And the Next Cancelled Show is...

[bigdaddy]

If NBC ends up canceling Blacklist in its entirety, it would have 97 episodes (both main and spinoff) for off-network syndication reruns. (Assuming season 4 of Blacklist is a regular 22-epsiode season).

But NBC doesn't give a damn about syndication, they don't own the show and don't get a cent from reruns. So WB (Who I think owns it) will need to fight, and I think they will.

My guess is that Blindside will be thrown out, like Revolution, big hit one year, dead the next.

 

[jayceee]

But NBC doesn't give a damn about syndication, they don't own the show and don't get a cent from reruns. So WB (Who I think owns it) will need to fight, and I think they will.

It appears to be Sony.

With a hypothetical season 5 of Blacklist, the question is who exactly is paying for the show's production costs and how much is it. One concession could be Sony bending over backwards by paying for most (or all) of the costs, and not NBC. If it's the other way around, NBC might not be so inclined to continue on with a season 5.

Another unknown is how long are the contracts originally signed by Spader, Boone, etc ... If their contracts expire after season 4, then the actors would also have to make concessions for a season 5. They probably won't be in a position to bargain hard, since the show's ratings are already the lowest on NBC.


In terms of recent precedents of a season 5 renewal of a show produced by an outside studio, there was the CBS show "Person of Interest" which appears to be owned by Warner. According to CBS' head honcho Les Moonves, he asserts CBS just "broke even" on season 5 of "Person of Interest". In contrast, Mooves also asserts that the CBS owned show Elementary made $80 million over season 4.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/cbs-ceo-says-netflix-remains-895681

Whether NBC would be willing to only "break even" on a season 5 show, remains to be seen. (This isn't a respective apples-to-apples comparison between CBS and NBC + Warner and Sony).

 

[Jax]

If NBC never moved the show in the first place from its original season 1 slot then they could of had a 5-7 season hit for a 10pm slot. I think Blacklist will get some sort of a 5th season and Netflix may play a part in that because they pay quite a pretty penny to have it on their service and like complete shows over incomplete ones so Sony will make it worth NBC to air at least 13 episodes of a 5th season.

 

[jayceee]

My guess is that Blindside will be thrown out, like Revolution, big hit one year, dead the next.

I suspect this may very well be the case, if ratings continue going down the toilet. (In spite of the current 8pm time slot).

At this point, I suspect ratings would nosedive even further if the show is abruptly moved into a 9pm or 10pm time slot.

 

[jayceee]

If NBC never moved the show in the first place from its original season 1 slot then they could of had a 5-7 season hit for a 10pm slot. I think Blacklist will get some sort of a 5th season and Netflix may play a part in that because they pay quite a pretty penny to have it on their service and like complete shows over incomplete ones so Sony will make it worth NBC to air at least 13 episodes of a 5th season.

Good point.

Currently the only publicly announced off-network syndication deal this show has, is with Netflix. (This was done back in mid-2014 after the first season).

https://deadline.com/2014/08/the-blacklist-netflix-deal-2-million-825836/
http://streamdaily.tv/2014/10/27/bulk-buying-is-out-exclusivity-is-in-svod-syndication-report/

It appears to be an exclusive deal with Netflix paying around $2 million per episode. At this point, so far I haven't seen Blacklist reruns on any other current cable channels. (I would certainly be watching semi-daily reruns, if they were on a basic cable I subscribe to).

When exactly this exclusivity deal expires, is currently unknown to non-insiders.


When season 4 ends this coming May 2017, I strongly suspect the issue for Netflix is whether the storyline is "complete" without any cliffhangers and/or major unresolved issues (ie. Who is Keen's actual real father?).

My guess is if Sony and the show's producers strongly suspect NBC is not going to renew the show, then they might possibly make two different versions of the final season 4 episode, in the event the show gets a "surprise" renewal.

IMHO, so far I've been finding season 4 to be kinda boring and dumb so far.

 

[bigdaddy]

If NBC never moved the show in the first place from its original season 1 slot then they could of had a 5-7 season hit for a 10pm slot.

That could also be said about Fringe which had like 10 million viewers at It's Monday time slot and like 4.5 when Fox moved it to Thursday in season 2.

I honestly think the shows ratings would go down the drain anyways. It's the 4th season and the ads I have seen are still about who her dad is?! Do people even care anymore? I know I don't, but I have only seen like the first 5 episodes and stopped caring.

 

[jayceee]

I honestly think the shows ratings would go down the drain anyways. It's the 4th seson and the ads I have seen are still about who her dad is?! Do people even care anymore? I know I don't but I have only seen like the first 5 episodes and stopped caring.

I thought the show turned into a farce, with the "wedding" at the end of season 3. (With the subsequent silly "soap opera" style of coming back).

 

[jayceee]

In the case of NBC vs Netflix in regard to a hypothetical season 5 of The Blacklist, I strongly suspect NBC doesn't give a damn what Netflix's issues are, unless Netflix is directly paying for the production of a season 5.

(ie. "No pay, no say").

 

[bigdaddy]

Yeah Netflix would have to talk to Sony, who owns the show, about pratingly paying I think.

Sony is a good company, they fought for the return of Community's creator. They also fought for a correct amount of episodes to end Breaking Bad because AMC was being a pain in the ass.

 

[jayceee]

But if Netflix and Sony are paying entirely for a hypothetical season 5 of The Blacklist, then in principle they can just cut out the NBC middleman if NBC has already canceled the show.

No need for more middlemen sucking up cash in the process.

 

[jayceee]

Another scenario is NBC dumping the Blacklist: Redemption spinoff without ever playing any episodes, and canceling Blacklist after season 4.

In such a scenario, wonder if it would be possible for Netflix to buy out the old contract for Redemption and make it an exclusive Netflix show.


Judging by the way tv shows can be canceled abruptly, I wouldn't be surprised if there are clauses in almost every tv show legal contracts, which gives the tv network the absolute right to stop production and/or not air any episodes.

 

[jayceee]

Sony is a good company, they fought for the return of Community's creator. They also fought for a correct amount of episodes to end Breaking Bad because AMC was being a pain in the ass.

All this ^ happened under the previous regime, before the infamous Sony hack in late 2014.

The question now is whether the current regime (after resignations), is any "good" at fighting for their shows.

 

[bigdaddy]

But if Netflix and Sony are paying entirely for a hypothetical season 5 of The Blacklist, then in principle they can just cut out the NBC middleman if NBC has already canceled the show.

No need for more middlemen sucking up cash in the process.

Gotham's ratings on Fox aren't that great, I'm not even sure it's a Fox show, I doubt it, but Netflix made a hell of a deal to buy the streaming rights for like 1.5 million before the show even aired. TV is really crazy today and that is probably the only reason that garbage Gotham is on the air is because of Netflix.

 

[jayceee]

Gotham's ratings on Fox aren't that great, I'm not even sure it's a Fox show, I doubt it, but Netflix made a hell of a deal to buy the streaming rights for like 1.5 million before the show even aired. TV is really crazy today and that is probably the only reason that garbage Gotham is on the air is because of Netflix.

In spite of the show being kinda crappy, Gotham's ratings are actually somewhere middle-of-the-road for Fox. Many other current Fox shows which are well below Gotham's ratings.

http://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/fox-tv-show-2016-2017-season-ratings/


How much bearing Netflix has on Fox's broadcast decisions, I have no idea. Though I strongly suspect probably nothing, unless Netflix is paying directly for the production.

 

[Jax]

The Blacklist spin off was a bad ideas from the start, if the ratings are low for the parent show why would they be any higher for the spinoff, which generally have less of an audience than the parent show historically.

 

[jayceee]

The Blacklist spin off was a bad ideas from the start, if the ratings are low for the parent show why would they be any higher for the spinoff, which generally have less of an audience than the parent show historically.

I agree. The spinoff seems like a bad decision now.


During most of the 2015-2016 broadcast year, Blacklist was somewhere middle of the road in terms of ratings on NBC.

http://tvseriesfinale.com/tv-show/nbc-2015-16-season-ratings-38056/

(Blindspot had the highest scripted show ratings during 2015-2016).

 

[jayceee]

Also NBC has not abruptly canceled any scripted shows over the past several months.

There's still tons of other shows in NBC's pipeline for this season (or the summer), with no official starting dates yet.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016–17_United_States_network_television_schedule#NBC


Produced by Universal

- Shades of Blue (season 2)
- Chicago Justice
- Law & Order: True Crime
- Great News
- Marlon
- Midnight, Texas


Produced by Warner

- Powerless
- Trial & Error


Produced by Sony

- Blacklist: Redemption


How many of these will turn out to be big hits, is unknown. Though my guess is NBC is hoping the new Law & Order + Chicago franchise shows do well enough to warrant a second season.

 

[Scout101]

Next up, The CW has declined the back nine on No Tomorrow and Frequency, so they'll be done at 13 episodes. Doesn't mean they're completely dead, but considering the ratings, that's the likely outcome.

Too bad, kinda enjoyed No Tomorrow. Quirky/fun.

 

[Aragorn]

The Odd Couple isn't getting any more episodes after the first 13. Not an official cancellation, but it might as well be.

 

[bigdaddy]

The Odd Couple isn't getting any more episodes after the first 13. Not an official cancellation, but it might as well be.

It has never gotten more than 13 episodes.

CBS really seems to hate that show yet kept it around this long.