The figure is from here:
https://www.kurzweilai.net/understanding-the-accelerating-rate-of-change
"And because of the explosive power of exponential growth, the 21st century will be equivalent to 20,000 years of progress at today’s rate of progress, which is a thousand times greater than the 20th century, which was no slouch to change."
So, if the 21st century will be progressing at 1000x faster than the 20th... we could reasonably posit the same or greater increase in speed will occur for the 22nd century (assuming we reverse climate change, repair environmental damage and restore lost biodiversity - all of which could be done in less than 10 years), meaning that 20 000 years would now become 20 MILLION years worth of advancement (so if anything, my previous calculations for UFP's rate of progress/evolution were... EXTREMELY conservative).
I think THIS is what Trek should be portraying (and Dyson Swarms/Type II civilization, Type III and Type IV would conceivably be part of it).
I've read some of Ray Kurzweil's stuff periodically, and I'll have to disagree with you on a lot of it. I think in some ways he's a genuinely smart guy, but he's been known to make any number of loopy predictions with regards to the Singularity and the rate of technological progress.
I don't think our technological potential, in terms of rate, is anywhere near that level, even assuming we had access to Trek eras of technology. If you look at the design of modern aircraft, you'll see that many of them have essential design elements that seldom change in a radical fashion. This is because flight is based on a specific set of physical laws, independent of the technology, and any functional aircraft has to be built around those mechanics or it won't be able to fly. Turboprop engines haven't totally disappeared since the jet engine became practical, even though it has some advantages. We're not at a point where modern aircraft are going to look like UFOs in terms of their design, as cool as that may sound.
I mean, it only makes sense that at the height of the tensions between UFP and Dominion (before the war began), UFP would be engaged in upgrading ALL its ships and building new ones.
And how long would that realistically take, given that TMP says it took a year and a half to refit the USS Enterprise to the new configuration? Given that all the bugs weren't quite worked out (as with the transporters and engines) and Decker felt Kirk was out of his element, since the internal systems had been radically changed? And that's just the length of time to modify a single ship. A fleet would take much longer, even more so with the resource crunch of a wartime setting.
How many times have we seen that replicators are obviously highly useful, and yet some cultures either never develop them or simply don't find them superior to "antiquated" methods? Sisko's dad runs such a restaurant and passed some of those skills to his son. Picard's parents talked about getting a replicator apparently, though it's unclear whether they did; Robert seemed to think that replicated wine was obviously inferior to the real thing. O'Brien's mother refused to use one. This is partly due to the fact that most of the writers hated the replicator concept in TNG, because they realized how many problems it could cause in an economy even if it also has advantages. Why bother to treasure historic art if you can just replicate more? Why honor the Prime Directive if doing so means inherently letting people starve or suffer from disease? Isn't that far worse than the problems of cultural contamination, if we assume (naturally) that we can limit that by controlling the technology?
I wholeheartedly agree it's prudent to build as many resources as you can, especially in wartime, but I also understand how the basic limits of geography and existing options work. I was watching "In The Pale Moonlight" yesterday for fun, since it's a favorite episode, and Vreenak makes a point of highlighting how the Dominion shipyards are operating at full capacity as are their troop breeding grounds, whereas the Federation and the Klingons are struggling just to stay alive. Since the Dominion doesn't really have a large civilian base and the Jem'Hadar are exclusively a military force, this is naturally an advantage in wartime.
To be fair, all of those would be long forgotten and part of the past. Inter-species issues would have existed primarily in the early days of UFP, but would have largely disappeared in a few decades at best.
I mean, if Humanity was able to act as a bridge between species which had strained and practically barely speaking relationships in the past to the point where they brought them all together into a massive alliance that hadn't been seen before in that part of space (from what we know) in less than 10 years, then it stands to reason those kinds of social and inter-species tensions would have disappeared fairly quickly (and a way to doing that would likely be accomplished via exposure to relevant general education of the general public which would be facilitated by the UFP council - at least you'd expect mature civilizations to handle such issues - they'd have to in order to function as part of UFP and to eventually result in various species mixing together which would result in hybrids as well).
You mean like how France has obviously "forgotten" centuries of warfare and political rivalry with countries like England and Germany, since they're not presently at war and unlikely to have such poor relations in the immediate future?


I'd have to say again that I'd consider this to be moving way too fast to be realistic. Styles was pretty bigoted towards Spock in "Balance of Terror" and seemingly convinced that a new war against the Romulans would be a good thing, because his ancestors fought in that war a century earlier. That the Vulcans and Romulans proved to be cousins of sorts only heightened his dislike of Spock.
Another point that comes up for emphasis in "Pale Moonlight" is how the Romulans - who are extremely territorial - are also content to let the Dominion violate their borders if it serves their war aims - especially since they're fighting the same states that the Romulans themselves have been opposing for ages. As long as the Dominion is otherwise honoring their neutrality, it doesn't seem like a huge threat. Sisko's counter that the Founders will ultimately stab the Romulans in the back when they win is a perfectly logical point, and yet it's not sufficient alone to persuade Vreenak (and by extension, the Empire).
To be fair, V'ger wasn't 'incredibly damaging'... powerful and dangerous? Yes, but it didn't do any permanent damage to UFP.
The Borg were also not too damaging. Sure, SF lost almost 40 ships and 11 000 lives at Wolf 359, but Shelby pretty much shrugged off the incident saying SF will bring the fleet back up in a year.
11 000 lost people isn't a small thing, and since UFP cherishes preservation of life, it would be seen as a devastating loss to them at the time, but on a larger scale, that's probably nothing compared to lives lost when the Xindi decided to attack Florida, or during the initial war between UFP and Klingons during Disco S1... or the border wars between UFP and Cardassians (albeit, those weren't conceived by the writers as of yet, so... the UFP only losing 11 000 people at Wolf 359 and 40 ships was actually somewhat 'lucky' - the losses could have been higher).
It didn't do any permanent damage, thankfully - but it came close to destroying the planet. So did the whale probe in TVH. W359 seemed like a reasonable large loss in peacetime, though I agree some of the statistics are a bit wonky.
The Dominion capturing Betazed was a stretch for me. SF was effectively 'caught with their pants down' (which is ludicrous since sensors have ridiculous ranges and computers would be automatically alerting the crew if a large fleet of enemy ships was approaching). It was further compounded by the stupidity of Betazed's orbital defenses being in the process of being upgraded (as they were 80 years old). Now, who does that?
SF found time to upgrade the USS Lakota to rival the Defiant before the war broke out... the needed orbital upgrades would have occurred prior to the war (when the Dominion threat became eminent at the end of DS9 Season 2 - majority of S3 was spent upgrading DS9 - and SF technology is capable of self-repair and self-upgrades... who the heck would forget making such upgrades to all UFP member planets on a regular basis?).
Starships receive regular maintenance and upgrades every few years... why the heck would orbital defenses NOT receive the same treatment?
I'm glad "Pale Moonlight" goes into some nice details about the attack, mainly because I consider it part of the good writing. We learn several things about how the invasion happened:
* The Dominion force went through an adjoining sector, which Starfleet Intelligence did not view as a weakness because it was a significant distance from the front lines, and the enemy's own supply lines. They might have also assumed - wrongly - that such a force would have spotted and stopped much quicker.
* The 10th Fleet was supposed to be the main defense in that sector, but they were caught off guard and out of position doing training exercises.
* Betazed has orbital defenses but they're obsolete and undermanned. The whole assault took a mere 10 hours, which I admit for me is a bit of a stretch even allowing the Dominion's manpower advantages. But not entirely impossible.
The United States has 50 distinct states and a number of territories. It's not likely to be able to upgrade all of those instantaneously or even quickly, even though it does maintain specific standards of what is needed. And geography plays a role in that as much as the local infrastructure and the resources from the federal government do. Where I live in eastern VA, there have been a number of debates because there is a plan to expand the local Air Force base significantly from its current design. Some residents don't want that option because they feel it's a waste of taxpayer money and it will increase the noise pollution from the existing jets (which is at times significant), while others feel the extra training and employment for the military residents would offset the problems.
In reading some of my library on military history, and also several "what if" books about possible alternatives, one of the ideas that comes up with WWII is a target the Axis Powers didn't directly attack. Luckily for us.

Sometimes enemies can just surprise you. Pearl Harbor was thought be protected from conventional torpedoes before the Japanese attack, because its water base is shallow and not deep enough for many of the then-current models to arm properly. The Japanese solved this issue by modifying their torpedoes to function differently, as they spent extensive time studying Pearl's geography in preparation for the strike. And they continued to use those improved weapons for the remainder of the war, because it let them hit targets in shallower water.