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First movie of 2008 to reach $300M or even $400M???

First movie to make US domestic $300M in 2008

  • Iron Man

    Votes: 37 41.1%

  • Indiana Jones & the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull

    Votes: 22 24.4%

  • The Dark Knight

    Votes: 24 26.7%

  • Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince

    Votes: 6 6.7%

  • Other - please specify in your post

    Votes: 1 1.1%
  • Total voters
    90
  • Poll closed .
Captain Craig

Captain Craig

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Now that we answered the questions of first to $100 & $200M the last post in that thread inspired me to start this one.

Can Iron Man reach $300M

Currently Iron Man has about $231M, or close enough after Wed-Thur(5/21-22) figs are included. Not bad for a movie many around here and about the 'net didn't see as doing even $200M.

Today, May 22, sees the opening of argueably the biggest tentpole film of summer in Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. Its premire at Cannes was respectable to good and not booed of the pier. How will it perform? It has been considered the only possible contender for $400M, is that still viable for IJ, or any movie this year for that matter.

The Dark Knight is the last major tent pole but it does not arrive till July(a lifetime away at this point).

I'm not convinced other fare like Hancock, Kung Fu Panda or Wall*E will do more than $250M.
Other entertaining fare such as Sex&the City, X-Files(2):I Want to Believe, The Happening, The Incredible Hulk, Get Smart, Star Wars:Clone Wars or Mummy(3) Tomb of the Dragon need even be in the discussion but make a case for any of the above it is a guessing thread.

I think the goals will be known by summer end but just in case Harry Potter and Half Blood Prince is waiting in the wings come November. Not sure if other fall movies are a threat like High School Musical 3, Quantum of Solace of the Madagascar sequel should either a summer entry or HP not make $300M or $400M.

Place your guesses.

I say Iron Man hits $300M by end of June.
I say no movie, yes even Indiana Jones as much as I love him, hits $400M.
 
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Are these Domestic or Domestic and International numbers? Either way, I figured Iron Man would easily hit $200M and I think the Hulk may very well do the same. I am almost betting that The Dark Knight will hit $200M much quicker, but I don't see Indy 4 doing $400M Domestically.
 
I think Iron Man will reach 300 million domestically, but that will be about it's limit. There won't be much room for it as other films are released and steal its thunder.

I'm totally unsure on Indiana Jones. I'm going to see it later today. I wonder if there will be a crowd or not. It is only a Thursday.
 
John_Picard said:
Are these Domestic or Domestic and International numbers? Either way, I figured Iron Man would easily hit $200M and I think the Hulk may very well do the same. I am almost betting that The Dark Knight will hit $200M much quicker, but I don't see Indy 4 doing $400M Domestically.
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We are only speculating on US domestic but feel free to post any WW numbers you think a film might hit, just clarify it.

If The Incredible Hulk hits $200M I'll be ecstatic. My floor/ceiling guess on TIH is $125/$175M-US domestic.
 
Well, I definitely think the four movies you've listed (Iron Man, Indiana Jones, Dark Knight, and Harry Potter) are the four most likely to reach $300 million this year, though none of them is a lock. I suppose some other movie, like maybe Wall-E or something, might make it too, but I'd be surprised.

I guess I'll go with Indiana Jones as the first $300 million movie of the year. Iron Man might make it there, but it'll take forever. Indiana Jones is more likely to get there first.
 
John_Picard said:
The Evil Dead said:
I'll be a weak summer overall. Maybe Iron Man or Wall*E to 300 million.
Click to expand...

What makes you say that?
Click to expand...

An economic down-turn at the moment doesn't bode well for people making it to the movie theatres.

Then again, Iron Man has been unexpectedly huge, so maybe that bodes well for the summer. It's hard to know at this point. I do think the catalog of films coming out seems to be one of the strongest in a while, so that could be a good sign.
 
Hirogen Alpha said:
John_Picard said:
The Evil Dead said:
I'll be a weak summer overall. Maybe Iron Man or Wall*E to 300 million.
Click to expand...

What makes you say that?
Click to expand...

An economic down-turn at the moment doesn't bode well for people making it to the movie theatres.

Then again, Iron Man has been unexpectedly huge, so maybe that bodes well for the summer. It's hard to know at this point. I do think the catalog of films coming out seems to be one of the strongest in a while, so that could be a good sign.
Click to expand...
I disagree. Rising prices of gas means people will be diverting resources towards more affordable means of escape, so in my view, rather than driving across the country, families will spend more of their vacation dollars driving across town to the movies. And the crop for this season looks especially promising.
 
If Hulk hits $175, I would call it a huge success for Marvel Studios. I think Indy will hit $300 first.
 
I've read that Indy IV has to make $400 million DOMESTIC in order be considered a profitable success. Just domestic alone. Also, Spielberg, Lucas and others took a huge chunk of their payday and applied it towards the film's budget because it ballooned during production -- from $125 million to $195 million.

So the film would have to reach the mark not only in order to be considered profitable for Paramount, but for Spielberg, Lucas, et al to actually reap benefits as well.

I just don't see that happening, but we'll see I guess.
 
I voted other. Partly because I think Wall-E has a chance (it's got all the makings of a classic for all ages that'll drag people to the cinema in droves, I think); but mainly because I'm a contrarian who likes the idea of some nobody slapping together a movie on a shoestring budget which takes the cinemas by storm and upsets the best laid plans of mice, men and studios.
 
^^^
Was WALL*E done on a shoestring budget by Pixar??

Re: Jackson Archer
I've read that as well about the $400M for Indy, US domestic. With that milestone being so hard these days I just wonder how close they can come and it still be considered a "financial success".
Does it become the Superman Returns of 2008? A movie that barely makes back its production cost, yet is seen as being less successful than the numbers would indicate for any other movie.
 
How can $400 million domestic be required for Indy to be a success? What exactly was its budget? How can the number required for profitability not depend greatly on international box office, DVD sales, television distribution, merchandising tie-ins, etc.? Domestic box office is just one piece of the puzzle, and not even the biggest piece.
 
If enough people enjoyed Indy as much as I did, it will piss all over 400Mil.

I think the people who really enjoyed it will go see it again, and thats what makes a blockbuster, repeat viewings.
 
After Indiana Jones, Iron Man, Harry Potter, Dark Knight, and Wall-E, what's the *next* most likely 2008 release to make $300 million? Hancock maybe? Any other possibilities? Get Smart??? Bedtime Stories???
 
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