard by this recession in terms of really long term unemployment. I came to the job market late so I only have two other job hunting experiences to judge it by. First around 1999-2000 when it seemed like they were giving jobs away. The second around 2003 when pickings were much slimmer, but companies were still hiring so when I started actively knocking on a few doors it didn't take that long to get a job. But right now I can't even get people to acknowledge me. From my point of view right now seems like an abysmal time.

What about you guys? Judging by you, your family, and friends, is this really one of the worst times we've seen or is a lot of it hype in the Internet age. Especially those of you who were around for the recession of 82 and the malaise of the 70's. Was it this bad? Worse? Better? For awhile people were saying the 82 recession was worse, but the length of this one seems to have put it in the lead. Does it seem like this is just a tough time and it will be over soon or does it seem like the economy has really taken a structural hit and it will take major change to revive it?

 

[Lord Garth]

I went through newspaper archives from 1985 and there were pages and pages of job opportunities. Lots of "Help Wanted".

From what I remember in 2004-2006, when I was job searching, there were still a fair number of job opportunities. My problem during those years was that I was looking for a particular job in a paticular field but I couldn't get the job because I didn't have experience and I couldn't get experience because no one would give me a job. The chicken and the egg. But, personal problems aside, there were still job opportunities.

This past summer, I was looking into moving on, and when I opened up the newspaper, there was maybe a quarter of a page of job opportunities normally. One day there were only five jobs listed. Five. The job search on the Internet isn't much better. Jobs are few between in type and location.

Stores are closing left and right in malls and a lot of people at the condominium I live in are laid off and are having a hard time making payments. At our last meeting, I found out that 11 of the condos were delinquent in their payments.

It's not hype. The economy really is That Bad.

 

[RoJoHen]

Some places definitely got hit harder than others. I really didn't notice much of a change around my area. In fact, it seemed like the economy was still booming around here. While reports of unemployment were all over the news, I kept seeing lots of new businesses being built. There really is no lack for jobs around here.

Now, I work in a restaurant, and I have seen a decrease in customers, but part of me wonders if the economy is actually that bad or if people around here are just giving into the hype.

 

[All Seeing Eye]

It's pretty bad right now, I've ended up maxing out mine and my wifes credit cards during this economic downturn because we were hit with all sorts of problems but luckily I'm on the way to paying it all off and when it's paid off only saving from me from now on!!
The Mrs would like a new job but there's absolutely nothing going around here AT ALL. She's been looking for 6 months now and found zero.

 

[Robert Maxwell]

I think if you're just coming out of high school or college and have no experience, you're gonna be seriously screwed in this recession. Or if you only have a little experience, but not several years' worth. I interviewed for quite a few jobs in my field, and the employers were very, very picky. They can afford to be right now. I mean, I had job I was totally qualified for, but they didn't hire me because I "use Windows too much." As if I have never used Linux or a Mac, or couldn't pick them up easily.

However, I recall much the same thing going on back in the 2001 recession. Every recession is like that. There are jobs out there, but when employers have hundreds of people applying for a handful of positions, you better believe they're incredibly choosy. I have one friend who has been out of work for over a year, mostly because she only has six months of work experience and a technical writing degree. Nobody wants to take a chance on someone with a degree but little to no work history. They want someone they can drop right into the job with as little training as possible.

Basically, unless you have a kickass resume, it's going to be tough to find a job--and even if you do, it's no guarantee. Most of the people who were laid off with me in December still don't have jobs, and most of them are a lot more experienced than I am. In this climate, many places don't want someone who is too experienced, either--money's tight, and that experience costs money. So, they want someone with enough experience to do the job right away, but not so much that they're going to demand a high salary.

Like I said, good times for employers who are looking to hire.

As far as my friends and family go, just about everyone I know has either lost a job or is in danger of losing it in the near future. Some of them have found new jobs. Those who have gotten new jobs have typically had to take pay cuts or get a less prestigious job than they had before, just to get by. Many of them haven't found anything, though.

About a year and a half ago, my wife and I went to buy a house on contract from the couple that owned it. We haven't gotten a mortgage yet but I suspect they are pretty happy with the current arrangement, given that they'd have a hard time selling it outright in the current market. They get payments that exceed what they're paying for their mortgage, and we take care of all the repairs around the house, too, since we're buying it. Just trying to sort out the whole mortgage thing, which is a bit tricky these days but it's doable.

This is definitely the worst economic period I have direct experience of, but I'm only 28, so what do I really have to compare it with? I only really remember the '01 recession, which got bad in a hurry and then "recovered" without a lot of jobs coming back. Things definitely didn't return to a 1990's level, except in housing, but we all know now that was just a huge house of cards.

 

[FPAlpha]

It is bad.. several well educated friends with good jobs are either on reduced work time (legal precursor to outright firing of the employee) to letting projects finish without prospect of new ones for freelancers.

In previous years it was nearly unheard of in our discussions to turn to the economy and our job situation much.. a simple "How's it going at the job?" "Good..." was mostly the standard.
Now we talk about it far more frequently and indepth.. times have changed.

I'm in a somewhat lucky situation... after a long unemployment in 2007 i got work again in late 07 as a temp and was then hired by the company. Apparently i did my job well because i got good reviews and have been on a project in a different country for three months before returning to have my contract renewed and inofficial talk about me becoming teamleader of my new department.

However in general our workload has dropped sharply on average.. we are at about 50% of last years work volume and many temp workers have been let go as well as some whose contracts were not renewed (good people.. just unlucky to draw the short stick).

Last week we had a big meeting of all teamleaders and our bosses where we had to determine 5 other people to be temporarily transferred to our main warehouse hoping that work will pick up and we can take them back.
It is a shitty situation to have to look into the face of a person you know will be gone and can't tell them because of orders from above.

I don't believe 2009 will see any major upswing.. it will remain at a rather low level with maybe slight improvement. 2010 will be interesting.. i hope the improvement will continue steadily but it will be several years before we are at 07/08 economic levels.

 

[judge alba]

we've been lucky in our household we've both got jobs a roof over our head and if we do need a helping hand the other halfs family chip in though i try not to do that like to stand on y own two feet

 

[The Grim Ghost]

I guess this is a kind of ego-centric way to look at the world..but it didn't really hit me until today that things are really as bad as people have been saying.

I found out I'm in danger of getting laid off and it is directly because of the housing market (I help renovate old houses to be sold or rented). This is the first time in my life something about politics/the economy has REALLY affected me personally.

 

[sidious618]

I think it's bad but I don't think it'll last as long as some people are projecting.

 

[tharpdevenport]

When I moved here in 2000, it only took a couple months to get a job, and there were jobs everywhere.

Cut to this year and there were BARELY any jobs to be had. Jobs used to dry up around September, but about mid July they started vanishing from the news paper and online sites.

Where as years ago you could find business names and telephone numbers, these days they don't give any info out, and often Googling the phone number doesn't lead to a business name. "Fax resume only", "no walk-ins", "no calls" ... I've only seen one, maybe two employers face-to-face in the last half year. They just don't want to see you anymore, talk to you, or give you enough information to figure out who they are so you can't come over there or call.

Litterally, not figuratively, there have been jobs here where over 100 people are waiting ... for one or two positions.

Lady at a local employment agency said she's never seen it so bad, and she's lived here longer than me.

A local business I worked at for about a year cleaning, was firing people left & right; people there 12 years, 16 years, 21 years (these are not made up example, but actualy lengths of employment of people fired). Heck, even the daughter of a fellow cleaning lady, who worked for the place we were cleaning, got fired. They even brought in people from overseas countries like Russia and India, teaching them how to do the job, and working on the computers. Of course they didn't tell anybody they were going to outsource.

And on top of the lack of jobs, this shitty economy has also brought even worse pay than previously before.

A rigerous cleaning jobs posted here a few days ago that wanted you to even paint walls and deep clean carpets ... a job that would normally earn you something like $10.00 an hour ( a proper wage for the position), was offering $7.25 an hour -- a new fuckng low for my town.


There's no way for the economy to recover enough to sustain itself the way it's going and building, especially not with the amount of people. The population is too large. It'll get better, sure, but never enough to cover the million+ unemployed, and you can't have a country with over a million people who can't get by, and you certain don't want a government tit that big feeding everybody (though it's clear from some posting here in TNZ, some of you LOVE the government tit).

 

[Robert Maxwell]

I think it's bad but I don't think it'll last as long as some people are projecting.

Yeah, it's turning around, but jobs are always the last thing to rebound in a recession, unfortunately.

That's been mitigated somewhat by programs like CARS but on the whole, unemployment will continue to be high for probably the next year or so. Hopefully no longer than that.

Good points, FPAlpha. I remember almost never hearing about my friends' jobs. They were working and I was working and that's all there was to it. Now, I just keep waiting to hear who's gonna lose their job next.

 

[TheBrew]

some of you LOVE the government tit).

What can I say, I like boobs.

 

[Commander Rabbit]

Especially those of you who were around for the recession of 82 and the malaise of the 70's. Was it this bad? Worse? Better?

In my experience, this is definitely the worst. I'm about to become unemployed at the end of October. Not looking forward to seeking employment a few months shy of 60.

 

[Holdfast]

Recessions are pretty good, provided you can keep your job/income stream or have a house and/or income from the market.

This is a definitely a great recession in that regard - ultra-low interest rates so mortgages are basically free, stock market valuations recovering strongly after their initial catastophic collapse so dividend income didn't completely collapse, signs of recovery in the housing market, heavy discounting in shops keeping cost of living under control, likelihood of a slow/bumpy recovery keeping monetary policy loose for a year or two to come, then the promise of some inflation to erode remaining mortgage value afterwards, etc, etc. There are worse situations to be in, for sure.

Of course, none of that's a consolation if you're one of the unlucky ones out of a job or your income stream is significantly affected. But it's a much nicer recession than it threatened to be this time last year when Lehman Brothers went bust and cascade failure of the entire banking/capitalist system was actually a possibility.

 

[Leroy]

Did the stimulus and bailouts help? or were they just a waste of time and money?

 

[TGTheodore]

I think this is the worst shape we've been in since the Great Depression.

Even after the dot-com bust, housing still stayed high (which we now know was one of the primary reasons for where we are now).

It will take YEARS to recover from the Idiot from Texas and his Cronies.

Many more people are directly hurting and to a much deeper degree than during any of the post-Vietnam recessions.

--Ted

 

[Squiggy]

Did the stimulus and bailouts help? or were they just a waste of time and money?

The bank bailouts helped as the finacial markets stabailzed and the government is now seeing a profit from the loans.

The auto bailout? Meh...no so much. The CARS program helped more than anything. I think they should've done that in the spring but it is what is is.

As for the stimulus, still too early to tell not all of the money has been spent...I don't even think half if it's spent. But unemployment is beginning to flatten out and the August jobs cut report was smaller than expected and about 60 or 70k jobs less than the July cut.

Again, too early to tell if we can see the light at the end of the tunnel.

 

[Ward Fowler]

It will take YEARS to recover from the Idiot from Texas and his Cronies.

To be fair, Greenspan and the Fed created the real estate/commodity bubble, not Bush. What Bush did was bankrupt the government through a trillion dollar tax cut given mostly to the wealthy and an illegal war for which we didn't have the money and manpower to fight or win.

The auto bailout? Meh...no so much.

The bad thing about the auto bailout is that while we may have saved GM, we didn't save many American jobs. Lots of people were still laid off. Meanwhile, GM is building a huge auto plant in Mexico. Essentially U.S. tax payers are paying to outsource their own jobs. The labor unions should have used their muscle and forced Democrats to put provisions into the bailout that would have kept that from happening.

 

[royalfan5]

One of the nice things about being in Agribusiness is the that production is going to roll on irregardless of the outside stuff, and grain will have to be marketed. So as long as we don't collaspe to the point where we move to a strictly barter based economy, I feel pretty confident.

 

[Similitude]

I got laid off in February and I still haven't been able to find Employment. It is rough out there.