BoxOffice Prediction from Deadline Hollywood Daily

[chrisspringob]

What if it makes 120 million domestically and about 70 million overseas?

Then not good and only a narrow narrow chance of any more TREK in TV/Movie media. Star Trek must must clear 150 in the US box office alone to stand a good chance of a sequel.

Several previous Trek movies have had their box office drop by 50% after the first week and then 50% after the second week. And so on.

A 70 million opening weekend then would translate into a 150 million or so over a 9-10 weeks running time in major U.S. theatres.

Your math only works if it makes $0 on Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays.

 

[Squiggy]

Those numbers would be rather disappointing.

No those numbers would be phenomenal.

For a Star Trek movie in years past. Yes.

Not for a 150 million dollar movie that has been very highly rated and enjoyed great prerelease buzz.

You want it to fail, don't you?

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

No those numbers would be phenomenal.

For a Star Trek movie in years past. Yes.

Not for a 150 million dollar movie that has been very highly rated and enjoyed great prerelease buzz.

You don't know what you're talking about. Your posts demonstrate no understanding of this subject whatever - the opposite, in fact.

 

[Squiggy]

From Trekmovie.

Box Office Predictions
The new guessing game is all about how much the movie will do in its opening weekend. JJ Abrams and Paramount are lowballing, with numbers in the $45-$50Million range. But the Derby at Box Office Mojo has the domestic opening weekend at $74.4M and BoxOffice.com is projecting Star Trek to make $70M. The only real data we have so far is that Fandango tells us that Star Trek is now accounting for 91% of their online sales and it is outpacing where Wolverine was last week. One note of caution is that online sales are not neccesarily reflective of overall sales, plus Wolverine was on about 6% more screens than Star Trek.

 

[Tulin]

I have heard Abrams making those claims and it almost seems like he is being overly modest. It comes across as insincere because the film is obviously going to make more than $45-$50 million OW.

 

[Jono]

Yes, but only in America.

Here in The Netherlands I haven't seen a single trailer on TV, poster in a magazine, radio commercial or whatever else the marketing department could have come up with. All I've seen is a single review in a free newspaper. Even Insurrection had more media coverage then that.

Most people I know don't even know there's a new Star Trek movie out and some of them even watched earlier Trek series. They simply don't know.

So if it's the same in other countries, I don't think the overseas numbers will be all that high, sadly.

The advertising has been pretty heavy here in Ireland: lots of TV ads, lots of coverage in film magazines, etc.

I'd say STXI has been the most heavily advertised movie here in Australia this year. There were constant TV ads leading up to the day and yesterday after it opened they changed it from trailer add to "on the stop movie goer review" ads, which included the lines, "Better then we expected" (said by women) and "I'm not a trek fan but I enjoyed this movie" said by "cool" looking guy. So they are already starting to push to draw in people who might sit back and think, "Star Trek...I don't know, isn't it just for nerds. I doubt I'll like it" crowd. That is a major mission of this movie, to draw in new fans into the franchise not just pander to the current base.

 

[Squiggy]

That's basic PR. If it has a horrible take and "only" makes 45 million then they can spin it as a success and we'll never hear another peep about Star Trek.

 

[RAMA]

I predicted $50 million with a $160 mill total. However, I know that's not tremendous for a modern blockbuster movie. For my own perspective, those numbers would be outstanding!

RAMA

 

[Destructor]

All that matters is: "Does it make it's money back?" Nemesis, btw, did not- it was a failure. It has probably made it's money back on DVD and will continue to do so as long as Trek is around, but it did not meet it's budget on initial release.

The new Trek had a $150m budget, and in one weekend alone has already made half of that back. So it will almost certainly make it's budget back, and will be a success, even discounting the DVD sales, which will surely be very high. So a sequel at this stage is more or less assured.

 

[D Man]

What if it makes 120 million domestically and about 70 million overseas?

I don't know...what if if makes 123 million domestically and about 67 million overseas? What if it makes a billion domestically and zero overseas? What if it FLOPS?!?!?!? What if you see the movie and actually enjoy it? I just saw the movie and it was amazing. Any potential box office numbers will not change that.

 

[DeafPoet]

We get it, Dayton3, you think it's going to suck and you're pretty much hoping for a box-office failure to vindicate yourself. But you catch more flies with honey, dude.

Go see the flick and then you can trash it outright, as opposed to trashing it surreptitiously like you are now. You'll get people talking shit at you either way, but at least you'll know how to defend yourself credibly.

 

[Captain Fine]

Please God let there be a sequel. It's all based on $$$, but I'm definitely seeing this one again. And from what I could tell at Coliseum Mississauga in IMAX, there were a lot of people seeing this.

 

[Feofilakt]

We get it, Dayton3, you think it's going to suck and you're pretty much hoping for a box-office failure to vindicate yourself. But you catch more flies with honey, dude.

Go see the flick and then you can trash it outright, as opposed to trashing it surreptitiously like you are now. You'll get people talking shit at you either way, but at least you'll know how to defend yourself credibly.

If he earnestly hates it doesn't funding it seem counter-productive? Just an observation.

 

[DeafPoet]

We get it, Dayton3, you think it's going to suck and you're pretty much hoping for a box-office failure to vindicate yourself. But you catch more flies with honey, dude.

Go see the flick and then you can trash it outright, as opposed to trashing it surreptitiously like you are now. You'll get people talking shit at you either way, but at least you'll know how to defend yourself credibly.

If he earnestly hates it doesn't funding it seem counter-productive? Just an observation.

The haters around here are going to fund it at least once. Welcome to TrekBBS

 

[Destructor]

The haters around here are going to fund it at least once. Welcome to TrekBBS

Ha! You rock, dude.

 

[Franklin]

Look, I'll admit up front that I thought $230 million domestic gross would be disappointing, too. Then, I did a little research, and OK, I did it in the wrong order, the research should've come before the opinion. If that's what ST09 grosses, it would be a well within the top five, six, or seven grossing movies of the year for the last few years.
I guess my logic was that Paramount was trying to take Trek to the next level in this movie. Tentpole. Big budget. Full ad campaign. And now, boffo reviews. That's putting a lot into a movie to predict that it will end up being only the 35th largest domestic grossing movie of the decade so far.

 

[Devon]

Fandango and MovieTickets are reporting that Star Trek are taking up 80-90% of their daily sales. http://boxoffice.com/featured_stories/2009/05/new-trek-selling-fast.php