Maybe the next space opera will be via a subscription service (in USA)

[Hyperspace05]

Re: Maybe the next space opera will be via a subscription service (in

Exactly!!!

Yeah, there will be lots of stupid stuff, but (theoretically) a few things will happen (and what's going on is only the start of that). One is that *more* niche/genre stuff can get out there, because there's less of a need to appeal to the most people, and more of a need to appeal highly to a specific group of people. Also, the costs of producing for online can be lower (not saying all of it will be, but some of it) and allow more choice of stuff to watch and follow. Also, artists, writers, the creators of internet media will have far more creative control over the final product (and the fate of that product) than do the people who work in traditional tv/movies. And then, if we're lucky, the added pressure from internet based sites will force ordinary entertainment to start raising its quality, if not, no big deal because internet media has already allowed people to watch exactly what they want to watch.

I don't think you quite grasp the effort (& cost) involved in making a television show of decent quality - never mind a space opera.

The scenario you outline will lead to more choice, but also far lower budgets. Things don't just become cheap because it is done "online". Actors, writers, production costs $$$. Effects cost $$$. While people work on small projects for close to free to get into the business, once they are there, they need to have an income.

There is only so much $$$ being spent on TV shows. If you want to divide that into smaller pieces to create great shows more to targetted audiences, you will see smaller budgets.

QUALITY COSTS. There is no way around that. Can some shows be done well on a smaller budget? Sure, sometimes they can. SciFi shows are unfortunately not of the cheaper kind. Do you know how much money HBO spent on season 1 of "Game of Thrones"? $60m. If you want to have something similar in the space opera genre of equivalent quality, it will cost roughly the same.

But that's HBO you say. What about a relatively cheap looking show like B5? That cost a bit over $1 million per episode - roughly $25 million per season. And that was a shoe-string operation in comparison to the Trek productions. Could it be made cheaper today? Probably - some more greenscreen virtual backgrounds could be used. (although they already used a fair amount)

But DON'T KID YOURSELF into thinking that everything will just be great, cheap, and wonderful just because it is happening "online". It won't. There will be trade-offs. Want more choice? Well get ready for the era of the ultra low-budget SciFi that will make "Sanctuary" look like a big budget extravaganza.

 

[DarthTom]

Re: Maybe the next space opera will be via a subscription service (in

If iTunes has everything I want, sure. Let me do a spot check. Here are my top ten titles on Netflix and the results of my iTunes search:

1. Big Love, S5/disk 4 - $3 per episode, so that's equal to $9-$12 for a disk rental which have 2-4 eps per disk
2. Rise of the Planet of the Apes - $4 rental? pfft! what is this, Blockbuster?
3. 50/50 - $5!!! do they think my last name is Midas???
4. Nero Wolfe, S2/disk 4 - not available
5. The Clone Wars, S3/disk 3 - $3/ep, which is BS, they're only a half hour long - that's equal to $18/disk!!!
6. A Better Life - $5
7. Howl - not available
8. Super 8 - $4
9. Take Shelter - $4
10. Naked Lunch - not available

Agreed, Apple has gotten greedy - more than for their own good when it comes to TV and film rentals. If they were smart, they'd clone Netflix model and have a monthly rental fee that includes 100% of the content in addition to the 1x downloads at a higher price.

Apple [unlike Netflix and Amazon] has a lot of cash laying around and like with Sony it may be a good time to sink some of that into content creation for their various computer platforms.

Just a thought.

 

[Temis the Vorta]

Re: Maybe the next space opera will be via a subscription service (in

I don't think you quite grasp the effort (& cost) involved in making a television show of decent quality - never mind a space opera.

I don't think you grasp how big the potential audience is, once you've streamlined the process of reaching a global audience, which is now a clumsy process for TV and movies, larded up with all sorts of intermediaries who are siphoning off part of the profits.

There are over two billion internet users worldwide. Here's a page that breaks it down.

We currently have a situation where if a show gets, say, 10 million viewers, that can pay for the development of a high-end, expensive series. That same 10 million is just one-half of one percent of the total population of internet users.

Now let's assume nearly everyone on the internet is a free rider.* You only need one-half of one percent to become a paying customer in order to fund everything - that's hardly anyone. Successful content will appeal to niche audience, who will look for things that are exactly what they want, and ignore everything else. And there will be lots of these niches popping up everywhere.

The "one-half of one percent of two billion people" calculation will turn out to be an average - all two billion people are members of some niche, probably multiple niches, but there won't be niches with billions of members - and there could be hundreds of thousands of niches as well.

This is a fundamentally different way of calculating a business than currently exists. TV, movies and music are still in the mass-audience mode - a few products, designed to appeal in an "okay" way to a mass audience that isn't willing to pay much to support them. The new system is an insanely large number of products, designed to appeal in an extremely compelling way to a relatively small audience, who also might not be willing to pay much to support them, just because they're not willing to pay much on the internet at all.

The key here is that the old "mass" audience might actually be the same size as the new "niche" audience, when you remove the barriers to global reach. That's how niche audiences can support the same level of quality as the old mass audience.

The key elements here is market research - what, precisely, are the relevant niches? (We suspect that we know of one - space opera - and there will be many others.) And powerful search - the amount of content will be so overwhelming that the only way for it to work is to give people a way of finding the niches that matter to them, in a mountain of irrelevance.

*I know iTunes and Netflix have been successful in prying cash loose from internet users' sticky fingers, but it's best not to assume that can be extrapolated indefinitely, especially since it might simply represent Americans being more willing than other populations to spend money because iTunes and Netflix have been cheaper than existing legitimate alternatives - what about someone in Asia who's used to buying pirated music and movie DVDs?

Agreed, Apple has gotten greedy - more than for their own good when it comes to TV and film rentals. If they were smart, they'd clone Netflix model and have a monthly rental fee that includes 100% of the content in addition to the 1x downloads at a higher price.

At the very least, they have to set a price that can compete with Netflix's DVD rentals, which has set customer expectations of what a fair price for a TV or movie rental should be. Since streaming costs the producer less than mailing a DVD, the cost should certainly not go up.

Also, those prices are a mish-mash of "purchase" and "rental," which is the same thing to me: I rarely watch any TV show or movie more than once. I'd rather just rent a second time at a low price (in the rare cases where I do that) than buy one time at a higher price.

I know Apple used to rent TV shows for 99 cents. I suspect the studios balked at that pricing, because it undercuts their movie and TV business. They're envisioning a day where audiences get everything through streaming. That $12 movie ticket is now a 99 cent rental (for multiple viewers)? And for TV shows, the business iTunes does is still a small portion of the total.

 

[Temis the Vorta]

Re: Maybe the next space opera will be via a subscription service (in

This is becoming comical. Now Intel is jumping into the frey. Intel??!!??

The paper says that Intel is developing a full-fledged pay TV service to be distributed over the Internet. But you can pretty much tell the paper’s view by its use of the widely understood code to say that the idea is nuts. The Journal, reverting to the third person, says “it remains unclear” whether Intel can make its plan work. Good thing the paper added that caveat: There’s widespread scoffing in the media world today over Intel’s plans. According to the Journal, the chip maker wants to launch by year end, and has asked programmers for their “rate cards” for offering networks and shows. TiVo CEO Tom Rogers told investors at the Barclays Internet Connect Conference that “I did get a chuckle” out of that. What’s wrong with Intel’s plan? It isn’t a question about technology. “They’ve got the set top box concept down,” Bernstein Research analyst Todd Juenger says. “Now, all they need is… everything else.”

With these many players jostling around, it's becoming clear:

1. There's a lot of money that will be invested in trying to figure out how to TV/movie style entertainment content via streaming. Someone is bound to blunder onto the right idea sooner or later.

2. The consumers will be completely confused by the multiple competing services, all with different pricing structures and content libraries. Confused consumers tend to sit on their hands and wait it out.

3. So this raises the stakes for one of the competitors really breaking from the pack with that right idea that someone is bound to blunder across. Consumers will be waiting for some sign that the time has come to jump in, and the whole industry will flounder around until that becomes very clear.

4. We're a long ways from that point right now.

 

[DarthTom]

Re: Maybe the next space opera will be via a subscription service (in

This is becoming comical. Now Intel is jumping into the frey. Intel??!!??

Intel should talk to ATT on how effectively they've been able to wrestle market share from Comcast. At least here in Atlanta, and despite multiple price wars, Comcast still rules the city.

Another player may be a company like Comcast with its acquisition of NBC and Universal. They can stream to their customers only unique content.

 

[Temis the Vorta]

Re: Maybe the next space opera will be via a subscription service (in

That's what could work - some gotta-have-it niche programming that has outsized appeal to early tech adopters, offered exclusively to just subscribers of X service, to start running up the numbers and breaking from the pack. Somebody needs to look like the runaway winner, the Facebook to everyone else's MySpace.

 

[Starbreaker]

Re: Maybe the next space opera will be via a subscription service (in

My ideal world is Netflix, streamed to my TV screen, for 99 cents per episode or movie,

I'd go broke. I've watched hundreds of titles over the past couple of years.

 

[DarthTom]

Re: Maybe the next space opera will be via a subscription service (in

That's what could work - some gotta-have-it niche programming that has outsized appeal to early tech adopters, offered exclusively to just subscribers of X service, to start running up the numbers and breaking from the pack. Somebody needs to look like the runaway winner, the Facebook to everyone else's MySpace.

It appears as though Comcast thinks the Hispanic market is one worth going after, for their customers only:

Hispanic Programming on Xfinity

Xfinity TV Latino customers have come to expect more and more exclusive access to programming, especially sneak peeks and world premieres of some of their favorite shows and highly anticipated new series. This is why we are committed to delivering even more exclusive access to Spanish-language programming On Demand. This month, Xfinity TV customers can enjoy exclusive access to the first episode of the highly anticipated second season of I Love Jenni, a reality show from mun2 starring acclaimed Mexican-American singer Jenni Rivera.
Starting February 22, a full 12 days before the series premieres on mun2, Xfinity customers can not only catch the full first episode, but also view other unique content including interviews with Jenni and behind-the-scenes with the Rivera family. The exclusive premiere of the No. 1 Hispanic celeb reality series I Love Jenni Season 2 promises to be a ride viewers will never forget. In this season, viewers will see Jenni balancing life at home with her five children, a grandchild, and a new husband while dealing with a devastating health scare. With her daughter Chiquis by her side, the Rivera empire is seemingly unstoppable.