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‘Project Hail Mary’ To Blast Off To $45M-$55M Opening, ‘Ready Or Not 2’ $11M+ – Early Box Office Look

Amazon MGM Studios’ $150M feature production Project Hail Mary arrived on tracking today with some heat, eyeing a potential $50M start in North America when it opens on March 20.

The film about a high school science teacher (Ryan Gosling) who finds himself thrust into space to solve a galaxy-deterioration situation is strong with men in first choice, but it’s also very strong among women. Current first-choice figures for the pic are ahead of Oppenheimer, F1 and Weapons when they first hit tracking (remember, nobody was spotting Oppenheimer at an $82.4M opening in its initial projections). Project Hail Mary, from directors Phil Lord and Christopher Miller and producer Amy Pascal, is the first four-quad movie since Avatar: Fire and Ash.

Note that only 87 titles have opened to north of $40M at the domestic box office, and only seven have been non-sequels (that includes Oppenheimer and It Ends with Us). Project Hail Mary already has heat because it’s based on the 2021 bestselling novel by Andy Weir, who wrote The Martian. That pic was turned into the 7x Oscar-nominated 2015 Ridley Scott movie starring Matt Damon, which opened to $54.3M and legged out to $228.4M domestic and $630.6M worldwide.


Amazon MGM Studios began screening Project Hail Mary to the press on Thursday night at the TCL Chinese Theater, where the 2 hour, 36-minute sci-fi movie was met with great applause at the end.


Also opening wide on March 20 is Searchlight’s Ready or Not 2: Here I Come from Radio Silence filmmakers aka Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillet, with a current outlook of $11M+. While we always say, “It’s still early in the movie’s campaign,” that’s true because the sequel to the 2019 horror movie won’t scream fully until its world premiere at SXSW in Austin on March 13. Searchlight has held early screenings for the movie, which is an excellent sign and an anomaly before a big SXSW world premiere. It’s clear the distributor wants to get the great word out.


The sequel, which returns Samara Weaving after surviving a deadly game with her former husband and in-laws, also stars Nestor Carbonell, Shawn Hatosy, Sarah Michelle Gellar, Elijah Wood and Kathryn Newton. Weaving’s Grace faces an all-new game of kill with an Illuminati set of characters. First choice is best with men over 25 and women under 25. The first movie was a late-August release in 2019, debuting to $8M and doing a 3.5x multiple at the domestic B.O. with $28M. Worldwide finaled at $57.1M against a $6M production cost before P&A.

March 20 is a peak spring break weekend before the April 3-5 Easter frame, with 38% K-12 schools out along with 37% colleges, per Comscore.
 
That should read “harder to break even”.

It’s a common conflation to think that being a hit (i.e. popular with audiences) is the same as financial success/profit. And I wish it would go away.

It’s very very possible to be a loss making hit.

Just ask any Hollywood accountant.
 
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As of March 5, 2026, Crime 101 has grossed $32 million in the United States and Canada, and $27 million in other territories, for a worldwide total of $59 million.
 
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With Amazon’s $2.2 trillion market cap, competitors often joke that the behemoth could count a write-down in the hundreds of millions of dollars as a rounding error. Yes, Amazon’s deep pockets make it easier to absorb losses. But no studio wants to be associated with a string of bombs. Sources say there’s internal anxiety after “Crime 101” didn’t break out and “Melania” was a costly flop. So executives are putting more pressure on “Project Hail Mary” to change the narrative around Amazon’s movie efforts.
Unlike other streamers, Amazon MGM has endeared itself to cinema owners by prioritizing the big screen. Netflix doesn’t adhere to traditional windows. Meanwhile Apple has essentially disappeared after pledging to commit $1 billion a year to theatrical. Following several big-budget bombs like Martin Scorsese’s 2023 historical drama “Killers of the Flower Moon” and Matthew Vaughn’s 2024 spy thriller “Argylle,” it had just one film, Brad Pitt’s racing adventure “F1,” in 2025, with nothing on schedule for 2026.
Exhibitors don’t want Amazon MGM to get discouraged by growing pains. Cinema operators have long complained about a decrease in the volume of new releases. So Amazon’s efforts are especially helpful as revenues lag 20% behind pre-pandemic years.
“Amazon is building a studio where you can take risks. That’s really important to us in the business,” says Gregory Quinn, managing partner of Puerto Rico-based Caribbean Cinemas. “They’re going to make movies that work and don’t work. At some point, it’s going to pay off.”
Box office watchers are optimistic that October’s psychosexual thriller “Verity,” adapted from Colleen Hoover’s hit novel, will become a breakout à la “The Housemaid.” Dakota Johnson and Anne Hathaway star in the film, which carries a relatively lean $40 million price tag. Amazon’s 2026 slate also includes June’s toy-based “Masters of the Universe,” September’s heist adventure “How to Rob a Bank” and November’s sports drama “Madden” with Nicolas Cage.
“For their first year with a full slate, you can’t expect them to knock it out of the park,” Quinn says. “But it’s a full slate. It’s a diverse slate. We’ll take that.”
 
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