Yes, that's exact what I believe, and this is why.Do you really believe that the Son'a would've shared the benefits of the process with the Federation or the Baku forthat matter?
The Sona must have been the ones to have approached the Federation Council, and not the other way around. The Federation considered the planet to be theirs. If the Sona simply moved the Baku and harvested the particle all by themselves, and the Federation found out about it, the Federation would be pissed about the theft of their natural resources and would have gone to the Sona for satisfaction. The Sona didn't want long range problems.
In other words, the Sona were scared of Starfleet.
Even with everything that happen in the movie, the Sona would have kept whatever they previously negotiated (one percent?), and the rest would have gone to the Federation. Given that the Holoship was of Federation design, and not Sona, when the dust settled the Federation would have had "custody" of the Baku. The Baku would have had the same access to the particles as the rest of the people in the Federation.
immediate need for new medical breakthroughs. Only a huge war going on.

Ru'afo claimed the Federation was old and weak since it was always fending off attacks from the likes of the Klingons, Borg and now the Dominion. Plus he killed Dougherty and ordered an attack on the Enterprise, I don't think they had any great fear of Starfleet.