Your Box office Predictions for Star Trek? (and box office tracking)

[Devon]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Honestly, I think those of you making $300 million+ predictions are setting yourselves up for disappointment. When has any franchise ever had *that* big a turnaround in just one movie?

Well.. Transformers, Dark Knight, Spider Man, Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, etc, etc, etc.

 

[Data Holmes]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Opening day/night will be the ONLY time this film makes any money of any respect. Otherwise, it'll make Paul Blart look like Dark Knight.

Good point. Paul Blart has made $157M worldwide to date on a $26M budget, for a profitability ratio of 6.0. The Dark Knight made $1B on a $185M budget for a profitability ratio of 5.4

So yeah, Paul Blart does look alot like The Dark Knight.

People never think about those numbers, but it's the truth.



As for predictions... I say it hits 80 to 90 million opening weekend with a total domestic box office between 160 and 300 million. Total world wide will be around 350 million to 500 million.

 

[WarMaster1701]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Opening weekend will be from $80-$100 million. It will finish with 185-300 million domestic.

The film has a lot of hype which is just to going to continue to build over the next month.

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

If the thing makes over $200 million domestic the studio will be pleased, at this point. Obviously, they hope it does more like $300 million.

 

[Augustus]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Because the reviews trickling in have been so overwhelmingly positive, I think the film has the opportunity to make $300 million world-wide. That would mean the film breaks even and Trek XI would become profitable from all of the tie-ins, merchandising and eventual DVD sales. Paramount should be pleased, and won't pull the plug on Trek XII, which they've already announced.

Yeah, they don't have a number yet, but rottentomatoes.com already has two reviews up and they are both positive!!! 100% so far!!!

 

[cooleddie74]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

$215 million domestic.

Overseas? Dunno. Sometimes big hits here aren't as boffo in other countries and vice versa.

 

[Trajet]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

The more I hear about the new movie, the more optimistic I am that it'll do well.

I have to agree with previous posters about the comparisons made between Star Trek and Serenity - they're simply not fair. Serenity was made off the back of unprecedented DVD sales of the TV show, and with a very strictly limited budget of $40 million, which is pocket change for a major sci-fi action movie - perhaps implying that Universal were aware it was unlikely to do big box office business, and more likely to reclaim their investment through DVD sales and rentals.

Star Trek on the other hand, has a lot of support at Paramount. The fact that they were willing to sink $150 million into its production costs after the box office disaster that was Nemesis speaks volumes about the sort of confidence they must have in this project. They obviously seem convinced that, if done well, Star Trek can and will put large numbers of bums in seats and generate enough money to justify their investment.

I'm going to throw my hat into the ring and guess the following:

Domestic: $230-250 million
International: $150-200 million
Total: $380-450 million.

If it even manages the lower end of that scale, I'll be more than satisfied, and so will Paramount!

 

[urbandk]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

The more I hear about the new movie, the more optimistic I am that it'll do well.

I have to agree with previous posters about the comparisons made between Star Trek and Serenity - they're simply not fair. Serenity was made off the back of unprecedented DVD sales of the TV show, and with a very strictly limited budget of $40 million, which is pocket change for a major sci-fi action movie - perhaps implying that Universal were aware it was unlikely to do big box office business, and more likely to reclaim their investment through DVD sales and rentals.

Star Trek on the other hand, has a lot of support at Paramount. The fact that they were willing to sink $150 million into its production costs after the box office disaster that was Nemesis speaks volumes about the sort of confidence they must have in this project. They obviously seem convinced that, if done well, Star Trek can and will put large numbers of bums in seats and generate enough money to justify their investment.

I'm going to throw my hat into the ring and guess the following:

Domestic: $230-250 million
International: $150-200 million
Total: $380-450 million.

If it even manages the lower end of that scale, I'll be more than satisfied, and so will Paramount!

yeah... i'm just happy someone believes in the commercial viability of star trek and is willing to put her money where her mouth is.

 

[chrisspringob]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Honestly, I think those of you making $300 million+ predictions are setting yourselves up for disappointment. When has any franchise ever had *that* big a turnaround in just one movie?

Well.. Transformers, Dark Knight, Spider Man, Harry Potter, Lord of the Rings, etc, etc, etc.

Um....note the word *turnaround* in my post. Meaning, when was the last time a movie did 700% better than the previous movie in the franchise, even when said movie was a big reboot of the franchise?

I do think "Batman Begins" is a *somewhat* useful comparison. The previous movie in the franchise (released eight years earlier) was hated, and did terribly b.o.-wise, at least by the standards of that particular franchise. "Batman Begins" comes along, with reviews and word or mouth that are incredibly good, and makes $205 million. A huge improvement on "Batman & Robin", but still "only" about twice as big as B&R in box office terms.

But it still manages to get people interested in the franchise again, and paves the way for the next movie in the franchise, which shatters all kinds of records.

 

[EnsignRicky]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

0.68 million. For an android, that's nearly a fortune.

 

[npsf3000]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

"And I think that would actually be a pretty strong showing, considering that Nemesis only made $43 million total. Honestly, I think those of you making $300 million+ predictions are setting yourselves up for disappointment. When has any franchise ever had *that* big a turnaround in just one movie? "

Err... nemisis made 67m of a 60m budget.

And on the turnaround thing, thats what this movie is about.

In my opinion, this is star trek made well... i has sci fi fans and action fans (just like the recent 600m movies hancock and i am legend) as well as all the trekkies.

As the actual viewers believe this is good, and non trekkies have got interested i think we are aiming to low.

I still maintain my optamistic estimate of 1+ Billion, based on a 40 year old seris capatilising on a modern trend in movies. Timing is right.

 

[chrisspringob]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

"And I think that would actually be a pretty strong showing, considering that Nemesis only made $43 million total. Honestly, I think those of you making $300 million+ predictions are setting yourselves up for disappointment. When has any franchise ever had *that* big a turnaround in just one movie? "

Err... nemisis made 67m of a 60m budget.

Worldwide. I was talking about domestic.

And on the turnaround thing, thats what this movie is about.

In my opinion, this is star trek made well... i has sci fi fans and action fans (just like the recent 600m movies hancock and i am legend) as well as all the trekkies.

As the actual viewers believe this is good, and non trekkies have got interested i think we are aiming to low.

I still maintain my optamistic estimate of 1+ Billion, based on a 40 year old seris capatilising on a modern trend in movies. Timing is right.

Look. I agree with you that this movie will be a big turnaround for the franchise. I do think it has a shot at $200 million domestic. I probably wouldn't bet on it, but it has a shot. I agree that it'll make many times more $ than Nemesis.

But the fact that the no Star Trek movie ever (even inflation adjusted) has made $300 million has to count for something. The fact that both the box office receipts for the franchise's movies has declined over a long period of time has to count for something. The fact that the ratings for the various Trek TV series has declined over a long period of time has to count for something.

Despite all of those things working against it, Trek XI will still do great business. I just think those things have to put something of a limit on our standard for "great business". You can't expect this movie to be The Dark Knight.

 

[Admiral Buzzkill]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Evaluating this as a movie in a line of "franchise" movies is a mistake.

 

[Lumen]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

IMO, this movie will have a similar box office profile to X-Men, Batman Begins or maybe Casino Royale. It'll be somewhere in that range. If it cracks $200 million domestic, I don't think anyone will be able to complain or worry -- and if it comes close, we're probably still in good shape.

 

[Jax]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I will say that whatever the opening weekend total is (domestic only) will give a good sign of how the film will end in the USA. I think whatever it makes will be at least doubled and at worse only short of so a 60 million opening will see at least...

$110-120 but I think TREK will hold a better drop off rate than Watchmen and make at least double if not better than the opening weekend total. Not sure what to make of the worldwide fanbase these days but I will bet on breaking $100 million...$300 million WORLDWIDE TOTAL (including North America Box Office) is the target I've heard set by paramount for a full success.

 

[photon70]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

Adjusted for inflation TMP made:

$240mil in North America.

$395mil Worldwide total.

And had a budget of $145mil.

(These figures were from 'The Numbers - Box Office Data').

$1 in 1979 goes a long way today!

Both STXI and TMP were made after Trek spent years in wilderness.

Both movies were highly anticipated and had a big build up.

Both were made with big budgets.

The similarities are striking.

I predict STXI to do the same box office numbers as TMP. This should mean about $240mil in North America and $400mil Worldwide.

Cheers

photon70

 

[section9]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

The big box office of F&F this past weekend was discussed on the Today show this morning. Essentially, they are saying the recession is leading people to spend money on smaller things, like going to the cinema, rather than going on a holiday for entertainment.

That does bode well for Star Trek having a huge opening weekend.

I just saw F&F. Good little action flick that keeps the franchise going.

The buzz that Trek is getting around the Intertubes leads me to believe that this will be a monster hit. Parents will take the kids.

 

[section9]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I will say that whatever the opening weekend total is (domestic only) will give a good sign of how the film will end in the USA. I think whatever it makes will be at least doubled and at worse only short of so a 60 million opening will see at least...

$110-120 but I think TREK will hold a better drop off rate than Watchmen and make at least double if not better than the opening weekend total. Not sure what to make of the worldwide fanbase these days but I will bet on breaking $100 million...$300 million WORLDWIDE TOTAL (including North America Box Office) is the target I've heard set by paramount for a full success.

What's good about Trek, apparently, is the way it grips the audience. This means one thing: good WOM. That's why Paramount moved it to Indiana Jones Country: May. I will bet that by the time we're done, this move passes $400 mill by the turn of the year. First weekend will be Awesome Sauce, baby.

 

[section9]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

BTW, from what I understand, you either see this thing in IMAX, or you be Reticulan and take up cattle mutilations as a career.

What? No IMAX? Screw that, human! I'm off to mutilate some cattle!

No middle road, baby.

 

[Jax]

Re: What are your Box office Predictions for Star Trek?

I will say that whatever the opening weekend total is (domestic only) will give a good sign of how the film will end in the USA. I think whatever it makes will be at least doubled and at worse only short of so a 60 million opening will see at least...

$110-120 but I think TREK will hold a better drop off rate than Watchmen and make at least double if not better than the opening weekend total. Not sure what to make of the worldwide fanbase these days but I will bet on breaking $100 million...$300 million WORLDWIDE TOTAL (including North America Box Office) is the target I've heard set by paramount for a full success.

What's good about Trek, apparently, is the way it grips the audience. This means one thing: good WOM. That's why Paramount moved it to Indiana Jones Country: May. I will bet that by the time we're done, this move passes $400 mill by the turn of the year. First weekend will be Awesome Sauce, baby.

I do think it will do good but I don't see $400 million