Okay, so since today is Axaversary, I'll offer a couple of thoughts:
1. CBS screwed up. They waited until LFIM raised (and spent) $1.4M over multiple crowdfunding campaigns to take action. This meant that once CBS did act, LFIM had every incentive to fight to the bitter end.
2. CBS and Paramount did not anticipate LFIM retaining competent counsel. This was their major tactical error. The studios assumed this would be a Blitzkrieg against a broke and overwhelmed defendant. The fact they hinted at a number of "John Does" in the complaint was also a complete bluff, one that LFIM successfully called.
3. CBS should have treated this as a matter of consumer protection, rather than copyright infringement, from the beginning. We know that even before the lawsuit there were a ton of red flags surrounding Axanar's spending. If CBS had lobbied the California AG or the FTC to investigate Axanar--in effect, let the government do the dirty work--LFIM would have been exposed and stopped without the need to bring copyright up and give Axanar supporters the chance to drone on and on about a non-existent fair use defense.
4. For that matter, if CBS and Paramount had done nothing, Axanar probably would've imploded on its own by now. The lawsuit gave LFIM a built-in excuse for not completing the film.
5. While I know "Axanar ruined it for other fan films" is a popular narrative in some quarters, I disagree. LFIM did not force CBS' hand--the 8,500-plus fans who donated to the crowdfunding campaigns did. Jon Van Critters has been pretty open that the studios wanted to end the "arms race" among fan films. Even if Axanar never happened, itwas inevitable that some other fan project would've come along and put up similar numbers.
6. Speaking of Van Critters, it strikes me that his dereliction of duty allowed a lot of this to happen. We've all mocked LFIM for his emails to Van Critters "ratting out" the other fan films. But another way to look at that is LFIM was testing the boundaries of what CBS would tolerate. Prior to the fan film guidelines, CBS offered no public guidance whatsoever, and it's fair for Axanar to point out (in terms of PR, not the lawsuit) that the studios enjoyed a promotional benefit from fan films.
7. To that end, if Van Critters had sat down with LFIM--
before he started crowdfunding--and given him strict guidelines on what he could and could not do, is there any reason to believe LFIM would not have complied? After all, LFIM clearly got into Axanar hoping that somehow his work would ingratiate him to CBS and get him hired for "official" Trek. Instead, Van Critters and CBS maintained their vague "unwritten" policies until it was too late.
8. Despite everything I said above, the actual lawsuit to me remains straightforward:
- Does C/P own the copyrights to Star Trek? Yes.
- Did Axanar/LFIM infringe those copyrights? Yes.
- Is Axanar/LFIM's infringement protected by fair use? No.
The only thing left to resolve is how long LFIM will hold out. My guess is that a year from now, we'll still be talking about this case, albeit in the appellate stage.