bubble-show renewal odds: Heroes, 24, Chuck, etc

[Temis the Vorta]

Bubble Wrap Report.

Heroes:

Don’t be surprised if NBC announces a 12-hour “final chapter” for next fall. 60%

More than enough!

Shockingly, 24's odds are lower than Heroes - only 40%. And V is more likely to return than FlashForward simply because its plot is more extendable. Makes sense to me...

And fret not, Chuckwallahs...

“Chuck” has recently been NBC’s highest-rated show on Monday nights. 75%

 

[Canadave]

90% for Fringe! That's awesome! In the fall, I was convinced that the spiraling ratings would lead to us not getting a season 3. Now I just have to catch up on season 2...

 

[bigdaddy]

I think they are pretty wrong on just about everything. NBC I think will keep Chuck and Mercy without a doubt. Trauma probably will be Southland, more episodes and cancel it. I agree with Heroes, I say a chance of 13 more episodes just to finish it so they can say.NBC has had a "success" in the last decade. The Forgotten, Better Off Ted, and Scrubs are all dead without a doubt. I don't think Fringes chances are 90%, then it's not really a bubble show. Plus it's owned by WB, so Fox gets no DVD money. Smallville and Supernatural will come back, 90% and 98.6%.

 

[Jax]

I do wonder if Fringe is canned by FOX that if ABC would pick it up because surley the best way to replace one J.J show (Lost) is to put another J.J show in its place.

 

[Harvey]

I wouldn't be surprised if this is the last season of 24. Not because FOX wants to end that cash cow, but because they're ready to turn it into a movie franchise instead of a television franchise. I think they missed the boat on that, oh, five or six years ago.

 

[RoJoHen]

Bring on another season of Chuck. I trust the writers to keep it fun.

 

[Temis the Vorta]

Chuck may benefit from a mini-trend this season - CIA shows appear to be the new "in" thing.

 

[RoJoHen]

I just hope this season doesn't wrap up too nicely. I know they were pretty much thinking this would be the end, so if it gets another season, I hope they still have story to tell.

 

[Temis the Vorta]

Chuck's discomfort with what the spy biz requires is the only plotline with any dramatic meat to it. Sarah & Chuck playing footsie and "when will X find out Chuck's secret" are way too thin to build a show around. That sounds like enough to fill out the rest of the season but a whole other season is another matter.

 

[RoJoHen]

Chuck's discomfort with what the spy biz requires is the only plotline with any dramatic meat to it.

At the moment, I agree.

Sarah & Chuck playing footsie and "when will X find out Chuck's secret" are way too thin to build a show around.

Which is one of the reasons I like the fact that they've introduced Shaw and Hannah as romantic interests, and (even though I originally wanted Chuck and Sarah to get together) I'd really like them to stick around. At the very least, I'd like them to help Chuck and Sarah get over each other.

As for "who finds out Chuck's secret," I agree, that is going to get old. Morgan and Elle have been playing the "Chuck's acting weird" game since Season 1.

That sounds like enough to fill out the rest of the season but a whole other season is another matter.

As I said, I trust the writers. I think they can come up with some good stuff. I'd really love to see Scott Bakula return as a main character.

 

[auntiehill]

^Except that Scott has his own show, which is doing fairly well.

 

[Temis the Vorta]

I don't find the other romantic-interest characters interesting - at least not in that role (Roush is good in his own right) - because it's a foregone conclusion that they are merely time-wasters to keep Chuck and Sarah apart. I can't get interested in a story where I'm 100% certain of how it turns out. If there was some real possibility that Chuck and Hannah would get married hand have twelve kids, then hey, maybe it wouldn't seem so dull.

Another story on renewal odds.

And another.

The overall story seems to be: it's not just ratings anymore.

Shows that once upon a time would have been too low-rated to even consider a pickup now get early renewals. And others manage to get 11th hour reprieves that have nothing to do with ratings, and everything to do with renegotiated license fees.

...

"The bar keeps lowering and the dreaded churn factor is always a consideration," says one network exec.

...

Indeed, webheads increasingly go by the mantra that sometimes it's better to stick with a low-rated show you believe in, than go with a new show that might perform even worse -- and might also be a creative disaster.

All things being equal, net execs tend to favor fare produced by their sister studios. They're also increasingly flattered by rabid fans, who might push a show already teetering on renewal firmly into the "renewal" camp. In recent years, that includes "Chuck," "Dollhouse" and "Jericho." (Of course, "Dollhouse" and "Jericho" didn't fare well in their sophomore frames.)

 

[Trekker4747]

I'd highly expect 24 to be renwed.

 

[RoJoHen]

^Except that Scott has his own show, which is doing fairly well.

Quiet you. I can dream!

I don't find the other romantic-interest characters interesting - at least not in that role (Roush is good in his own right) - because it's a foregone conclusion that they are merely time-wasters to keep Chuck and Sarah apart. I can't get interested in a story where I'm 100% certain of how it turns out. If there was some real possibility that Chuck and Hannah would get married hand have twelve kids, then hey, maybe it wouldn't seem so dull.

Oh, I'm not necessarily saying those particular characters need to stick around. I just kind of hope that those relationships help Chuck and Sarah move on from each other (or fully decide to commit to each other) so that we can get over the angst.

And then maybe Sandwich Girl can come back and she and Chuck can live happily ever after!

 

[Temis the Vorta]

I'm prepared to bet five hundred beelion quatloos that Chuck ends with wedding bells for Chuck & Sarah. So the shippers should stop whining!

 

[RoJoHen]

Ugh, I hope not.

Ooh, unless it's a cover wedding!

 

[Temis the Vorta]

Nah, it'll be real. Chuck is a sappy soap at heart.

And Jeffster will wreck the wedding with a raucous cover of something by Supertramp.

 

[Starbreaker]

I never had any doubts about Chuck. NBC went from 13 episodes to 22 without even airing the pilot.

 

[Mr Light]

I think another important factor is the price tag of the show. 24 is a big action show, a movie every week, with a high price big name actor, and it's ratings are crumbling. Whereas a show like Chuck or Heroes is clearly an action show cutting corners left and left and not starring anyone famous.

 

[RoJoHen]

Not to mention Chuck's awesome capacity for product placement.