SpaceX is a go for April 30th: 1st commercial launch to space station

[Hyperspace05]

Re: SpaceX is a go for April 30th: 1st commercial launch to space stat

Those have to happen if Musk has any intention of fulfilling some of the things he has said so far. He is repeating over and over that one of his goals is Mars, and while Falcon Heavy can carry Martian payloads, it doesn't quite cut it. This and the other things that he have been mumbling are strongly suggesting that he intends to work on those (or similar ones) once he gets the opportunity.

That doesn't suggest they have any need for a heavy lift vehicle. Quite the opposite in fact, Musk probably envisions a spaceflight architecture based around the reusable Falcon 9H and dragon-derived orbiters. There isn't a whole lot you could do with a single HLV that couldn't be more efficiently accomplished with three MLVs, especially if the smaller rockets are reusable.

Once the reusable F9 is operational, the FH will be using the same reusable 1st stage as boosters. Their reusable work applies to future variants of both the F9 and FH.

 

[YellowSubmarine]

Re: SpaceX is a go for April 30th: 1st commercial launch to space stat

If the FH can loft 53 mT payloads, you can be sure that is is enough for a Mars program. Many other technologies will be required, sure - but lift to LEO will not be a bottleneck.

Hm, right, that's true. You can send and return people to and from Mars, even settle it with Falcon Heavy rockets. Heavier launchers aren't necessary, I even figured you wouldn't need too many FH launches for a small base. My bad. Sorry.

Wouldn't heavier launchers be cheaper in terms of fuel though? FH can lift five times what F9 can, and uses, what, three times more fuel? If you:
1. Developed full reusability all the way to Mars.
2. Increased the size of the rocket/engines.

Elon Musk's vision for half-a-million round trip to Mars starts to sound less insane.

And even without the full reusability, the rockets themselves are only third of the price. Though FH has the advantage of being built from F9 parts, so an even heavier one might be unsustainable.

 

[Hyperspace05]

Re: SpaceX is a go for April 30th: 1st commercial launch to space stat

There is always an optimal point when it comes to launch vehicle size for $$$/lb to LEO.
- Make the launch vehicle too large, and it will be very expensive and fly rarely
- Make the launch vehicle too small, and you have to launch too often, and with tiny pieces

Personally I think 40-50mT is a pretty good point - especially when it is made up of the same components of smaller launch vehicles. The more frequently you fly a booster, the more confidence you have in it, and the cheaper it will become due to mass production.

BTW, the propellant cost of a rocket launch is just in a tiny fraction of the total launch cost of a rocket. (1-2%, or even less) The hardware and man-hours is what makes up the vast majority of the launch cost.

 

[Hyperspace05]

Re: SpaceX is a go for April 30th: 1st commercial launch to space stat

BTW, tomorrow morning Dragon will depart ISS and re-enter the atmosphere.

Here is the current timeline: http://www.spacex.com/press.php?page=20120530

Dragon Return Timeline 5/31/12 - (times are approximate and subject to change)

Time (Pacific) - Event

01:05 Dragon uninstalled using station's robotic arm
03:10 Dragon released by the robotic arm
03:11 Dragon's Draco thrusters fire departure burns
04:07 Unlatch/close/latch GNC door holding sensors
07:51 Dragon's Draco thrusters fire deorbit burn
08:09 Dragon's trunk is jettisoned
08:35 Dragon's drogue parachutes are deployed
08:36 Dragon's main parachutes are deployed
08:44 Dragon lands in the Pacific

All of this will be covered by NASA TV: http://www.nasa.gov/ntv

 

[sojourner]

Re: SpaceX is a go for April 30th: 1st commercial launch to space stat

The only part of today's procedures I really worry about is the jettisoning of the trunk. Something they haven't done before. If something goes wrong there it's automatic loss of vehicle.

 

[RevDMV]

Re: SpaceX is a go for April 30th: 1st commercial launch to space stat

In the water, now for recovery.

So far this mission has been fantastic, especially for the reach goal of actual cargo delivery and return.

 

[YellowSubmarine]

Re: SpaceX is a go for April 30th: 1st commercial launch to space stat

So they completed two and a half major milestones in one go? Impressive, impressive.

 

[sojourner]

Re: SpaceX is a go for April 30th: 1st commercial launch to space stat

Two and a half?

Now they just need to improve their flight rate.

 

[YellowSubmarine]

Re: SpaceX is a go for April 30th: 1st commercial launch to space stat

Two and a half?

1. COTS 2 milestones
2. COTS 3 milestones
2.5. Re-entry capability, quick cargo return, acceleration acceptable for crew configuration, etc.

 

[sojourner]

Re: SpaceX is a go for April 30th: 1st commercial launch to space stat

Ah, gotcha. Though re-entry had already been proven on COTS 1.

 

[Hyperspace05]

Re: SpaceX is a go for April 30th: 1st commercial launch to space stat

Image of the Dragon in the water:

Hi-res: http://i.imgur.com/qlj3S.jpg

 

[sojourner]

Re: SpaceX is a go for April 30th: 1st commercial launch to space stat

Google needs to add a "here be dragons" to the map off the coast of California.

 

[Wanderlust]

Re: SpaceX is a go for April 30th: 1st commercial launch to space stat

Not sure of you guys know this but F9 has been upgraded to a new version that will take over at COTS flight 5. Weight improvement to 16,000kg from 10,400 to LEO.

Falcon 9 V1.1

Question: Can you describe what modifications you're making to the launch pad at Cape Canaveral?

Musk: The extension to the existing hangar is for payload processing and it's also for Falcon 9 version 1.1, which is longer. It's about 50 percent longer than version 1. We need a little bit of extra length and some extra facilities for the satellites that are coming.

[NOTE: Falcon 9 v1.1 is an upgraded version of the Falcon 9 rocket with more powerful Merlin 1D engines and lengthened propellant tanks. It will also be the core for SpaceX's Falcon Heavy, a colossal booster formed from three first stages strapped together. Falcon Heavy's first test launch is expected as soon as mid-2013.]

Question: When will the first Falcon 9 v1.1 fly?

Musk: We'll certainly be vertical on the pad at Vandenberg [Air Force Base in California] by the end of the year. Launch could be early next year. The launch date depends on how the final phase of testing goes for the next-generation Falcon 9.

Question: What payloads will fly on Falcon 9 v1.1?

Musk: The next version of Falcon 9 will be used for everything. The last flight of version 1.0 will be Flight 5. All future missions after Flight 5 will be v1.1. We've got this mission, which is Flight 3. And we've two CRS [Commercial Resupply Services] missions, Flight 4 and Flight 5, which will fly Version 1.0. Then all future missions, CRS or otherwise, will fly Version 1.1.

http://spaceflightnow.com/falcon9/003/120518musk/

 

[Hyperspace05]

Re: SpaceX is a go for April 30th: 1st commercial launch to space stat

The current version of the F9 will only fly 5 times, yes - but those remaining two flights are CRS1 and CRS2. (no more COTS flights)

Sometime early or mid 2013 this new version will have its first flight - and that first flight will be either CRS3 out of CCAFS (Florida), or the maiden flight (satellite payload) from the new pad at VAFB (California).

 

[M'Sharak]

Re: SpaceX is a go for April 30th: 1st commercial launch to space stat

https://twitter.com/SpaceflightNow/status/208385815867428864

 

[sojourner]

Re: SpaceX is a go for April 30th: 1st commercial launch to space stat

RE: Falcon 9 v1.1

Yeah, I've been following all of the conjecture based on that one small image of it on the nasaspaceflight.com forums. The industry guys and armchair rocket builders are wondering if SpaceX has re-arranged the engine layout from a 3x3 block to an octagon with one in the middle. It's all guessing until more information becomes available.

 

[Hyperspace05]

Re: SpaceX is a go for April 30th: 1st commercial launch to space stat

RE: Falcon 9 v1.1

Yeah, I've been following all of the conjecture based on that one small image of it on the nasaspaceflight.com forums. The industry guys and armchair rocket builders are wondering if SpaceX has re-arranged the engine layout from a 3x3 block to an octagon with one in the middle. It's all guessing until more information becomes available.

Sojourner, are you on the nasaspaceflight.com forums? I post there quite a bit. (as Lars_J) I've expressed a lot of skepticism towards the speculation from that single image.

 

[sojourner]

Re: SpaceX is a go for April 30th: 1st commercial launch to space stat

Lol, hey Lars! Yeah, I have the same user name there. I seldom post, being just a fan. Just the odd question here and there or word of encouragement for SpaceX. I'm just a humble IT guy and not in the industry.

Just to add one more thing on SpaceX. I am glad they finally eclipsed Branson's carnival ride in the public eye with last week's mission. I hated it every time someone would ignorantly point to Virgin Galactic and SS2 as the next great thing in commercial space. SS2 is just a thrill ride.

 

[Edit_XYZ]

Re: SpaceX is a go for April 30th: 1st commercial launch to space stat

Flawlessly performed mission.
Excellent!

 

[Hyperspace05]

Re: SpaceX is a go for April 30th: 1st commercial launch to space stat

Here is a great video that was just released of the Dragon descent, from just after drogue deployment to after splashdown (although the splashdown itself is blocked by clouds) - This was shot from a NASA P-3 Orion chase plane:

[yt]https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=nbHj4P81voA[/yt]