I'm merely a layperson with a strong interest in science and rational thinking, but I think you're looking in the wrong places for answers. You wouldn't choose between a witch doctor, or a snake oil salesman, to provide you with medical advice. In that same vein, neither the Koch Brothers through their various paid media outlets, nor the Vatican and its foundation of religious tradition and checkered past, are reputable bastions of scientific research.
According to
Science Daily:
Science Daily said:
Zharkova and her colleagues derived their model using a technique called 'principal component analysis' of the magnetic field observations from the Wilcox Solar Observatory in California. They examined three solar cycles-worth of magnetic field activity, covering the period from 1976-2008. In addition, they compared their predictions to average sunspot numbers, another strong marker of solar activity. All the predictions and observations were closely matched.
Looking ahead to the next solar cycles, the model predicts that the pair of waves become increasingly offset during Cycle 25, which peaks in 2022. During Cycle 26, which covers the decade from 2030-2040, the two waves will become exactly out of synch and this will cause a significant reduction in solar activity.
"In cycle 26, the two waves exactly mirror each other -- peaking at the same time but in opposite hemispheres of the Sun. Their interaction will be disruptive, or they will nearly cancel each other. We predict that this will lead to the properties of a 'Maunder minimum'," said Zharkova. "Effectively, when the waves are approximately in phase, they can show strong interaction, or resonance, and we have strong solar activity. When they are out of phase, we have solar minimums. When there is full phase separation, we have the conditions last seen during the Maunder minimum, 370 years ago."
For those who don't know, the Maunder minimum was another instance where the Sun's solar activity decreased. It occurred during the 1640s, and resulted in a miniature ice age:
Wikipedia said:
Note that the term "Little Ice Age" applied to the Maunder minimum is something of a misnomer as it implies a period of unremitting cold (and on a global scale), which is not the case. For example, the coldest winter in the
Central England Temperature record is 1683-4, but the winter just 2 years later (both in the middle of the Maunder minimum) was the fifth warmest in the whole 350-year CET record. Furthermore, summers during the Maunder minimum were not significantly different to those seen in subsequent years. The drop in global average temperatures in paleoclimate reconstructions at the start of the Little Ice Age was between about 1560 and 1600, whereas the Maunder minimum began almost 50 years later.
In short, if you're expecting
Day After Tomorrow conditions, expect to be disappointed.
Now, all of that aside, you asked about the global climate and decreased solar activity. Well, let NASA explain it for me, because they're good with sciency words that are actual science:
NASA.Gov said:
It's reasonable to assume that changes in the sun's energy output would cause the climate to change, since the sun is the fundamental source of energy that drives our climate system.
Indeed, studies show that solar variability has played a role in past climate changes. For example, a decrease in solar activity is thought to have triggered the Little Ice Age between approximately 1650 and 1850, when Greenland was largely cut off by ice from 1410 to the 1720s and glaciers advanced in the Alps.
But several lines of evidence show that current global warming cannot be explained by changes in energy from the sun:
- Since 1750, the average amount of energy coming from the sun either remained constant or increased slightly.
- If the warming were caused by a more active sun, then scientists would expect to see warmer temperatures in all layers of the atmosphere. Instead, they have observed a cooling in the upper atmosphere, and a warming at the surface and in the lower parts of the atmosphere. That's because greenhouse gasses are trapping heat in the lower atmosphere.
Climate models that include solar irradiance changes can’t reproduce the observed temperature trend over the past century or more without including a rise in greenhouse gases
In short, the earth is still getting warmer, and even after our "mini ice age", would continue to get warmer, because the rise in global temperatures are due to our own Greenhouse Effect, and not the solar output of the Sun.
In short, to answer your questions:
1) No, do not believe headlines that draw conclusions without presenting solid evidence, and especially be wary of sites with an agenda, such as any politically driven media outlet.
2) There have been headlines about this coming solar decrease for years. This is not the first it has been discussed, or reported upon.
3) See 1 & 2.
Most importantly, think critically. Don't just accept something that is stated by a newspaper, or reporter on the news, look for the evidence. Check the data. Read peer reviewed science journals, and see what the scientific community is saying on the subject. Don't fall for conspiracy theories, or sensationalist headlines because they sound good.
I hope this helps answer your questions.
