STID "tracking" for $85-90 million opening [U.S. box office]

[The Transformed Man]

I think a lot of this is being overstated right now. In fact Into Darknes is performing almost identically/slightly better than Trek 2009:

1. Trek 2009 performed better than Into Darkness on Friday, however Into Darkness officially opened Thursday so much of the intial demand for the film was met Thursday reducing its Friday take.

2. Since Friday Into Darknes has outperformed Trek 2009 every day. Saturday saw a 24% box office increase vs. 2009's 1% increase. Sunday that number dropped 19.9% vs. 2009's 22.7%. Additionally Into Darkness performed better on Monday as well.

If it can continue to match or come close to Star Trek's legs that'll be a great achievement. It's the prospect that its legs will start to weaken, as so many sequels do, that could lead to a gross tens of millions short of Star Trek domestically. That's why studios hope for an increase in the opening weekend for a sequel.

Reports of the film's demise have been greatly exaggerated.

I agree and I haven't stated that it's met or will meet its demise.

Sure Paramount would have liked a bigger opening, but as I contended in another post, I think a $250-260 million gross is the max ANY Star Trek film could ever achieve. Sure it's a tentpole franchise, but it nowhere near as popular with mainstream audiences as the Marvel films, Star Wars, or Transformers.

The same number of tickets sold as Star Trek would lead to a higher gross than $260 million today. Trek isn't as popular as the biggest Marvel films, but it's bigger than others. Star Trek grossed more than Thor, Captain America, and X-Men: First Class, for example, in the domestic market.

I understand your point, but the film is simply performing virtually identically to Trek 2009. This may just be the "model" for these Trek films with solid, but unremarkable openings, but steady legs.

The thing that will ultimately determine legs here is if Darkness can start recouping some of those numbers of female and younger viewers which didn't show up this week. if it can, then I can easily see this film holding on well into June.

Yancy

 

[Out Of My Vulcan Mind]

I understand your point, but the film is simply performing virtually identically to Trek 2009. This may just be the "model" for these Trek films with solid, but unremarkable openings, but steady legs.

Hopefully that's the case.

 

[CorporalClegg]

I'm curious to know if there are any 3D specific numbers.

I saw a later 3D show Saturday night. A strange thing happened, though: my theatre was only about half-full. However, across the hall there was a standard showing that had a start-time ten minutes later. It was packed. And judging by the line, I think the theatre might have overbooked.

 

[Out Of My Vulcan Mind]

I'm curious to know if there are any 3D specific numbers.

I saw a later 3D show Saturday night. A strange thing happened, though: my theatre was only about half-full. However, across the hall there was a standard showing that had a start-time ten minutes later. It was packed. And judging by the line, I think the theatre might have overbooked.

16% of the opening weekend revenue was from IMAX and 45% was from 3D and IMAX.

 

[Kpnuts]

I still think Star Trek had novelty on it's side, and people were curious about nuTrek, and so it therefore over-performed at the domestic box office. To have Into Darkness doing nearly as well, if not better is a big achievement now that the novelty has worn off, and four years have passed.

 

[Spock/Uhura Fan]

Yeah, but it was a better film in spite of its issues. Quite enjoyable, towards the end even touching, and I'll be getting it on DVD. I can't say the same for STID.

Hooboy, that is certainly a matter of opinion. I found every attempt at pathos in IM3 to be incredibly forced and ineffective, which is surprising because of how well it did work in IM1. Hell, it was more believable in IM2 than in IM3.

Don't get me wrong, I enjoyed the hell out of IM3 when I was in the theater, but it left me hollow once I left, and didn't stick with me at all. Knd of like the fortune cookie.

Yep, yup, same goes for what you think. You have a right to your opinion, but IM3 is definitely better than IM2 to me. Not better than IM1, but good and enjoyable. It never felt tired.

STID had me sitting there just waiting for it to end. Considering the fact that I actually actively waited for this film (and that's not something I do), imagine my profound disappointment. I'm glad you got some enjoyment out of it, though, maybe even enough for the both of us.

There will be a third film.

Anyone who calls STiD a "failure" needs to chug a bottle of Reality. See your doctor for details.

Don't get me wrong, I enjoyed the hell out of IM3 when I was in the theater, but it left me hollow once I left, and didn't stick with me at all.

This is pretty much how I've felt about all the Marvel movies except for the first Iron Man and Captain America.

I'm with you. Quite frankly, I thought IM3 down-right sucked, and, dare I say it, thought it was even worse than IM2.

It was especially disappointing because Pearce and Kingsley are both in my top ten favorite actors and thought using both the way they did was a waste.

To each their own. IM3 had its issues but they got the main things right enough for me to overlook them. STID, not so much.

I think a lot of this is being overstated right now. In fact Into Darknes is performing almost identically/slightly better than Trek 2009:

1. Trek 2009 performed better than Into Darkness on Friday, however Into Darkness officially opened Thursday so much of the intial demand for the film was met Thursday reducing its Friday take.

2. Since Friday Into Darknes has outperformed Trek 2009 every day. Saturday saw a 24% box office increase vs. 2009's 1% increase. Sunday that number dropped 19.9% vs. 2009's 22.7%. Additionally Into Darkness performed better on Monday as well.

If it can continue to match or come close to Star Trek's legs that'll be a great achievement. It's the prospect that its legs will start to weaken, as so many sequels do, that could lead to a gross tens of millions short of Star Trek domestically. That's why studios hope for an increase in the opening weekend for a sequel.

Reports of the film's demise have been greatly exaggerated.

I agree and I haven't stated that it's met or will meet its demise.

Sure Paramount would have liked a bigger opening, but as I contended in another post, I think a $250-260 million gross is the max ANY Star Trek film could ever achieve. Sure it's a tentpole franchise, but it nowhere near as popular with mainstream audiences as the Marvel films, Star Wars, or Transformers.

The same number of tickets sold as Star Trek would lead to a higher gross than $260 million today. Trek isn't as popular as the biggest Marvel films, but it's bigger than others. Star Trek grossed more than Thor, Captain America, and X-Men: First Class, for example, in the domestic market.

And it deserved to. ST09 was better than those films, imo.

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Suggesting that the reason one film grosses more than another is because it's "better" is so subjective a judgment as to be completely meaningless. I wouldn't say that ST 2009 is a "better" movie than Captain America, although I liked it better because I'm a Trek fan.

 

[Dream]

BTC's prediction for this weekend is Fast 6 at 100M for the 4-Day weekend, Hangover 3 is still at 100M for the 5-Day, EPIC is at 40M for 4 day

3 Day holds - TREK2 38.6, IRNM3 21.5, GATSB 14.4

http://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3&pid=234460

 

[Spock/Uhura Fan]

Suggesting that the reason one film grosses more than another is because it's "better" is so subjective a judgment as to be completely meaningless. I wouldn't say that ST 2009 is a "better" movie than Captain America, although I liked it better because I'm a Trek fan.

Okay, well, "imo" stands for "in my opinion." Next time I'll just use the words, I guess.

 

[Neumann]

Who is predicting such a steep dive for the trek movie? 38.6 is quite low. I would expect 43

 

[Dream]

Who is predicting such a steep dive for the trek movie? 38.6 is quite low. I would expect 43

That's for the three day, it will increase for the four day weekend.

 

[The Transformed Man]

Who is predicting such a steep dive for the trek movie? 38.6 is quite low. I would expect 43

That would be less than 50% down from the previous week, that would actually be an exceptional number. Considering it's a 4 day weekend, a $38.6 million gross for Fri-Sun is more than reasonable. Monday would probably bring in another $7 million or so. That would be a great weekend.

Yancy

 

[Dream]

Who is predicting such a steep dive for the trek movie? 38.6 is quite low. I would expect 43

That would be less than 50% down from the previous week, that would actually be an exceptional number.

Yeah, anything below a 50% would be a good thing. Blockbusters tend to drop at least 60% in their second weekend. At this point STID needs low drops every weekend.

 

[The Transformed Man]

Who is predicting such a steep dive for the trek movie? 38.6 is quite low. I would expect 43

That would be less than 50% down from the previous week, that would actually be an exceptional number.

Yeah, anything below a 50% would be a good thing. Blockbusters tend to drop at least 60% in their second weekend. At this point STID needs low drops every weekend.

The 3 day drop needs to be in the 40% range since this is the Labor Day weekend for it to show it might have legs. The 4 day total should be closer to 30%


Yancy

 

[Out Of My Vulcan Mind]

The 3 day drop needs to be in the 40% range since this is the Labor Day weekend for it to show it might have legs. The 4 day total should be closer to 30%

Memorial Day weekend.

 

[The Transformed Man]

The 3 day drop needs to be in the 40% range since this is the Labor Day weekend for it to show it might have legs. The 4 day total should be closer to 30%

Memorial Day weekend.

D'oh

 

[Relayer1]

I didn't even realise Fast and Furious was that big ! Obviously they wouldn't make 6 with no audience, but I don't think I know anyone who has seen one of them...

I've just purchased the Bluray set of F&F 1-5. Should find out what all the fuss is about...

 

[Neumann]

back on 09 trek had a 38% drop on its second weekend. We have to yet assess if this movie is in fact far more front loaded than the previous one or not. because as of today, with a limited sample of days we have no honest clue. Does it have legs?

 

[Out Of My Vulcan Mind]

The biggest new live action release from the weekend prior to Memorial Day weekend has tended to drop about 45% for the following 4-day weekend. Battleship, POTC: On Stranger Tides, and Prince Caspian all had 4-day second weekend drops in that range. That's calculated from the previous 3-day weekend. Angels & Demons dropped just under 41% for the 4-day holiday weekend. STiD will hopefully see a drop of no more than 40% for the long weekend, which would give it a weekend take of around $42 million.

back on 09 trek had a 38% drop on its second weekend.

Star Trek dropped 42.8% in its second weekend.

 

[Neumann]

True, my bad!

Lets hope then, it does achieve those numbers.