Our near future in space

[All Seeing Eye]

the future of manned space missions will lay with the ESA.

I don't think ESA is actually interested in developing and building launch vehicles for humans -as long as the US-American taxpayer picks up the tab for developing such devices and/or there is a Soyuz rocket.
The next generation (heh!) of surface to orbit spacecraft is likely to be build by private entrepreneurs (or a new player like China or Japan)

Is that so.

Berlin Unveils Crewed Spaceship

ESA Could Turn ATV into Manned Spacecraft

Russian-European manned spacecraft has been unveiled

^ All this the stepping stones for this:

ESA seeks candidates for simulated 'Missions to Mars'

The Aurora program, one of it's objectives is eventual Human exploration of the Solar System, the Moon and Mars. The hope is to reach Mars by 2030.

More detail of the Aurora Program.

 

[Timelord79 (he/him)]

By the way, we don't know yet if a full-sized Polywell fusion device will work. Funding to build one is currently under consideration as data from WB-7 are being evaluated by the U.S. Navy. But theoretically, if it works, a Polywell fusion generator five feet in diameter could be configured to create a powerful fusion propulsion system for spacecraft, even though that isn't its main intended purpose.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polywell

Obviously this technology will become the red glowing things we see on the tip of warp nacelles: Bussard Collectors... anyone?

 

[scotthm]

Do you think the first settlers in america came here knowing they would be selling tobacco to england? or cotton?

No, I believe they came here for percieved new freedom and opportunity. Fortunately, the environment was such that they were able to survive and thrive.

At this time, human colonies won't be able to thrive off of Earth because of the hostile conditions. Maybe in a hundred years, or in a thousand years, we will have overcome that obstacle. Even so, will we expect it to be worth our efforts? I don't know, but we will have to have some reasonable hope of 'profit' before committing to such expensive plans, whether it be terraforming, or the building of elaborate, self-contained habitats.

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[trekkiedane]

Oh, a Lofstrom loop is NOT a space elevator.

Correct!

By the way, we don't know yet if a full-sized Polywell fusion device /.../
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polywell

I had already looked it up (didn't know that name) while I was reading the rest of your post

the future of manned space missions will lay with the ESA.

/.../

/.../

Allright, what I really should have said/meant to say is that I don't think the European taxpayer sees it as their job to fund such things…

 

[All Seeing Eye]

Allright, what I really should have said/meant to say is that I don't think the European taxpayer sees it as their job to fund such things…

Is that so, well it seems to be going well right now and very few if any people are complaining about it. Even the Galileo satellites have still gone ahead even after funding problems. All the latest probes are still going ahead without trouble. The more Europe advances in space exploration the more I can see Europeans taking an interest in it.

 

[Brolan]

I'll believe the European Union is serious about space when I see their first manned launch. There are dozen of concept craft that are worked on at first then discarded for various reasons (usually money). If there is anything the ESA is good at it's waffling and changing their minds.

 

[Brolan]

If I could predict all the ways people will find to make money in the future, I wouldn't be posting here. I'd be getting rich on the stock market. Do you think the first settlers in america came here knowing they would be selling tobacco to england? or cotton? There are 2 ways to make money. Produce something better/cheaper/faster than what is on the market or produce something unique. It's a good thing you weren't around when Columbus was trying to get his expedition going.

From a historical point, do you think New York City has always been as big as it is? How did it get that way? Why did people go there when it was just swampy land?

Humanity branches out. We will go into space because we can.
Heck, you live in a country that exists because people decided to go into the wilderness and carve out a living. It's what we do.

I see you are forgetting Columbus got the money for his expedition by promising to make more money then he was spending in the process. The first explorers were all looking to make a buck of some kind. It's always been about the money.

Also, we aren't spreading out into space. We have exactly three humans living off the planet right now. Three. That after more than forty years of manned space flight. How sad is that?

 

[sojourner]

I see you are forgetting Columbus got the money for his expedition by promising to make more money then he was spending in the process. The first explorers were all looking to make a buck of some kind. It's always been about the money.

Also, we aren't spreading out into space. We have exactly three humans living off the planet right now. Three. That after more than forty years of manned space flight. How sad is that?

yes, Columbus promised a profit. Which is what I have been saying.
I wouldn't base the next 40 years in space travel on the past 40 years. The commercialization of space has just begun. The "New Space" companies are the real space race now. Not interested in just taking government money, they are actually building new markets.

 

[Brolan]

I see you are forgetting Columbus got the money for his expedition by promising to make more money then he was spending in the process. The first explorers were all looking to make a buck of some kind. It's always been about the money.

Also, we aren't spreading out into space. We have exactly three humans living off the planet right now. Three. That after more than forty years of manned space flight. How sad is that?

yes, Columbus promised a profit. Which is what I have been saying.
I wouldn't base the next 40 years in space travel on the past 40 years. The commercialization of space has just begun. The "New Space" companies are the real space race now. Not interested in just taking government money, they are actually building new markets.

If these companies can do it, good for them. Right now most them look like expensive thrill rides more than any serious explotation of space, but who knows what might come about from seeds they are planting?

 

[sojourner]

No, I believe they came here for percieved new freedom and opportunity. Fortunately, the environment was such that they were able to survive and thrive.

At this time, human colonies won't be able to thrive off of Earth because of the hostile conditions. Maybe in a hundred years, or in a thousand years, we will have overcome that obstacle. Even so, will we expect it to be worth our efforts? I don't know, but we will have to have some reasonable hope of 'profit' before committing to such expensive plans, whether it be terraforming, or the building of elaborate, self-contained habitats.

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Hmmm, opportunity? I wonder what that word means? And yes, freedom WILL be a reason that some go into space, eventually.
The environment was one in which they could survive and thrive? Ever hear of Roanoke. And most of the first colonies in america struggled because nobody brought the right skill sets to survive off the land. They were lucky to make friends with the native americans. That whole "thanksgiving" thing.
The future won't be any different colonies will be made, some will fail, some will struggle, and eventually they will prosper. To say "Oh, no one would want to go" is a failing of vision on your part. How many people have already reserved tickets on Virgin Atlantic for just a few minutes of weightlessness? What do you think an organization like the Planetary Society will do once access to space becomes significantly cheaper? Or the Mars Society? No, there are many people on this planet chomping at the bit for the final frontier to become available to the common man. I have no doubts they will go as soon as they can find a way. Nobody waits for "perfected" technology, just "good enough".

 

[sojourner]

Check out www.spacex.com and Bigeloaerospace. They are the biggest players in new space and the ones with the most potential in my opinion. Heck, Elon Musk has said that he wants to put a colony on Mars as his ultimate goal. A good page for space related info is Nasaspaceflight.com. Check out the forums there. some good stuff.

 

[Hofner]

What we need is for gold to be discovered in space. How about a Moon or Mars gold rush? Or has 'gold' already been discovered on the Moon? I'll get back to that later.

Someone mentioned funding. Sometimes I think maybe the true hero of the Apollo program was not the astronauts or engineers or flight directors although they did an extraordinary job, but the true hero may have been James Webb, the NASA administrator during most of the 60s.

According to what I've read, after Kennedy started the Moon challenge NASA had all the funding they needed for the moment. But James Webb knew the romance would wear off and in a couple years people would be looking to cut the funding. So he devoted his efforts to ensure the funding would continue through the years.

I don't know, it's easy to say "Let's go to the Moon". But actually doing it was much harder. And I think maybe the hardest of all was to ensure the funding. In that case I would give Webb a lot of credit for the success of the Apollo program.

As for 'gold' on the Moon, there was a documentary on the Science channel. According to this show, helium-3 is well suited for fusion reactors but there's very liitle of it on Earth. There's supposed to be more of it on the Moon, in the regolith. Still not a whole lot but maybe enough so that it could be the energy source of the future.

I haven't seen much about this in this Science forum. Is this just a pipe dream or is there something to it?

Robert

 

[scotthm]

Hmmm, opportunity? I wonder what that word means?

And I wonder what opportunities you forsee, aside from ferrying tourists into orbit. What industry do you think will be profitable, and how cheaply will travel to and from orbit have to get? Be specific. You want to send men to Mars, and have it be economically viable? What will that reason be?

I don't think there will be enough people willing to spend $100M each for a trip to mars to make a very big impact.

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[sojourner]

And I wonder what opportunities you forsee, aside from ferrying tourists into orbit. What industry do you think will be profitable, and how cheaply will travel to and from orbit have to get? Be specific. You want to send men to Mars, and have it be economically viable? What will that reason be?

I don't think there will be enough people willing to spend $100M each for a trip to mars to make a very big impact.

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I give up. I have provided several reasons why we will go. I have shown you companies that want to go. I have given historical examples. Now your argument has boiled down to "show me exact numbers or it won't happen".
$100mil? Do I really expect it to be that expensive 100 years from now?

I would like to thank you for successfully hijacking this thread from the original question though. Nicely done!

 

[scotthm]

$100mil? Do I really expect it to be that expensive 100 years from now?

Yes, I do.

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[sojourner]

$100mil? Do I really expect it to be that expensive 100 years from now?

Yes, I do.

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OK, with inflation at it's current rate. I could see it being $100mil in 100 years.

 

[StarryEyed]

Hmmm, opportunity? I wonder what that word means?

And I wonder what opportunities you forsee, aside from ferrying tourists into orbit. What industry do you think will be profitable, and how cheaply will travel to and from orbit have to get? Be specific. You want to send men to Mars, and have it be economically viable? What will that reason be?

I don't think there will be enough people willing to spend $100M each for a trip to mars to make a very big impact.

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Access to orbit will have to get VERY cheap (on the order of $100.00/pound) which is only possible with a space elevator variant. Alternatively, things will have to get very desperate here on Earth. We will have to come a point where humanity will have to choose between equilibrium (stagnation) or harvesting the vast resources of our solar system.

Hopefully, humanity will act before we reach the point of desperation.

 

[Amaris]

My hope is that it is soon.
My reality says it will not be within my lifetime that we have anything more than a token presence around our own planet and moon.
I'm 28.

Humanity explores, but remember, there are steps forward and steps back. I have a gut feeling that we as a species are going to take a step back in knowledge. We're going to focus on our collective belly buttons for at least my lifetime, I believe.

J.

 

[scotthm]

things will have to get very desperate here on Earth. We will have to come a point where humanity will have to choose between equilibrium (stagnation) or harvesting the vast resources of our solar system.

That's kind of what I'm thinking. Working in and settling the solar system will be so difficult and expensive that conditions here will have to be pretty desperate to make that an attractive alternative, IMO.

Of course, there is the possibility that propulsion technology will advance significantly in an unforseen way, but that is just the first of many, many challenges to colonizing the solar system.

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[Alpha_Geek]

IIRC, Bigelow areospace was toying around with the idea of tying some of their modules together with a propulsion module and getting it up to TLI speed and taking a lunar cruise much like Apollo 8 did, though ending in earth orbit rather than direct re-entry.

But yeah, I think that at least for big buck tourism, the wave of space industrialism may be knocking at our door. Virgin/Scaled, Blue Origin, and others are building prototypes. Bigelow has 2 prototypes orbiting NOW.

If there's economical sense in going, some industry may well follow these pathfinders.


AG