Malaysian airliner feared lost..

[chrisspringob]

As far as who else besides the pilots would have had the technical know how for this…..well, the authorities have also been investigating this guy:

http://www.straitstimes.com/breakin...-probe-flight-engineer-missing-mh370-20140317

Regarding the two stolen European passports, I think they did identify who those people were, who were traveling on the passports, and it was two Iranian asylum seekers. But Wikipedia notes a third phantom passenger on the plane, where the passenger manifest lists a Chinese national's passport number, yet the guy never got on the plane, and the manifest matches that passport number to someone else's name:

http://www.sify.com/news/missing-ma...-aircraft-news-international-odjuuKihbdg.html

I don't know if they ever figured out who, if anyone, got on board the plane in place of this guy.

 

[Mr Awe]

The Daily Telegraph says that investigators don't believe this was an accident:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...de-mission-theory-of-MH370-investigators.html

The team investigating the Boeing 777’s disappearance believe no malfunction or fire was capable of causing the aircraft’s unusual flight or the disabling of its communications system before it veered wildly off course on a seven-hour silent flight into the sea. An analysis of the flight’s routing, signalling and communications shows that it was flown “in a rational way”.

An official source told The Telegraph that investigators believe “this has been a deliberate act by someone on board who had to have had the detailed knowledge to do what was done ... Nothing is emerging that points to motive.”

Yep, gets to my earlier points about probabilities. To have a serious accident that causes a bunch of systems to go down yet leaves the plane totally flyable, and the crew able to fly it, is just unlikely. There was always evidence of humans controlling the plane. A major course/altitude change to fly over the penisula and another course/altitude change to reach the southern arc.

Further, factor in the timing. Accidents can happen at any time but the probability varies. Higher at takeoffs and landings and lower at the time that events took place for this flight.

Conversely, the probability of deliberate acts also varies, and the probability would shoot up between the handoff between control towers. And, that's exactly when this happened. There was no control tower actively watching this plane at that exact moment and that's when the accident occurred.

Probability-wise, it's more likely to be deliberate than an accident.

You combine the unlikeliness of the timing and the unlikeliness of the nature of an accident that could describe all known facts, and it's extremely unlikely. Not impossible, but surely a deliberate act is more likely.

Mr Awe

 

[Mr Awe]

If it is suicide then that still doesn’t quite explain everything. Could one person acting alone take control of a plane? I was reading an interview with someone experienced as cabin crew yesterday, and she said that even though the cockpits are secure, cabin crew have ways of getting inside.

I doubt that anyone would be able to enter the cockpit by force. If fact, there was a flight in Africa (I believe) where one crewmeber deliberately crashed the plane. The other crewmember tried and failed to gain access to the cockpit.

The trouble is no theory, from the wackiest to the most rational, quite explains everything. I think when (IF!) what happened is determined it will probably sit closer to the rational end of the spectrum.

Actually, a suicide by one of the crew who either wanted to hide the fact or go out in a blaze of mystery totally explains everything. Said crewnenber locks the cockpit when the other crewmember takes a bathroom break or something. Diverts plane and flies it to a very hard to search, remote region, with deep water.

Unbeknownst to him, even though the ACARS is off, there is still away to narrow down the location of the plain. That type of location had never been done before so it's valid to assume that he though he hid his tracks.

Mr Awe

 

[doubleohfive]

Actually, a suicide by one of the crew who either wanted to hide the fact or go out in a blaze of mystery totally explains everything. Said crewnenber locks the cockpit when the other crewmember takes a bathroom break or something. Diverts plane and flies it to a very hard to search, remote region, with deep water.

Unbeknownst to him, even though the ACARS is off, there is still away to narrow down the location of the plain. That type of location had never been done before so it's valid to assume that he though he hid his tracks.

Mr Awe

That makes no sense. Why would someone who wants to commit suicide try to do so in such a way? Why not just crash the jet and get it over with?

I'm with Starkers -- certainly there is much to base our speculations on, but if/when the truth is revealed, it will likely hew much closer toward rational rather than sensational explanations.

 

[Captrek]

I can imagine that flying a plane out over the ocean until you run out of fuel might be a reasonably peaceful way to go for some people... just not a 777 with 238 other people onboard.

 

[Mr Awe]

Actually, a suicide by one of the crew who either wanted to hide the fact or go out in a blaze of mystery totally explains everything. Said crewnenber locks the cockpit when the other crewmember takes a bathroom break or something. Diverts plane and flies it to a very hard to search, remote region, with deep water.

Unbeknownst to him, even though the ACARS is off, there is still away to narrow down the location of the plain. That type of location had never been done before so it's valid to assume that he though he hid his tracks.

Mr Awe

That makes no sense. Why would someone who wants to commit suicide try to do so in such a way? Why not just crash the jet and get it over with?

Seriously?! Everyone is going to commit suicide the same way just because that makes sense to you? Someone in that position is just going to be in a totally different frame of mind than you.

But, it's also possible that he programmed the flight computer and then depressurized the plane thus killing himself that way while the plane flew on. Just because he's on a plane doesn't mean that those onboard died during the impact.

Mr Awe

 

[Trekker4747]

Actually, a suicide by one of the crew who either wanted to hide the fact or go out in a blaze of mystery totally explains everything. Said crewnenber locks the cockpit when the other crewmember takes a bathroom break or something. Diverts plane and flies it to a very hard to search, remote region, with deep water.

Unbeknownst to him, even though the ACARS is off, there is still away to narrow down the location of the plain. That type of location had never been done before so it's valid to assume that he though he hid his tracks.

Mr Awe

That makes no sense. Why would someone who wants to commit suicide try to do so in such a way? Why not just crash the jet and get it over with?

Seriously?! Everyone is going to commit suicide the same way just because that makes sense to you? Someone in that position is just going to be in a totally different frame of mind than you.

But, it's also possible that he programmed the flight computer and then depressurized the plane thus killing himself that way while the plane flew on. Just because he's on a plane doesn't mean that those onboard died during the impact.

Mr Awe

It's possible but there's always the "simplest answer" or "easiest route" way to look at it.

If the pilot wanted to commit suicide it makes no sense for him to do this elaborate thing of reprogramming the flight computer for the plane to get lost during the exact moment after the handoff but before checking in with the next controller and everything else we know, or think, happened here as opposed to just putting the plane into a dive and crashing into the ocean.

Again, yes it's "possible" to have this elaborate plan in committing suicide in order to... I dunno leave a mystery for everyone else afterward? Speak your mind outloud but see that the voice-recorder is likely never found? It doesn't make much sense. Not that any hijacking conspiracy theories are making much sense either.

If the pilot wanted to commit suicide why didn't he just simply crash the plane as other pilots who've committed suicide in the past have done? Why the whole show and routine?

 

[Captrek]

An acquaintance of the captain has openly speculated that the captain took the plane for a joyride.

 

[Asbo Zaprudder]

Well this is weird:

http://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/lat...octored-photos-of-two-MH370-passengers-emerge

 

[Trekker4747]

I don't think a British tabloid is the best source of information.

 

[BigJake]

An acquaintance has speculated! Look, a photographic error! Quick, someone get a quote from a psychic, we must keep this manic speculation going at all costs!

 

[Mr Awe]

That makes no sense. Why would someone who wants to commit suicide try to do so in such a way? Why not just crash the jet and get it over with?

Seriously?! Everyone is going to commit suicide the same way just because that makes sense to you? Someone in that position is just going to be in a totally different frame of mind than you.

But, it's also possible that he programmed the flight computer and then depressurized the plane thus killing himself that way while the plane flew on. Just because he's on a plane doesn't mean that those onboard died during the impact.

Mr Awe

It's possible but there's always the "simplest answer" or "easiest route" way to look at it.

If the pilot wanted to commit suicide it makes no sense for him to do this elaborate thing of reprogramming the flight computer

Actually, it does if he wants to hide the fact of what he's done. And, it's not particularly elaborate to program the flight computer and then depressurize the plane. Very simple for a pilot.

And, as others have pointed out, he may well have found it peaceful flying off into the sunrise.

Mr Awe

 

[Roger Wilco]

But why take all those people with him into his death? Surely he could have rented a smaller plane during his free time and do it alone.

 

[Robert Maxwell]

But why take all those people with him into his death? Surely he could have rented a smaller plane during his free time and do it alone.

Why do some people go on shooting sprees before killing themselves? Sometimes you just want to take a bunch of random people to the grave with you.

Not saying it was suicide, but it's hardly outlandish for a suicidal person to want to take others with them.

 

[chrisspringob]

Over 100 possible pieces of debris located in satellite images, but none yet recovered by the ships in the area:

http://abcnews.go.com/International/story?id=23060860

But why take all those people with him into his death? Surely he could have rented a smaller plane during his free time and do it alone.

Why do some people go on shooting sprees before killing themselves? Sometimes you just want to take a bunch of random people to the grave with you.

Not saying it was suicide, but it's hardly outlandish for a suicidal person to want to take others with them.

Also, even if it was an unusual thing to do, what is the alternative explanation? I don't see another theory that makes any more sense than murder-suicide.

Whatever the ultimate explanation is, it was a very rare event that occurred, so it's a matter of which of the improbable explanations is least improbable.

 

[doubleohfive]

Actually, a suicide by one of the crew who either wanted to hide the fact or go out in a blaze of mystery totally explains everything. Said crewnenber locks the cockpit when the other crewmember takes a bathroom break or something. Diverts plane and flies it to a very hard to search, remote region, with deep water.

Unbeknownst to him, even though the ACARS is off, there is still away to narrow down the location of the plain. That type of location had never been done before so it's valid to assume that he though he hid his tracks.

Mr Awe

That makes no sense. Why would someone who wants to commit suicide try to do so in such a way? Why not just crash the jet and get it over with?

Seriously?! Everyone is going to commit suicide the same way just because that makes sense to you? Someone in that position is just going to be in a totally different frame of mind than you.

But, it's also possible that he programmed the flight computer and then depressurized the plane thus killing himself that way while the plane flew on. Just because he's on a plane doesn't mean that those onboard died during the impact.

Mr Awe

Settle down, Beavis. The part of my post you oh so cleverly omitted was the point I was trying to make - that despite all the mystery, when the truth is revealed it may well be the simpler of explanations and not some sensationalist thing from all the wild speculation going on.

 

[Mr Awe]

That makes no sense. Why would someone who wants to commit suicide try to do so in such a way? Why not just crash the jet and get it over with?

Seriously?! Everyone is going to commit suicide the same way just because that makes sense to you? Someone in that position is just going to be in a totally different frame of mind than you.

But, it's also possible that he programmed the flight computer and then depressurized the plane thus killing himself that way while the plane flew on. Just because he's on a plane doesn't mean that those onboard died during the impact.

Mr Awe

Settle down, Beavis. The part of my post you oh so cleverly omitted was the point I was trying to make - that despite all the mystery, when the truth is revealed it may well be the simpler of explanations and not some sensationalist thing from all the wild speculation going on.

No need to get rude.

I'm simplying pointing out that there is no one-way to commit suicide. Let's face it, for known cases of suicides, each person comes up with their own way to do it. Various methods. Various degrees of publicness (private to large scale plans).

Shoot, perhaps he did nose-dive the plane into the Southern Indian ocean. If not, there are other simple methods he could've used.

And, I presented a suicide scenario because it seems to address a lot of the facts.

And, I did address your point about the "simpler explanation." I did not skip it. YOU missed the major point that a magic bullet accident that took out swathes of equipment but left the plane areodynamically sound and able to fly a normal range given the fuel load is just not the simpler explanation. Especially given evidence of human inputs! And, especially given the timing of it that occurred during the mechanically safest part of the flight but at the point when human intervention would be most likely.

The magic bullet accident in combination with the perfect timing and active crew is the more complicated, elaborate, and less likely scenario.

That doesn't mean that it can't be an accident, just less likely to be one.

Obviously, you're free to disagree, but resorting to name calling makes you look bad.

Mr Awe

 

[J.T.B.]

YOU missed the major point that a magic bullet accident that took out swathes of equipment but left the plane areodynamically sound and able to fly a normal range given the fuel load is just not the simpler explanation.

That implies enough knowledge of long distance 777 flight operations, known possible problems and possible unforeseen problems to declare what's a "magic bullet" theory and what's not. Something professionals and experts avoid doing.

Sometimes disastrous things happen that were never foreseen, things which would have seemed unexplainable before. Look at how many millions of hours 737s flew before the rudder malfunction issue was discovered in the '90s. Despite having the CVR, FDR and access to the whole crash site, the '91 United crash in Colorado Springs remained unsolved for many years, until the NTSB had data from more incidents.

Terrorism, suicide, espionage and so on have great advantages for the layman, because they are easy to understand without requiring the massive amounts of obscure technical knowledge needed to fully understand some of the most complex machines ever invented, or the extensive, intricate and involved procedures that humans use to operate them. Very few experienced captains and accident investigators are prepared to rule mechanical or or procedural failures "magic bullet" theories based on what is presently known.

 

[Mr Awe]

YOU missed the major point that a magic bullet accident that took out swathes of equipment but left the plane areodynamically sound and able to fly a normal range given the fuel load is just not the simpler explanation.

That implies enough knowledge of long distance 777 flight operations, known possible problems and possible unforeseen problems to declare what's a "magic bullet" theory and what's not. Something professionals and experts avoid doing.

No, actually I first heard the term "magic bullet accident" from a 777 pilot.

Human intervention is actually a much simpler explanation for the specific set of evidence (at this point). To find mechanical problems that fit all the known facts is actually more convoluted.

That doesn't mean it must be due to human intervention, just that the probabilities favor that scenario at this point.

Mr Awe

 

[J.T.B.]

No, actually I first heard the term "magic bullet accident" from a 777 pilot.

Very well, I'll amend that to "most professionals and experts."

Human intervention is actually a much simpler explanation for the specific set of evidence (at this point). To find mechanical problems that fit all the known facts is actually more convoluted.

That doesn't mean it must be due to human intervention, just that the probabilities favor that scenario at this point.

Despite what's said in the endless theorizing based on incomplete media reports, what is known now is still not inconsistent with pilots trying to fly the aircraft after some catastrophe, which could also have affected communications systems.