Science fiction becomes reality?
- Thread starter Deckerd
- Start date
Why? Space elevators are a very solid scientific concept that's been around for over a century, and there are currently active efforts underway to develop the technology in real life. We will almost certainly have space elevators by the end of the century, possibly even within our lifetimes. It would be a far more efficient, safe, and practical way of reaching orbit than using rockets, and it would be the key to making space travel truly accessible and affordable. It's been explored in depth in numerous famous works of science fiction, notably Arthur C. Clarke's The Fountains of Paradise (which initially popularized the concept), Kim Stanley Robinson's Red Mars, and David Gerrold's Jumping Off the Planet.
Not to mention Heinlein's Friday. Point being, it's do-able in the near future. Science fiction becomes reality everyday. I recently found my Nextel 390 in the closet. I remember it as cutting edge-but would laugh, now, if I saw anybody using something like it. Yet, when I was graduating high school I would have said it was "futuristic" or something. "The times, they are a'changing..."
Follow the links and references. The point is, there's nothing "tacky" or fanciful about the notion of a space elevator. It's as solidly grounded in real physics and engineering principles as anything you care to name.
I followed the links and references. There's still nowhere stating that space elevators are just around the corner. Creating man-made black holes is theoretically possible and 'grounded in real physics', however I rather suspect that's exactly where it will stay.
I think it was a reference to the poster Tachyon Shield who often posts strange things in the science forum. At least that's what I'd assume. Though I imagine it would look quite tacky!
Not even comparable. That's like comparing a skyscraper with a Dyson Sphere. There are engineers today working on the technology for a space elevator -- not as some abstract pie-in-the-sky theory, but as actual scale prototypes being built and tested in the here and now. There are exactly zero physics obstacles to making it work; the only hurdles are ones of engineering and manufacturing. We have the ability to make carbon nanotubes, which are more than strong enough to allow a cable reaching to orbit; we just don't yet have a means to manufacture them in bulk with consistent quality. The rest is just details of design and execution. Just because you've never heard of a concept that's been known to science for 114 years and taken seriously by engineers for 30 years, that doesn't mean it's fanciful. It just means you're badly out of the loop.
We are living in Philip K. Dick's future, pretty much. It's not it entirely, but we're damn close.
Shit, and here I was thinking that I'd been living in a yellow submarine!
Actually, making a parallel between your life and a pop song is very Philip K. Dick!
From the point of view of TV SF becoming reality - and also not, the BBC series Star Cops is fascinating to rewatch (and yes, I just have, which is why it came to mind).
It was made in 1987, and set in 2027 on a network of space stations and a moonbase and maybe 10,000 people off-Earth. That side of it, which was potentially credible then (just about), is now laughable as a realistic 2027.
On the other hand: it's got the internet right, except that each house has a Big Computer Terminal which seems to be like an old landline phone. Similarly, everyone's got a mobile phone, but the central character's Box (a pocket computer that can access the infonet) is a rarity even in 2027, whereas... well, i-phones.
Also.. there's a super-power rivalry between the US and Russia, which seemed out of date within five years of the original tx. But, at least in the episodes I just rewatched, there's no mention of the USSR, it's all about 'the Russians'.
On the whole, it holds up, even though we're more than halfway from tx to 'happening'.
It was made in 1987, and set in 2027 on a network of space stations and a moonbase and maybe 10,000 people off-Earth. That side of it, which was potentially credible then (just about), is now laughable as a realistic 2027.
On the other hand: it's got the internet right, except that each house has a Big Computer Terminal which seems to be like an old landline phone. Similarly, everyone's got a mobile phone, but the central character's Box (a pocket computer that can access the infonet) is a rarity even in 2027, whereas... well, i-phones.
Also.. there's a super-power rivalry between the US and Russia, which seemed out of date within five years of the original tx. But, at least in the episodes I just rewatched, there's no mention of the USSR, it's all about 'the Russians'.
On the whole, it holds up, even though we're more than halfway from tx to 'happening'.
http://gizmodo.com/5053048/japanese-scientists-plan-to-build-space-elevator
At the moment the only thing holding it back is that we are not quite there when it comes to having a material strong enough. But the development of carbon nano tubes seems to be the final piece for all of this to come together, which is why Japan is now able to set a time frame on the project.
^Nanotubes are more than strong enough; the remaining obstacle there is manufacturing them in bulk with consistent quality. Beyond that, it's simply a question of design and execution: making the mechanism that will let the elevator climb the cable, devising a means of supplying power to the cable, doing the work of orbital construction, capturing a small asteroid to use as a counterweight, etc. All challenging, but all entirely within the realm of physical possibility and requiring only hard work and inventiveness to achieve. We could probably do it in fifteen or twenty years if we (or the Japanese) had an Apollo-like commitment to making it happen.
Geez, not this space elevators "just around the corner" again... The same has been said for years and years.
- Everyone claims to have built long carbon nano-tubes... But where are they? Certainly not being shown to the public, that's for sure. Research is certainly ongoing, but practical engineering and implementation seems to be non-existent. Where are specific figures?
- And every new article indicates that the tensile strength is almost there... Always suspiciously low on specifics. Why? 1. Because they aren't even close, and 2. The requirements for a practical space elevator are simply not known. (see below)
- Once you have a "beanstalk" in place, the engineering challenges to make the moving elevator are just enormous. A mechanical mover for 36000km? Gonna take a while. Mag-lev lift? It is fine to optimize a carbon nano-tube for strength, but once it has to have other properties (being both conductive and insulating where needed) you have a heck of a lot of compromises you have to deal with. And suddenly the mass of your beanstalk rises, and you have yet much higher levels of tensile strength needed.
- Note that with a space elevator, you can only have one carriage at a time going... For 72000 km round trips. Doesn't sounds so efficient now, does it?
Are space elevators possible? Of course. But they aren't happening anytime soon. Not in two months. Or ten years. Or fifty years. And I give it low odds for happening in 100 years.
All these space elevator articles are just continuing examples of "The boy who cried Wolf" - Eventually you just start seeing through the whole hype.
- Everyone claims to have built long carbon nano-tubes... But where are they? Certainly not being shown to the public, that's for sure. Research is certainly ongoing, but practical engineering and implementation seems to be non-existent. Where are specific figures?
- And every new article indicates that the tensile strength is almost there... Always suspiciously low on specifics. Why? 1. Because they aren't even close, and 2. The requirements for a practical space elevator are simply not known. (see below)
- Once you have a "beanstalk" in place, the engineering challenges to make the moving elevator are just enormous. A mechanical mover for 36000km? Gonna take a while. Mag-lev lift? It is fine to optimize a carbon nano-tube for strength, but once it has to have other properties (being both conductive and insulating where needed) you have a heck of a lot of compromises you have to deal with. And suddenly the mass of your beanstalk rises, and you have yet much higher levels of tensile strength needed.
- Note that with a space elevator, you can only have one carriage at a time going... For 72000 km round trips. Doesn't sounds so efficient now, does it?
Are space elevators possible? Of course. But they aren't happening anytime soon. Not in two months. Or ten years. Or fifty years. And I give it low odds for happening in 100 years.
All these space elevator articles are just continuing examples of "The boy who cried Wolf" - Eventually you just start seeing through the whole hype.
I'll gladly revisit this topic with you in ten years. And my prediction is that in ten years we'll appear to be closer, but will have made no significant progress. Sound familiar?
As for the "science being there, just a matter of engineering". The list of things where that applies is *depressingly* long.
But unfortunately with space elevators the science is 0.001%, and the engineering is 99.999%.
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