Given Picard says it was a predestination paradox, it means Rene Picard probably wouldn't have gone on the Europa mission and the Confederation would have risen instead of the Federation.
Kind of, a very convoluted one. But this can be put down to Q’s game with Picard and Humanity. Picard had to destroy the Federation and humanity in order for Q to intervene and help prevent him from doing so, but in the process of helping Picard undo his mistake, Q decided as usual to test his metal and give him a very hard time in doing so - his penance. It’s kind of like a reboot of
All Good Thing’s but with a different and much simpler storyline. Picard destroyed the Stargazer, ******* ****’s attack annihilated a planet with repercussions possibly a lot worse for the entire galaxy. Q decides to intervene and assembles a team for Picard, sending them in to the alternate Confederation timeline. This was the start of Q’s game… part of his penance to Picard which would ultimately lead him to undo his mistake of destroying the Stargazer and potentially opening up a massive can of galactic worms as a result. By travelling back in time, Picard et al must also stop the formation of the Confederation timeline, even though ironically they needed to be in the Confederation timeline in order to ‘rescue’ the Queen. Of course, our heroes eventually end up saving the day with a little help and also ‘non-help’ off Q… again, all a part of his game. Q in his dying word’s tells Picard how much he loves him and will miss him, and the final click of his finger is Picard’s reward for fixing the Confederation timeline and resolving a load of his own personal demons too… but he has one final thing to do when he arrives back on to the Stargazer bridge, so technically when Q ‘died’ he didn’t know whether Picard had actually saved the day or not and made the right decision when he returned? Anyway, Picard is wished back to the Stargazer along with his time travelling team of companions where he belays his own auto destruct order and initiates diplomatic channels with the Borg Co-operative instead - this was his final trial. But Q left this part of the trial to Picard alone and did not interfere. Together, Starfleet and the Borg successfully and epically defend against the incoming attack. The twist is that this diplomatic link with the Borg and the resulting successful defence mission would not have happened if Q had not wished our heroes in to the Confederation timeline. As I previously mentioned, our team needed to rescue the Queen from this timeline, it was probably the only timeline where she was easily available for easy heisting. They also needed to travel back in time with *both* the Queen and Jurati in order for these two characters to get to know each other, have a dance, bust a musical number and decide that they want to fly off together to form a Borg co-operative of the willing. This Borg co-operative then confronts a terrible threat in the 25th century, a threat not just against themselves but also against the Federation. The Borg travel to Federation space and attempt to make contact with Picard - Picard responds and the whole cycle is complete, the Federation and the Borg are saved and destroyed at the same time, but Q needs to put Picard through some hard grafting so that the timeline that he ends up back in is the one where everything works out ok in the end.
Here are some points which summerise Q’s ‘gifts’, ‘puzzle pieces’ and other major fixed and non-fixed points in the timeline, major events which impacted and shaped this season etc. I think that most other plot points in the season were superfluous:
- Q sending our team to the Confederation timeline so that they could rescue the Borg Queen, but they would need to undo this Confederate timeline in order to return to the ‘prime timeline’.
- Our crew travel back in time to fix the future using their own initiative, but Q knew that Picard would figure this out as the only option. This is part of Q’s game, not a fixed point in time.
- By going back in time, the crew accidentally interfere with history, though only with non-fixed points in time which will only have minor impacts/butterfly effects if any affects at all on the prime timeline.
- Q also continues his ‘game’ with Picard and tries to prevent René’s rocket launch. This had to be done by Q in order to create the Confederation timeline so that Picard at al can rescue the Queen and fulfil bullet point one above. Q knew that Picard would be able to tidy up after him, that was part of his game.
- René makes the space flight due to help from our gang, the Supervisors/Watchers/Travellers and thus ‘prime’ history is restored. This is a very important fixed point in time as it leads to the prime future that we all know and love. This fixed point in time needs protecting at all costs for things to work out properly in the future. This is how we got season 3 in a more recognisable Star Trek universe format, hopefully the *real* prime timeline!
- Jurati and the Borg Queen travel to the Delta Quadrant to make contact with the Borg and establish a more benign Borg Co-operative, possibly laying low for several centuries on a planet until the Borg were decimated by Captain Janeway, after which the co-operative helped to rebuild what was left of the collective, ‘building back better Borg’.
- The Borg detect a threat to the Federation and go to help, asking for Picard. Picard and Jurati Queen work together to defend against a devastating attack. Disaster is averted.
- Season 3 can now happen with all of the TNG cast back in our beloved prime timeline.

Let me know if I’ve missed something, though bare in mind I’m only mentioning the important points here.
