Could this be how Friendship One travelled 30,000 ly's?

[Deks]

VOY Episode 'Friendship One' got stuck on my mind for a bit and I've been trying to rack my brains on how the probe could travel such distances for that amount of time given Warp drive limitations, etc.

So, here's my explanation:

Given what we saw in Enterprise, Friendship One might be capable of reaching what... Warp 1 perhaps initially after its launch 4 years after FC with the Vulcans?

To be fair, without life support or a crew aboard, the probe could probably operate for LONG periods without stopping, but logisics wise, the Warp speed would be too low to allow it to cross 30,000 Lightyears in about 180 years since it was launched).

I never bought the idea that Warp 1 was equivalent of Light speed, because Warp is described as 'Faster than light'... it would have to be at least 1.5 or possibly 2x the speed of light to matter and suit the definition of 'FTL'.

But even if we stick to Warp 1 = 1c (Which I find unlikely), then it doesn't alter the numbers by much and still leaves the probe WITHIN 30,000 Ly's of Earth by the end anyway (according to my calculations).

Plus, Janeway says that 'SF lost contact with the probe 130 years ago' (from her perspective). Since this episode occurs in the 7th year of VOY journey but it would still be just a bit longer than 6 years Voy has been in the DQ, it stands to reason its 2377 when VOY got this mission to retrieve it.
If we subtract 130 years from that, we arrive at year 2247 when SF lost contact).

We know Warp 4.5 was made possible as a cruising speed by 2151 on the NX-01 which allowed only 100x c at the time.
Since SF didn't have many/any deep space ships in the time between the launch of the probe and by the time NX-01 was launched (except the freighters which were only capable of Warp 1.5 - its unlikely the freighters would have been anywhere near the probe to lend a hand and SF wasn't formed until LATER), then its possible that until and after SF was formed, Earth asked the Vulcans to check up on the probe and refuel it on a regular basis (but not upgrade it - because the Vulcans wouldn't do that at the time).

At the time, we could maybe assume the probe might be able to sustain its operations every 2.5 years before needing refuelling?

If the NX-01 intercepted the probe, upgraded its systems and improved its AM storage etc. sometime in the mid 22nd century (say by 2152), it would have travelled around 170 Lightyears in the first 85 years since its original launch (assuming it was travelling at 2x c - which would be Warp 1 under my stated assumption).

If this happened, then the the probe would now be capable of sustaining approximately Warp 4.5 allowing it to cross about 100 LY's every year and only needing refuelling once every 10 years (since ships are designed to operate for 5 years, and the probe didn't have creature comforts and was designed to operate for long periods... I don't think this extension is unlikely).

So, until we get to 2163 (post UFP foundation and sharing of technology- which might happen even BEFORE the UFP foundation), Warp 7 would be a feasibility for starships... but the Friendship Probe could be intercepted again, refuelled and upgraded to this level since its a probe.

This means that from 2151 to 2163, the probe would be able to cross another 1,080 lightyears, or a total of 1,250 lightyears crossed by 2163.

If SF intercepted it in 2163 and upgraded its Warp systems etc. to about Warp 6.5 or Warp 7 specs, that on TNG scale might push it to about 250 times light speed (maybe).

Since we know from First Contact movie that UFP stretches 8,000 ly's, its likely that by the early 23rd century, it didn't extend that far, but SHIPS may have travelled that distance and explored it (possibly even further)- intercepting and refuelling the probe en route until about 2203 (40 years after UFP was formed) - by this point at 250 odd times the speed of light, the probe would have travelled another 10,000 Ly's (or about 11,250 light years in total).

So, if the Probe was intercepted in 2203 one last time and Warp drive was improved by a decent amount, its feasible the probe could have attained even bigger Warp speeds than Warp 6 on TNG scale... potentially even Warp 7 (which would be about 656 times speed of light).

Now, to cross the remaining 18,750 ly's... the probe would need to sustain a speed of about 426x C for the next 44 odd years without support (because I doubt SF would send ships further than 11,250 lys in the early 23rd century and UFP would likely be shifting to exploration of volume and expansion).

Also bear in mind that SF ships by this point had Bussard collectors which could collect interstellar hydrogen (and possibly Deuterium) along with primitive AM generators - its not impossible the probe would be upgraded with these systems and overall efficiency allowing it to maintain operations for those last 44 years.
At this point, I think efficiency and tech upgrades that happened (if they did happen) would allow the probe to function for that long and reach the planet before it finally crash landed and SF lost contact in 2247 (it was in a bad state before it crash landed, so it likely didn't have to travel full 18,750 Ly's but LESS (since Voyager was WITHIN 30,000 ly's of Earth).

That's the only way I can see the Friendship One Probe surviving for that long and reaching its destination.

 

[DSG2k]

I'm not sure the catch-and-release upgrade idea is emotionally satisfying, but it is one possible solution.

2377 - 2067 = 310 years. If the self-destructed planet was 30,000 light-years away from Earth then that's "only" about 100 light-years per year. Of course, they then made it worse by implying that the probe got to the planet 130 years ago . . . that would be 2247, or a mere 180 years' voyage, necessitating a velocity of 166c. At minimum, the scientist guy suggested "decades" since contact with the probe.

Even if the Vulcans had agreed to give Friendship One some sort of speed booster and to drop it off at the edge of Vulcan-explored space off of one of their high-warp ships in 2067, that might, just maybe, be enough to let the probe do ~100c and arrive at Planet Self-Destruct a handful of decades prior without fouling up the far slower human warp development timeline established later.

 

[Deks]

I'm not sure the catch-and-release upgrade idea is emotionally satisfying, but it is one possible solution.

2377 - 2067 = 310 years. If the self-destructed planet was 30,000 light-years away from Earth then that's "only" about 100 light-years per year. Of course, they then made it worse by implying that the probe got to the planet 130 years ago . . . that would be 2247, or a mere 180 years' voyage, necessitating a velocity of 166c. At minimum, the scientist guy suggested "decades" since contact with the probe.

Even if the Vulcans had agreed to give Friendship One some sort of speed booster and to drop it off at the edge of Vulcan-explored space off of one of their high-warp ships in 2067, that might, just maybe, be enough to let the probe do ~100c and arrive at Planet Self-Destruct a handful of decades prior without fouling up the far slower human warp development timeline established later.

I would argue "catch-and-release” is both plausible and consistent

The episode gives us two anchors:
Voyager’s year ≈ 2377. Janeway: Starfleet lost contact ~130 years ago → 2247.
Distance: “within 30,000 ly” of Earth (soft bound, not exact).

Treat the probe as a drone (no life-support burden), refuel-only with Vulcans pre-NX (as its very unlikely they would upgrade the probe at all given they weren't in the tech sharing mood back then and very conservative towards Human deep space program), then era-appropriate Starfleet refits. The numbers close without hand-waving:

Distance ledger (conservative):
2067–2152 (85 yr): Warp 1 = 1c (refuel only) → ~84 ly (even if we allow that Warp 1 is actually 2c - it would only improve distance by another 84 Ly's but the end figure isn't affected at all and stays within the 30,000 ly's distance).
2152–2163 (11 yr): NX refit; sustain W4.5 ≈ 100c → 1,100 ly
2163–2203 (40 yr): UFP tune; sustain ~250c → 10,000 ly
2203–2247 (44 yr): final drone pack; cruise ~420c (peak ~W7/TNG unused) → 18,480 ly
Total by 2247: ~29,664 ly → comfortably “within 30,000 ly.”

No Vulcan “speed booster,” no transwarp, no corridors required. Just refuels early, two reasonable upgrades later, then a long unsupported sprint - exactly how a real agency would run a century-plus probe.

Why it’s emotionally satisfying rather than deflating
It becomes a relay mission across generations: ENT-era caretaking, early-UFP yard periods, and a final lonely run that ends in tragedy. That’s more human than “it magically flew for 180 years on 2067 hardware.”
The loss of contact in 2247 is baked in: thinning relay coverage, coil wear, and a bad atmospheric approach on a volatile world. It fits what Voyager finds.

 

[Kamen Rider Blade]

I never bought the idea that Warp 1 was equivalent of Light speed, because Warp is described as 'Faster than light'... it would have to be at least 1.5 or possibly 2x the speed of light to matter and suit the definition of 'FTL'.

But even if we stick to Warp 1 = 1c (Which I find unlikely), then it doesn't alter the numbers by much and still leaves the probe WITHIN 30,000 Ly's of Earth by the end anyway (according to my calculations).

Regardless of your personal feelings, you & I both know the Warp Factor formula is WELL Established by this point in time.

Warp Factor 1.0 = 1.0c

Regardless of if it's the TOS or TNG era formula, both have Warp Factor 1.0 = 1.0c

So let's just leave it at that.

Plus, Janeway says that 'SF lost contact with the probe 130 years ago' (from her perspective). Since this episode occurs in the 7th year of VOY journey but it would still be just a bit longer than 6 years Voy has been in the DQ, it stands to reason its 2377 when VOY got this mission to retrieve it.
If we subtract 130 years from that, we arrive at year 2247 when SF lost contact).

The MA article on Friendship 1 states that the proble launched in 2067, StarFleet lost contact in 2248. So they had contact for 181 years
Humanities First Contact with the Vulcans happened on April 5th, 2063.

We know Warp 4.5 was made possible as a cruising speed by 2151 on the NX-01 which allowed only 100x c at the time.
Since SF didn't have many/any deep space ships in the time between the launch of the probe and by the time NX-01 was launched (except the freighters which were only capable of Warp 1.5 - its unlikely the freighters would have been anywhere near the probe to lend a hand and SF wasn't formed until LATER), then its possible that until and after SF was formed, Earth asked the Vulcans to check up on the probe and refuel it on a regular basis (but not upgrade it - because the Vulcans wouldn't do that at the time).

Since Friendship 1 launched only 4 years after "First Contact" with the Vulcans, it can't be that much faster than the Phoenix.
Speeds Probably (> Warp Factor 1.0 = 1.0c), but not by much.

Remember the Warp 2 barrier was only broken about 100 years later after First Contact.
TOS Warp Factor 2 = 8.0c.

At the time, we could maybe assume the probe might be able to sustain its operations every 2.5 years before needing refuelling?

If the NX-01 intercepted the probe, upgraded its systems and improved its AM storage etc. sometime in the mid 22nd century (say by 2152), it would have travelled around 170 Lightyears in the first 85 years since its original launch (assuming it was travelling at 2x c - which would be Warp 1 under my stated assumption).

If this happened, then the the probe would now be capable of sustaining approximately Warp 4.5 allowing it to cross about 100 LY's every year and only needing refuelling once every 10 years (since ships are designed to operate for 5 years, and the probe didn't have creature comforts and was designed to operate for long periods... I don't think this extension is unlikely).

So, until we get to 2163 (post UFP foundation and sharing of technology- which might happen even BEFORE the UFP foundation), Warp 7 would be a feasibility for starships... but the Friendship Probe could be intercepted again, refuelled and upgraded to this level since its a probe.

This means that from 2151 to 2163, the probe would be able to cross another 1,080 lightyears, or a total of 1,250 lightyears crossed by 2163.

If SF intercepted it in 2163 and upgraded its Warp systems etc. to about Warp 6.5 or Warp 7 specs, that on TNG scale might push it to about 250 times light speed (maybe).

Since we know from First Contact movie that UFP stretches 8,000 ly's, its likely that by the early 23rd century, it didn't extend that far, but SHIPS may have travelled that distance and explored it (possibly even further)- intercepting and refuelling the probe en route until about 2203 (40 years after UFP was formed) - by this point at 250 odd times the speed of light, the probe would have travelled another 10,000 Ly's (or about 11,250 light years in total).

So, if the Probe was intercepted in 2203 one last time and Warp drive was improved by a decent amount, its feasible the probe could have attained even bigger Warp speeds than Warp 6 on TNG scale... potentially even Warp 7 (which would be about 656 times speed of light).

Now, to cross the remaining 18,750 ly's... the probe would need to sustain a speed of about 426x C for the next 44 odd years without support (because I doubt SF would send ships further than 11,250 lys in the early 23rd century and UFP would likely be shifting to exploration of volume and expansion).

Also bear in mind that SF ships by this point had Bussard collectors which could collect interstellar hydrogen (and possibly Deuterium) along with primitive AM generators - its not impossible the probe would be upgraded with these systems and overall efficiency allowing it to maintain operations for those last 44 years.
At this point, I think efficiency and tech upgrades that happened (if they did happen) would allow the probe to function for that long and reach the planet before it finally crash landed and SF lost contact in 2247 (it was in a bad state before it crash landed, so it likely didn't have to travel full 18,750 Ly's but LESS (since Voyager was WITHIN 30,000 ly's of Earth).

That's WAY too overly complicated and requires too many levels of interference just to make it somewhat plausible, although unlikely due to how many events need to coalesce to make it work.

Let's use Occam's Razor to solve this. The Simpler the Solution, the better.

There are multiple Short Cuts that we've long since understood as Trek Fans that could get you to travel very far, from Alpha to the Delta Quadrant.
► Worm Holes like the Barzan Wormhole or the Micro-Wormhole in the ep "Eye of the Needle". We can assume that previous Wormholes were larger in the past. These are easy shortcuts
► Accidental entry into a Subspace Corridor similar to the UnderSpace and rides the Corridor all the way to the Delta Quadrant. These happen at random.
► Weird Spatial Phenomena that drags you across the quadrants similar to what happened to the USS Voyager. If it happened to USS Voyager, who's to say that somebody else couldn't do this to Friendship 1.
► Weird Spatial Anomaly like the Graviton Ellipse that drags you to god knows where before eventually depositing the probe some where nearby it's target location in the Delta Quadrant. It happened to Ares IV, it could happen to Friendship 1.

Any combination of the above can easily net you massive shortcuts into the Delta Quadrant before Friendship 1 reached Otrin's Homeworld in Grid 310.

Assuming that those short cuts happened to help 'Friendship 1' cross the 30,000 ly distance necessary, the 181 years of operation were probably with the Probe Warping at slow ~Warp Factor 1.# & maybe Warp Coasting to conserve energy when possible since we know Warp Coasting is a viable technique to travel further. So the probe can turn on/off the Warp Engine as needed to keep it at Warp and then before it slows down to the point of dropping out of Warp speed it back up to Maximum Speed and let it coast gradually.

Eventually it'll run into one of the many short cuts above due to sheer dumb luck and it'll end up at the destination that it did and make "First Contact" the way it did.

181 years is a long time to be in operation, a lot of strange things can happen to a probe in space.

Heck, in 1 season of Star Trek, how many randoim weird things happen to our protagonists while traveling in space?

 

[Ithekro]

Friendship One could have gone through the same "black hole" that Voyager Six did decades earlier, but this time on purpose. Sent to the other side of the Galaxy, but as a warp probe, and without knowing where Voyager Six ended up, it goes off in another direction. Earth/Starfleet eventually get messages back from the probe but lose track of it in 2247. Maybe even through whatever the "black hole" actually was.

As for warp factor one = speed of light. Yes, that is the general knowledge. Though like the Warp Ten barrier, the Speed of Light needs a work around it without infinite energy and mass. One proposal was that the warp drive bypasses this when it goes into subspace. You cannot travel at exactly the speed of light, but you can go at the speed of light plus a smidge and get away with it. Cochrane's warp drive might essentially be the speed of light, because the effect of being a smidge over won't be noticed except over extreme periods of time (like arriving at a destination a few minutes early after twenty years of travel at warp factor one).

However, the concept of catching and releasing this probe that will be outpaced by human ships within its operational lifespan is also a possibility. Though the question would be "why refit the existing probe instead of launching a new one?" But humans are sentimental and stubborn like that.

 

[F. King Daniel]

Star Trek is gonna have astronauts thinking black holes and wormholes are gonna be a far bigger issue in space life than they're gonna turn out to be.

 

[DSG2k]

Star Trek is gonna have astronauts thinking black holes and wormholes are gonna be a far bigger issue in space life than they're gonna turn out to be.

Imagine that situation on the ground. You're just trying to run a business in San Francisco but like 15% of your commuting workforce trying to drive in to the office gets tossed to some random location on the eastern half of the country throughout the year.

 

[Deks]

Friendship One could have gone through the same "black hole" that Voyager Six did decades earlier, but this time on purpose. Sent to the other side of the Galaxy, but as a warp probe, and without knowing where Voyager Six ended up, it goes off in another direction. Earth/Starfleet eventually get messages back from the probe but lose track of it in 2247. Maybe even through whatever the "black hole" actually was.

As for warp factor one = speed of light. Yes, that is the general knowledge. Though like the Warp Ten barrier, the Speed of Light needs a work around it without infinite energy and mass. One proposal was that the warp drive bypasses this when it goes into subspace. You cannot travel at exactly the speed of light, but you can go at the speed of light plus a smidge and get away with it. Cochrane's warp drive might essentially be the speed of light, because the effect of being a smidge over won't be noticed except over extreme periods of time (like arriving at a destination a few minutes early after twenty years of travel at warp factor one).

However, the concept of catching and releasing this probe that will be outpaced by human ships within its operational lifespan is also a possibility. Though the question would be "why refit the existing probe instead of launching a new one?" But humans are sentimental and stubborn like that.

Warp shortcut are not a viable explanation though, neither are black holes (that would normally tear ships and probes apart) or wormholes.
Encouraging those phenomena would require astronomical odds, and it's extremely unlikely that a warp probe would.

Simply speaking, there is no evidence the probe encountered them. And my proposed solution doesn't rely on any of that to work anyway.

It's not perfect but it explains how the probe could remain functional without doing absurd mental gymnastics with trying to justify a probe with 2067 era tech traversing about 30k ly's.

Additionally it would be impossible for the probe to maintain subspace contact for most of its lifetime if it went through a wormhole, a warp corridor or something else. The navigational issues would likely cause problems for the computer and SF would have lost contact well before then.

And besides the warp 1= 1c was never canon. But my calculations do allow for this to be the case since in my scenario it doesn't t alter the calculations by much at all if we assume the probe wasn't upgraded during the first 84 years of its operations (merely refuelling by the Vulcas). It wouldn't be at least until.the nx-01 era that the probe could be reached and upgraded by starfleet and still being well in the ballpark of 30k ly'a by the end.

It's far more likely the probe received support for most of its lifetime to keep it going and then did the last leg fully on its own after it reaches a point where SF ships didn't venture out anymore due to political and other reasons.

Ships get servicing and upgrades on a regular basis, it's highly unlikely that a mere warp probe from 2067 wouldn't.

 

[Deks]

Regardless of your personal feelings, you & I both know the Warp Factor formula is WELL Established by this point in time.

Warp Factor 1.0 = 1.0c

Regardless of if it's the TOS or TNG era formula, both have Warp Factor 1.0 = 1.0c

So let's just leave it at that.

It's not canon though, but my calculations do allow for the warp 1 to be 1c anyway, so it's not an issue.

The MA article on Friendship 1 states that the proble launched in 2067, StarFleet lost contact in 2248. So they had contact for 181 years
Humanities First Contact with the Vulcans happened on April 5th, 2063.

Big whoop, I was at best off by 1 year, but since the Voy episode happens in mid late 2377, 2247 as the cut off point still works (1 year isn't going to make much of a difference on a cosmic scale).

Since Friendship 1 launched only 4 years after "First Contact" with the Vulcans, it can't be that much faster than the Phoenix.
Speeds Probably (> Warp Factor 1.0 = 1.0c), but not by much.

Remember the Warp 2 barrier was only broken about 100 years later after First Contact.
TOS Warp Factor 2 = 8.0c.

And my calculations accounted for that by stating that the probe was merely refuelled by the Vulcans during those initial 84 years in intervals of about 2.5 years.
Which keeps the probe slow until the NX intercept. The speed that matters occurs post-2150, not in 2067.

That's WAY too overly complicated and requires too many levels of interference just to make it somewhat plausible, although unlikely due to how many events need to coalesce to make it work.

Let's use Occam's Razor to solve this. The Simpler the Solution, the better.

There are multiple Short Cuts that we've long since understood as Trek Fans that could get you to travel very far, from Alpha to the Delta Quadrant.
► Worm Holes like the Barzan Wormhole or the Micro-Wormhole in the ep "Eye of the Needle". We can assume that previous Wormholes were larger in the past. These are easy shortcuts
► Accidental entry into a Subspace Corridor similar to the UnderSpace and rides the Corridor all the way to the Delta Quadrant. These happen at random.
► Weird Spatial Phenomena that drags you across the quadrants similar to what happened to the USS Voyager. If it happened to USS Voyager, who's to say that somebody else couldn't do this to Friendship 1.
► Weird Spatial Anomaly like the Graviton Ellipse that drags you to god knows where before eventually depositing the probe some where nearby it's target location in the Delta Quadrant. It happened to Ares IV, it could happen to Friendship 1.

Occam’s Razor actually favours my solutions over “mystery shortcuts”.
Refuels + two era-appropriate upgrades + a final drone pack are standard Starfleet behaviours. Stacking wormholes/underspace/ellipses is more assumptions and still has to coincidentally dump the probe near the target—while not wrecking comms. That’s the opposite of parsimony.

Any combination of the above can easily net you massive shortcuts into the Delta Quadrant before Friendship 1 reached Otrin's Homeworld in Grid 310.

Assuming that those short cuts happened to help 'Friendship 1' cross the 30,000 ly distance necessary, the 181 years of operation were probably with the Probe Warping at slow ~Warp Factor 1.# & maybe Warp Coasting to conserve energy when possible since we know Warp Coasting is a viable technique to travel further. So the probe can turn on/off the Warp Engine as needed to keep it at Warp and then before it slows down to the point of dropping out of Warp speed it back up to Maximum Speed and let it coast gradually.

Eventually it'll run into one of the many short cuts above due to sheer dumb luck and it'll end up at the destination that it did and make "First Contact" the way it did.

181 years is a long time to be in operation, a lot of strange things can happen to a probe in space.

Heck, in 1 season of Star Trek, how many randoim weird things happen to our protagonists while traveling in space?

The combination of those events to perfectly align are astronomically mind boggling and ridiculous to happen with such frequency - we only saw a handful of SF full history... a huge chunk remains unaccounted for... its highly unlikely ALL of it would be packed with such weird occurrences.

The far more likely explanation is that the probe was mainly traveling via warp and didn't encounter any weird anomalies (otherwise, voyager would have retrace it's path and try to find the exit point from whatever anomaly the probe may have encountered).

Additionally, your confluence of unlikely events hinges on the premise that SF and the probe could maintain contact after encountering such phenomena. Not only would those anomalies wreack havoc with onboard technology and sensors systems, it is likely that SF would have lost contact well before and wouldn't be able to find it to re-establish contact.

You still need to know where to direct a subspace message mainly and we've seen that anomalies like the one Ares iV encountered severely damaged the module it engulfed ( that anomaly - a graviton elipse) even Janeway said this anomaly was observed a handful of times.

Simply speaking a probe from 2067 wouldn't survive those anomalies and able to maintain constant contact for 180 to 181 years

 

[knightgrace]

Okay, I prefer the term 'Light Speed Equivalent '.

But exactly what is a time warp? A space warp is easy - a linear contraction of a given distance.

But...

Please remember that even the first warp equipped ships, most likely could not attain even warp factor one - because it takes a continuous warp field to approach light speed equivalent. In other words you are warping the whole time. This is why constant fuel is required, or rather constant power.

So, we have a problem ( problems are good (fun)).

This is the problem: how to explain how Impossibly slow ships getting anywhere? Impossibly slow? Light speed equivalent?

Up until the right energy level is reached, it is a space warp. Not a time warp. The physics change, then.

Energy levels. A rock falling through the atmosphere towards the center of the Earth accelerates at 32 feet per second traveling a distance of sixteen feet in the first second. Distance traveled is per second per second or t^2.

In other words time.

Warped time is t^3. It becomes t^3 as light speed equivalent is attained. But to what end? The hints are there.

It's apparent that what we are talking about is energy levels, that there is a peak energy level that, given enough time and distance will be attained.

Because of the unit measurement is light-years per year, this reveals that the required distance to to reach peak energy is the square root of the peak energy. Such that being able to attain time warp factor three is the reduced distance to attain peak energy. In other threads I have posted that the first peak energy is 320c light speed equivalent. Or close to 18 light-years distance at warp factor one, or at the give time warp factor three 1/27 of nearly 18 light-years.


But your analysis is positively brilliant...

 

[Kamen Rider Blade]

It's not canon though

Spoiler: This Warp Factor to Logarithmic Speed of Light chart use in ST:ENT

That entire "Warp Factor : Logarthimic Speed of Light" Line Chart along with "Warp Factor : Power Consumption" Line Chart shown in ST:ENT was derived off the TOS Warp Factor Scale.
Go ahead, double check the math for the Speed yourself, I already did.

That's why I treat the TOS & TNG era Warp Factor formulas as Canon, the Production Staff did their best to follow it, and even portrayed it on-screen when relevant.

 

[Deks]

Okay, I prefer the term 'Light Speed Equivalent '.

But exactly what is a time warp? A space warp is easy - a linear contraction of a given distance.

But...

Please remember that even the first warp equipped ships, most likely could not attain even warp factor one - because it takes a continuous warp field to approach light speed equivalent. In other words you are warping the whole time. This is why constant fuel is required, or rather constant power.

So, we have a problem ( problems are good (fun)).

This is the problem: how to explain how Impossibly slow ships getting anywhere? Impossibly slow? Light speed equivalent?

Up until the right energy level is reached, it is a space warp. Not a time warp. The physics change, then.

Energy levels. A rock falling through the atmosphere towards the center of the Earth accelerates at 32 feet per second traveling a distance of sixteen feet in the first second. Distance traveled is per second per second or t^2.

In other words time.

Warped time is t^3. It becomes t^3 as light speed equivalent is attained. But to what end? The hints are there.

It's apparent that what we are talking about is energy levels, that there is a peak energy level that, given enough time and distance will be attained.

Because of the unit measurement is light-years per year, this reveals that the required distance to to reach peak energy is the square root of the peak energy. Such that being able to attain time warp factor three is the reduced distance to attain peak energy. In other threads I have posted that the first peak energy is 320c light speed equivalent. Or close to 18 light-years distance at warp factor one, or at the give time warp factor three 1/27 of nearly 18 light-years.


But your analysis is positively brilliant...

Happy to use Light-Speed Equivalent. Also fine with Warp 1 = 1c.
Trek doesn’t describe routine FTL as “warping time.” Warp is metric engineering: you shape subspace so the ship advances through external space faster than light while local time in the bubble stays tame. Time-warp is reserved for actual time travel plots, not the speed scale.

Ships go to high warp in seconds, drop to impulse, re-engage - no 18-ly runway. That’s apparently accurate from TOS through VOY. The limiting factors are field-coil stress, heat, fuel, and safety margins, not needing to travel N light-years first.

TOS often behaves as if v∝warp3v \propto \text{warp}^3v∝warp3 (speed, not time).
TNG’s published scale is steeper near Warp 10 (e.g., dialogue in The 37’s puts Warp 9.9 ≈ 4.4 billion miles per second, which translates to 21,473c).
However, none of this implies “t³ time” or a mandatory distance to hit a “peak.”

Maintaining a warp field costs power yes; but, drones/probes can devote more mass to tanks, ramscoops, radiators, and coil redundancy. That’s precisely why a probe can cruise hot and long between services.

And for Friendship One we don’t need exotic physics anyway.

It was launched in 2067 - 4 years after FC - which to be fair for Humanity is actually a lot of time when they collectively decided to almost immediately get their act together and resolve their issues. So some attention would be pushed toward the Warp program (there's no reason to think they sat idly focusing on Earth alone because we know the Vulcans were constantly trying to reign Humanity in).

4 years seems like enough time to inspire scientists and engineers, even with that level of tech to construct a long range probe that can sustain Warp 1 and reach out (even if Humanity couldn't immediately).
It seems that civilisations that break through the Warp barrier, maintaining Warp 1 is much easier long term than going faster - especially for a non-manned object like Friendship one that's specifically designed for such a purpose (as opposed to a starship).

Using only conservative envelopes and era-plausible servicing:

2067–2152: refuels only (every 2.5 years at least - at most, it might be longer) @ 1c ≈ 85 ly
2152–2163: NX refit, sustain W4.5 ≈ 100c → ~1,100 ly
2163–2203: early-UFP tune, ~250c → ~10,000 ly
2203–2247: drone pack, ~420c → ~18,480 ly
Total ~29.7 kly → squarely “within 30,000 ly” as stated in the episode. No wormholes, no black holes, no roulette.

To me this is far cleaner and much more plausible series of events (even for Trek) to happen in universe.

 

[Kamen Rider Blade]

TNG’s published scale is steeper near Warp 10 (e.g., dialogue in The 37’s puts Warp 9.9 ≈ 4.4 billion miles per second, which translates to 21,473c).
However, none of this implies “t³ time” or a mandatory distance to hit a “peak.”

TNG's published formula & scale is only accurate up to Warp Factor 9.
After that, it's a Hand-Drawn curve to Infinity which I dislike since that is a intentional fudge factor by the creator of the scale.
IMO, that was silly and should've never been allowed, but it is what it is.

I would definitely kill the Hand-Drawn curve to Infinity in a future revision to the Warp Factor scale and just let the TNG era formula run naturally to infinity.
All the Warp Factor Speeds you would ever need for Story Telling to use are basically between Warp Factor 1.0 & Warp Factor 1,000.0.

Very rarely would you in story line need anything past that for Vehicles to travel at, the only thing faster than Warp Factor 1,000.0 would be Hyper Subspace Communications across Galaxy, which Reginald Barclay & the PathFinder folks accomplished already & how fast "The Traveler" made the Enterprise-D move to cross between the Milky Way Galaxy & Triangulum Galaxy.

 

[Deks]

Spoiler: This Warp Factor to Logarithmic Speed of Light chart use in ST:ENT

That entire "Warp Factor : Logarthimic Speed of Light Chart" along with "Power Consumption : Warp Factor" shown in ST:ENT was derived off the TOS Warp Factor Scale.
Go ahead, double check the math for the Speed yourself, I already did.

That's why I treat the TOS & TNG era Warp Factor formulas as Canon, the Production Staff did their best to follow it, and even portrayed it on-screen when relevant.

I'm not rigid enough to not be able to say that scale doesn't maintain the premise that Warp 1 = 1c (which it does), and I did state in my previous response that my explanation works even with Warp 1 = 1c and still lands the Friendship One probe well within 30,000 ly with routine refuels + two upgrades + a final drone pack.

 

[Kamen Rider Blade]

I'm not rigid enough to not be able to compromise, and I did state in my previous response that my explanation works even with Warp 1 = 1c and still lands the Friendship One probe well within 30,000 ly with routine refuels + two upgrades + a final drone pack.

That's fine, if that's how you want to solve the mystery, that's one way of solving it.

But realistically, it's a answer that nobody really cares to put a solution to since I doubt the writers would ever want to revisit this story.

There are any number of plausible explanations to make it work.

Your Solution, or My Solution, or Any Other Solution could realistically work.

We are working within the Trek Universe where the unlikely happens on a weekly basis.

 

[Deks]

That's fine, if that's how you want to solve the mystery, that's one way of solving it.

But realistically, it's a answer that nobody really cares to put a solution to since I doubt the writers would ever want to revisit this story.

There are any number of plausible explanations to make it work.

Your Solution, or My Solution, or Any Other Solution could realistically work.

We are working within the Trek Universe where the unlikely happens on a weekly basis.

I agree there are many in-universe possibilities. I’m using the one with fewest assumptions that still hits the episode anchors (loss of contact ~2247/48; “within 30,000 ly”): routine refuels → two era-appropriate upgrades → final drone pack. That yields ~29.7–30.1 kly without invoking wormholes, corridors, or black holes.

Stacking rare anomalies multiplies improbabilities and usually breaks long-range comms (not to mention navigation), which contradicts the ~180 years of contact. Occam’s Razor points to maintenance and logistics, not a confluence of outliers (and despite the random convergence of the said outliers in specific episodes, those are STILL outliers in the large scheme of things).

 

[Kamen Rider Blade]

Stacking rare anomalies multiplies improbabilities and usually breaks long-range comms, which contradicts the ~180 years of contact. Occam’s Razor points to maintenance and logistics, not a confluence of outliers.

The Multiple Rare Anomalies only happens after losing contact.

How many times did the USS Voyager or Enterprise-D encounter a "Rare Anomaly / Phenomena"?

 

[Deks]

The Multiple Rare Anomalies only happens after losing contact.

How many times did the USS Voyager or Enterprise-D encounter a "Rare Anomaly / Phenomena"?

Even ENT-D and VOY didn't encounter all those random anomalies every single week. Most of the time they'd be dealing with some kind or intelligence (alien of the week or intentionally structured series of events to test the ship), not random natural phenomena that would be outliers (VOY alone had what 2 wormhole encounters? One in Eye of the Needle and 1 with the Barzan wormhole - and they BARELY found them.

For the purpose of Friendship One, we can park anomalies after 2247 if you like - they don’t change the requirement that the probe covers ~30k ly before the loss-of-contact date.

(Warp-1 = 1c): 2067–2152 ≈ 85 ly; 2152–2163 ≈ 1,100 ly @ W4.5; 2163–2203 ≈ 10,000 ly @ ~250c; 2203–2247 ≈ 18,480 ly @ ~420c → ~29.7 kly (“within 30,000 ly”).

Also, 180 years of continuous comms argue against the probe repeatedly plunging through major anomalies before 2247 - those are exactly the events that tend to scramble nav/comms. Kim’s “skip ahead a little” line in the episode refers to local anomalies near the endpoint, not a chain of miracle shortcuts.

So sure - maybe it hits something weird after 2247 on the way down. But the pre-2247, distance is already closed by boring logistics: refuels, two upgrades, final drone pack. That’s the least-assumption solution that matches the dialogue.

 

[Kamen Rider Blade]

Even ENT-D and VOY didn't encounter all those random anomalies every single week. Most of the time they'd be dealing with some kind or intelligence (alien of the week or intentionally structured series of events to test the ship), not random natural phenomena that would be outliers (VOY alone had what 2 wormhole encounters? One in Eye of the Needle and 1 with the Barzan wormhole - and they BARELY found them.

For the purpose of Friendship One, we can park anomalies after 2247 if you like - they don’t change the requirement that the probe covers ~30k ly before the loss-of-contact date.

(Warp-1 = 1c): 2067–2152 ≈ 85 ly; 2152–2163 ≈ 1,100 ly @ W4.5; 2163–2203 ≈ 10,000 ly @ ~250c; 2203–2247 ≈ 18,480 ly @ ~420c → ~29.7 kly (“within 30,000 ly”).

Also, 180 years of continuous comms argue against the probe repeatedly plunging through major anomalies before 2247 - those are exactly the events that tend to scramble nav/comms. Kim’s “skip ahead a little” line in the episode refers to local anomalies near the endpoint, not a chain of miracle shortcuts.

So sure - maybe it hits something weird after 2247 on the way down. But the pre-2247, distance is already closed by boring logistics: refuels, two upgrades, final drone pack. That’s the least-assumption solution that matches the dialogue.

My concept is that the majority of the travel distance is done via the Random Anomaly of the week post 2247.
Before then it was slowly putzing around at ~Warp 1.# going by very slowly.
Only after getting thrust so far out, did it randomly run into the Planet of the Week that we saw.

It's a weird concept, but it only takes single digit amount of Anomalies to force the Probe to travel that far out after 2247.

 

[Deks]

My concept is that the majority of the travel distance is done via the Random Anomaly of the week post 2247.
Before then it was slowly putzing around at ~Warp 1.# going by very slowly.
Only after getting thrust so far out, did it randomly run into the Planet of the Week that we saw.

It's a weird concept, but it only takes single digit amount of Anomalies to force the Probe to travel that far out after 2247.

With due respect, that doesn't make any sense and it contradicts what we saw on-screen.

Two things from the episode: (1) Starfleet loses contact ~2247; (2) by 2377 Voyager is already in the neighbourhood and follows the probe’s recorded trajectory, with Kim suggesting a small “skip ahead” for local anomalies.

If the big jumps happened after 2247 as you suggest, Starfleet wouldn’t know where to send Voyager and the recorded trajectory wouldn’t point anywhere useful. If the big jumps happened before 2247, you wouldn’t have 180 years of comms because as we know, such jumps mess with navigation, communications, and it would be impossible for SF to track the probe consistently that way.

That’s why the anomaly-carousel model contradicts the episode. The boring explanation - routine refuels → two era upgrades → final drone pack—puts the probe ~29.7 kly out before 2247 and matches the search pattern on screen.