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The RAM crisis and the PC apocalypse

Now we can add spinning rust to the list.

WD has announced it’s production for 2026 and into 2027 has been bought up and I expect that Seagate won’t be far behind.

And those two are pretty much the only game in to as brands like HGST and Toshiba are owned by WD.
 
Now we can add spinning rust to the list.

WD has announced it’s production for 2026 and into 2027 has been bought up and I expect that Seagate won’t be far behind.

And those two are pretty much the only game in to as brands like HGST and Toshiba are owned by WD.
Wonderful.

I replace a NAS drive every year, and I need to make a backup of my NAS to a drive this year. Good times.
 
One has to wonder if maybe there's a cheaper newer RAM technology that could offer a cost effective solution.
It’s the manufacturering process that’s the big cost not the actual memory technology e.g DDR5 vs DDR4.

Other than and capacity, I don’t know if there’s much difference between the actual dram modules on a DDR5 DIMM vs DDR4 DIMM.

Much of the work is also done by the memory controller. Once it was a feature of the now it’s on the cpu die.

So to go to another memory technology would also require a cpu redesign not to mention having similar performance or everything will take a step backwards.

So the on,y way to decrease the price is to increase production which means more manufacturers and more fabs .

But you need to be sure you’ll see and ROI for your multi-billion dollar expediture.

Plus the time to design, build and fit out the fab.

The ltt video on the kioxia plant in Japan is good guide to what’s invoked with building the sort of facility needed and there are probably a few others on YouTube (buy not a lot)
 
This sad situation provoked me into accelerating my plans with getting a new pc, my old one was bought in 2019 and the 2070 super inside it was struggling to keep up on top of other aging factors.

Got one with 32gb ddr5 ram, rtx 5080 and an i9-12-something processor. £2000 so that's going to take me at least 2 years to pay off but it was a need and if I delayed any longer that price would only go up at this rate.

I probably spent more than I would have done if I'd done this last year but I was waiting to build up my savings and mulling between a whole new machine and just installing new parts. I kept telling myself there'll always be computers...
 
It’s the manufacturering process that’s the big cost not the actual memory technology e.g DDR5 vs DDR4.

Other than and capacity, I don’t know if there’s much difference between the actual dram modules on a DDR5 DIMM vs DDR4 DIMM.

Much of the work is also done by the memory controller. Once it was a feature of the now it’s on the cpu die.

So to go to another memory technology would also require a cpu redesign not to mention having similar performance or everything will take a step backwards.

So the on,y way to decrease the price is to increase production which means more manufacturers and more fabs .

But you need to be sure you’ll see and ROI for your multi-billion dollar expediture.

Plus the time to design, build and fit out the fab.

The ltt video on the kioxia plant in Japan is good guide to what’s invoked with building the sort of facility needed and there are probably a few others on YouTube (buy not a lot)

So, more factories, in other words. But part of the problem is that some of these manufacturers ceasing production making availability more expensive due to scarcity. Probably a stupid question, but is there such a thing as memory uniquely manufactured for servers compared to consumers? Or is it all the same thing? Because what we're seeing is AI data centers gobbling up all the available memory leaving regular consumers out in the lurch. Maybe there should be a way of regulating by having companies set aside a certain quota for AI use and another for consumer use.


I have to think that eventually it will sort itself out, that some manufacturer will see the need and start manufacturing. Heck, I read an article last week about how a Ford EV plant in Kentucky has had to pivot to manufacturing industrial batteries used in industrial-grade generators.
 
Probably a stupid question, but is there such a thing as memory uniquely manufactured for servers compared to consumers?

yes - registered error code correcting (ECC) RDIMMS.

Some consumer boards and CPU combinations can unregistered ECC but not many but RDIMMS are purely server.

so if/when the ai bubble pop all that ram is e-waste...

same with the gpu which have been optiimised for ai and using a propriety interface. can get adapter cards for HBM to PCIe but not that common.

storage is serial attached scsi for spinning rust and solid state is U.2 format. Again can be used in consumer hardware with adapters but again a hassle for consumers.
 
^^ To add to that: fabs can make all these kinds of memory, doesn't matter if its DDR 3,4,5 ECC or non ECC however, they're using most, if not all capacity to make server grade products which have a much higher margin...
 
yes - registered error code correcting (ECC) RDIMMS.

Some consumer boards and CPU combinations can unregistered ECC but not many but RDIMMS are purely server.

so if/when the ai bubble pop all that ram is e-waste...

same with the gpu which have been optiimised for ai and using a propriety interface. can get adapter cards for HBM to PCIe but not that common.

storage is serial attached scsi for spinning rust and solid state is U.2 format. Again can be used in consumer hardware with adapters but again a hassle for consumers.


Ok, that's what I wanted to know. Thanks for the explanation.

^^ To add to that: fabs can make all these kinds of memory, doesn't matter if its DDR 3,4,5 ECC or non ECC however, they're using most, if not all capacity to make server grade products which have a much higher margin...

Yeah, I assumed that was what was going on, but I'm a little out of my depth. Again though maybe they can compromise by using a quota system that allow both types to be made and not more before either quota is met.
 
Memory fab: lalala just fabbing along.
AI C#nts: wanna buy everything!! EVERYTHING!!!
Memory fab: what about the others?
AI C#nts: WE PAY DOUBLE!! TRIPPLE!! EAT TEH CAKE!@!!!!
Memory fab: 'Kay..

Compromise = less money, quota = less money
Memory fab: NO! MUST HAVE CAKE!! NOM NOM NOM!!

So no, the one who pays more gets the hardware, same for graphics cards, SSD's and now HDD's as well. :biggrin:
 
NPR did a piece about rising RAM prices and how it will affect gaming consoles and phones and, eventually, IoT appliances in the months and years to come.
yep it's delayed the new steam console and there rumours about the next gen Playstation and Xbox but then the manufacturers have gotta manage to keep the current models in production till then

then you've got the hand helds like the steam deck and similar.

STBs for cable companies is another one I've seen mentioned as having the poential to be impacted.
 
You keep throwing memory at problems, instead of learning to properly optimize your code, you're eventually bound to run out.

I take great pride in the fact that the only times I've ever owned WinDoze boxes, it was for the brief period it took to completely wipe WinDoze from them, and convert them to either DOS or DOS/Linux dual-boot.

Luddites of the World Unite! You have nothing to lose but your upgrade-treadmills!
 
I assume they don't care, they just want to get as much as possible, the rest is unimportant.

As for optimizing the code and so, doesn't work that way, it's not about the code, it's about how large your model can be, the more samples you have in your model the more precise and accurate it will be, that takes space.
 
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