Polling has of course been wrong before... but he's so far ahead right now, that I do tend to think if the election were held right now, he would get a majority.
Our only saving grace is that at the moment, the election is so far away, so there's more time for people to listen to what he says, and realize they don't like what they hear. (Unfortunately there does seem to be a (growing?) segment of the population that does like what they hear.) But I'm hoping that more of the more centrist conservatives realize that he's farther right than they're willing to go. (I do suspect he will manage to siphon a lot of the PPC vote, though.)
I still think that the Liberals' best chance is for Trudeau to retire. The best time to do that was before now, but the second best is right now. If he waits too long, he's putting the new leader at a disadvantage. But most likely, through hubris or whatever it is, he will stick to his plan of leading the party in the next election, not realizing (or not caring) that he's in generally the same position now, that Harper was in in 2015.
I hope--really, really hope--that in fact people aren't lining up behind PP/CPC's vision of the country as much as they're running
from the current PM and cabinet. I've seen a few interesting polls/projections showing some of the perhaps-soon-to-be-former Liberal ridings are actually now splitting that vote on the orange/ blue line. Both sides seem to be picking up from the Liberals, it's perhaps not a runaway to either the CPC/NDP.
Trudeau has to decide: step down immediately as party leader to set the stage for the next person and slink out of office, or, see the party collapse in an election under his watch. And one of the huge problems with option #1 is that I don't think any of the top contenders would run for leadership at this time. After Kim Campbell's ouster in the 1993 election, which really was all about years of Mulroney, I doubt any rising star wants to gamble their career as captain of a sinking ship in today's Liberal party.
In any case, I think Trudeau has pulled a Ruth Bader Ginsburg/Joe Biden no matter what he does next. Just waited way too long for a protege to realistically have a shot, and now the party and country are in risky territory.
I don't want to sound doom and gloom. I usually swing between LPC and NDP, but hey a good idea is a good idea even if it comes from the Conservatives. (Mind you, I don't find
a lot of good ideas in their proposals...but still, any good idea... LOL) And unfortunately, while I know a lot of people aren't themselves aligned to Cons on policy, they are nevertheless aligned to the Anyone But Trudeau idea.
But, the election isn't imminent. Things can change in an instant. The Conservatives are on a high dose of Trudexhaustion and inflation, but I say the Liberals still have an ace they can play. That ace is called Danielle Smith and she's the gift that keeps on giving!
I hate bell.
Two weeks now I've been calling them or being called by them about a promotion they mailed to me. 6 calls. Hours on hold. Supposed to be active Feb 29. March 8. Now I'm told March 18. All it is is a $30 discount, which they offered via mailing it to me!
Ah Bell, the one and only time I have ever told a call centre rep I'd need a copy of the call recording for when I hire a lawyer. Same kind of situation: I was a happy Telus customer for years, switched to Bell for a promotion, which they never applied, and then the fighting over a less than $100 credit was so off-putting I think I went back to Telus the next week.
I also have a lot to say about Bell and their ongoing war against their own CTV News division and CTV News employees, not to mention the CTV News audience across the country. That would take chapters though so instead of getting into it, I'll just say it's another reason to hate on Bell.
