The facts of this matter are obscured by the subjective viewpoints of all the witnesses. Fighting Bajorans of course want to exaggerate the significance of their resistance (and collaborators might believe they saved the planet, and abstainers might feel their non-involvement prevented disaster, but they won't strut their stuff - not because the resistance would have been of greater significance than the other forms of coping, but because when armed people make a lot of noise, unarmed people do wisely not to). But others would be biased, too. Dukat certainly sees things through the glasses of somebody tasked with subjugating the Bajorans, but he was merely a pawn in Central Command's game and did not know what the Union really wanted out of Bajor.
In terms of more or less objective facts, we're told time and again that the Cardassians came to Bajor for its riches, more specifically its mineral riches. We're also told those riches were gone by the time of the retreat. On that basis alone, resistance might have been without any significance. Or, rather, its existence justified certain Cardassian actions, but its absence would not have meant continuation of the occupation.
Certainly the old war with the Federation had no immediate effect on Bajor's status - the occupation went on for years after de facto peace was attained some time before "The Wounded". But the war seems to have purged the neighborhood of Bajor of other Cardassian-occupied territories; planets near Bajor are often indicated to be pro-Cardassian but never part of the Union. We might deduce that the Federation was pissed off at the Cardassians and relatively easily stripped them of most off-homeworld possessions, but stopped short of taking "back" Bajor because they knew this planet was a "crown jewel" Cardassia would not relinquish without a bloodshed, and nobody wanted a bloodshed. Bajor really was the last stop before Cardassia Prime itself, judging by multiple references to these two systems being basically immediate neighbors.
The failed attempt at a rematch in "Chain of Command" did seem to immediately precede the Central Command orders to withdraw from Bajor. Possibly Bajor would otherwise have been retained as part of the Union even after losing all its mineral worth, but the utter failure of the Central Command in the TNG adventure made it lose favor and be trampled by the other parts of the Cardassian government triad. The orders to withdraw might have been punishment imposed on the Central Command for its fruitless, indeed humiliatingly backfiring adventurism. (And when the wormhole was discovered immediately afterwards, those issuing the orders were in turn humiliated!)
Sure it’s a beautiful world with lots of resources - but you’ve got to deal with all these crazy provincial religious people who, while weak, could very well stab you in the night or blow up your house at any time.
Let's remember that those being hurt by guerrilla action are very seldom in a position to order or even suggest a withdrawal. Indeed, if local freedom fighters kill a lot of occupying troops and their support forces and families, it's a good thing for the occupying force, because it justifies the continuation of the occupation, now complete with harsh punitive measures. Making the occupying soldiers scared is not going to make the occupation a) go away or b) become easier to tolerate - quite the opposite!
Timo Saloniemi
