Do you believe at some point, everyone in the Milky Way joined the Federation?

[Kamen Rider Blade]

Practically impossible, but entertaining the thought or at least partially in a story angle in universe, Starfleet should have annexes for academy training and also political offices on far away planets besides Earth.

I concur, I don't think everybody would join the UFP.

Heck, not every country in the world is recognized and part of the UN.

StarFleet should have Academy's and Branch Offices on every single planet that is part of a Member Civilization that are long standing UFP member worlds.

During TNG Federation vessels were mapping stars and first contacts at an accelerated rate, exploring at farther distances; at some point the trip to Earth should be unfeasible.

Depends on how they were exploring, it doesn't seem like they were going as far as possible, but just expanding explored territory little by little on all sides.

 

[Kamen Rider Blade]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milky_Way#Size_and_mass

In March 2019, astronomers reported that the mass of the Milky Way galaxy is 1.5 trillion solar masses within a radius of about 129,000 light-years, over twice as much as was determined in earlier studies, and suggesting that about 90% of the mass of the galaxy is dark matter.[30][31]

https://www.sciencealert.com/the-mo...e-milky-way-s-mass-puts-us-ahead-of-andromeda
What's in a galaxy? A lot, apparently. We now have the most accurate measurements of the size and mass of the Milky Way ever calculated, and it's turned out to be more massive than we thought.


How massive? Well, about 1.5 trillion Suns' worth of mass (solar masses), within a radius of around 129,000 light-years.

That's over twice as much as previous estimates - according to a 2016 study, the Milky Way was estimated at around 700 billion solar masses.

So the original estimate of 100,000 ly for the diameter of the Milkyway Galaxy that we had in the 90's and early 00's are off.

So the Diameter of the Milkyway might be 258,000 ly given the new info we have.

 

[CorporalCaptain]

In March 2019, astronomers reported that the mass of the Milky Way galaxy is 1.5 trillion solar masses within a radius of about 129,000 light-years, over twice as much as was determined in earlier studies, and suggesting that about 90% of the mass of the galaxy is dark matter.[30][31]

https://www.sciencealert.com/the-mo...e-milky-way-s-mass-puts-us-ahead-of-andromeda
What's in a galaxy? A lot, apparently. We now have the most accurate measurements of the size and mass of the Milky Way ever calculated, and it's turned out to be more massive than we thought.


How massive? Well, about 1.5 trillion Suns' worth of mass (solar masses), within a radius of around 129,000 light-years.

That's over twice as much as previous estimates - according to a 2016 study, the Milky Way was estimated at around 700 billion solar masses.

So the original estimate of 100,000 ly for the diameter of the Milkyway Galaxy that we had in the 90's and early 00's are off.

So the Diameter of the Milkyway might be 258,000 ly given the new info we have.

Thanks for that.

 

[Kamen Rider Blade]

Thanks for that.

No Problem

Don't forget that our "Sol" Star Sytem lives within the Thin Disk

Which is enveloped by the Thick Disk

And that Space is 3-D, so we can travel Up/Dn the Galactic North/South as well as span out latterally

I guess our "Sol" system would be considered part of the Milky Way's Galactic Suburbs.

 

[Commander Troi]

“Far out in the uncharted backwaters of the unfashionable end of the western spiral arm of the Galaxy lies a small unregarded yellow sun. Orbiting this at a distance of roughly ninety-two million miles is an utterly insignificant little blue green planet whose ape-descended life forms are so amazingly primitive that they still think digital watches are a pretty neat idea.”

 

[ThankQ]

The Sun is pretty close to the plane of the galactic disk. So, if we consider a cylinder centered at the Sun that is 1000 light years tall (to get to the limits of the galaxy perpendicular to the disk), with a radius of 1000 light years (to be a lower limit of what's necessary to jibe with locations and distances cited in TOS), then, at a stellar density of .0004 stars per cubic light year, we have over one million stars in Federation space or in close proximity to it. That's a lot less than the number in the whole galaxy, but it's still pretty large. (edit - This figure of a million or so in this volume is almost certainly an overestimate, because the stellar density decreases with distance from the galactic plane, but I have no figure for how rapidly it is believed to decrease.

 

[publiusr]

The point I was making is it’s impossible. There are just too damned many stars, and even at the ludicrous idea of visiting one an hour it would take ages just to drop in on the likely ones, let alone establish diplomatic relationships.

I think it actually might be easier. That there could be lots more aliens doesn’t mean there are, and the presence of so many human like aliens in trek…even with the foreheads…could be seen as (in universe) evidence that there was a galaxy wide set up at one point that fell apart. And maybe the Borg are the ultimate end result, just here a bit early. The Fermi paradox will point towards something like Foundation, with Pohl’s “Man Plus” speciation maybe making our descendants look like something out of trek at some point. But everything is going to be a DY-something…No FTL

 

[Maurice]

Easier than what?

 

[publiusr]

I think you said making contact with other civilizations was impossible. If there aren’t so many…it’s easier

 

[CorporalCaptain]

I think @Maurice said (among other things) the number of solar systems in the galaxy is too ludicrously large for Starfleet to visit each one of them within a time-frame on the order of even just centuries, that is (and the following is my qualification, not his), unless Starfleet is far ludicrously larger than we've been led to believe it is in any Trek incarnation (which, of course, would be ludicrous).

 

[Timo]

That I guess assumes that Starfleet is a static entity. But given the way the UFP operates, it would seem likely for Starfleet to rather be inherently prone to exponential growth. Whenever they expand, they find new folks who may choose to join. Even if only about 1% of those met at any particular outer spherical surface decide to join, they will add to Starfleet and boost the expansion wavefront in classic Huygensian manner - at an accelerating pace when the surface grows larger with growing distance! Indeed, early expansion might be slowed down chiefly by overcrowding, and Starfleet would grow faster as the frontier widens and the new expansion assets being built can finally be efficiently employed.

That is, it's not a drop of ink diluting into a pool, but more like a match lit in the middle of a pool of gasoline. Assuming, of course, that sufficiently many cultures out there think Starfleet is hot enough. But as said, only a tiny fraction of them would need to.

7,000 active ships might be good enough for Starfleet of TOS to rule sovereign over the UFP territory of TOS (and they really love to rule sovereign, putative central government or not!). But an expanding UFP would soon have 7,000,000 active ships for its Starfleet, unless active measures were taken to prevent the building of the ships and the drafting of the crews. And then 7,000,000,000 ships. What's gonna stop them? Or even slow them down?

(DSC would have us believe that something does, even before the dilithium shortages and the Burn. There's a story in there, even if one left untold forever. But if the story changes in the 32nd century, then the United Federation of Galaxies could emerge pretty soon thereafter, only to expand to the United Federation of Galaxy Clusters the next month. I mean, if there's expansion within the Milky Way, it's already at a pace that suffices not just for defeating distance and numbers, but also for crushing competition and other resistance - and things will only get easier with momentum in that respect.)

Timo Saloniemi

 

[Maurice]

I think you said making contact with other civilizations was impossible. If there aren’t so many…it’s easier

Maybe. How many civilizations has Star Trek portrayed so far in and around the Federation? You could do some baseline math like this.

1. Assume the Federation has a radius of 1,000 ly
2. Assume the shows have portrayed 123 civilizations in that volume of space (I just made that number up)
3. Assume their are 8 million stars within that Federation (2,000 ly diameter) (which is a pretty good estimate based on stellar density in this part of the galaxy)
4. That would be an average of 1 civilization per every ~65,041 stars
5. Now, assume the Milky Way Galaxy is 400 billion stars total (recent studies indicate our Galaxy is much bigger and had more stellar mass than previously assumed, so this is being conservative)
6. Divide 400 billion by 65,041 and you have 6 million 150 thousand civilizations to sign up.
7. Assume that none of them ever secede
8. Assume you can sign them up at at the following rates...
   1. One Per Month: It will take 512,500 years
   2. One Per Day: It'll take 16,838 years
   3. One Per Hour: It'll take 701 years
   4. One Per Minute: It'll still take 11.7 years

Math is fun.

 

[Kamen Rider Blade]

7,000 active ships might be good enough for Starfleet of TOS to rule sovereign over the UFP territory of TOS (and they really love to rule sovereign, putative central government or not!). But an expanding UFP would soon have 7,000,000 active ships for its Starfleet, unless active measures were taken to prevent the building of the ships and the drafting of the crews. And then 7,000,000,000 ships. What's gonna stop them? Or even slow them down?

ST: Discovery stated that at it's peak @ ~ 3069, the UFP had 350 members.

Even if StarFleet had 7 Billion Ships & , and they were in the 32nd Century and HYPOTHETICALLY, the burn never happenned and StarFleet is at full strength, there is no Dilithium Shortage and they can make Synthetic Dilithium from scratch.

You still have 4 Quadrants to watch over, and not every ship will be active at any given time.

That's 1,750,000,000 assigned to each Quadrant.

Now IRL, the US Navy has a rotating schedule where various ships are in different status:

I've come up with a simple 24 month schedule O-FRP (Optimized Fleet Response Plan)
Maintenance and/or Repairs: 01-08 months (In Dry Dock or at a StarBase doing routine maintenance and getting checked out, or getting repaired because the ship is seriously injured.)
Ship ShakeDown / Training: 04-08 months (Validate that every system on the ship is functioning as expected, then get the Crew Up & Running, synced and working like a well oiled machine)
Travel time & Deployment @: 08-19 months (Travel to your mission objective & spend the majority of time @ that location, then travel back)

Obviously that means various ships can be out and about while others are at Dry Dock sitting for a while.

So assuming a simple math of 1/3 of your fleet in one of those status at any given time for arguments sake.
You'll only have about 1/3 of your fleet: 583,333,334 out and about in your quadrant exploring, doing normal UFP deployment stuff.
Another 1/3 in Dry Dock, and another 1/3 in training.

Or some mix of shifting a few more in each bucket.

Don't forget, not all ships are out "Exploring" the final frontier.

Some are on:
- logistical duties
- 2nd Contact
- Border Patrol & Tactical Security in a region
- Long Term Scientific Studies
- Long Term Engineering Projects
- Etc

Not everybody gets the glorious Explorer jobs where they spelunk through the Final Frontier.

And don't forget how vast space is in 3 Dimensions.

 

[CorporalCaptain]

That I guess assumes that Starfleet is a static entity.

It assumes nothing of the kind. It's merely the observation that, with registry numbers of observed starships having at most five or six Arabic digits and/or Latin letters, not to mention references being made to top-of-the-line starships numbering only in the dozen(s), there's never been any indication that Starleet has the required number of ships to perform the rate of visitation necessary to complete the tour within the time-frame of any series.

 

[publiusr]

Sadly, I’m a member of the “rare earth” ideology. I think you might have 10,000 to 50,000 species in trek at its most rosy…head canon. But I assume that most systems are protists only at best.

In real life?

I think the Local Group of galaxies has…in terms of industrial worlds (admitting that I’m pulling this guess out of my tuchus)

one to five

 

[Timo]

It assumes nothing of the kind. It's merely the observation that, with registry numbers of observed starships having at most five or six Arabic digits and/or Latin letters

Well, that IS the assumption. That is, you assume that Starfleet is a static entity, just as observed in Trek so far. But the question is about "some point", for which the assumption of sameness need not hold.

Expanding takes millions of ships, and then billions. But we don't know of any factor that would stop Starfleet from having billions of ships. All they need is the millions of new planets to build them, to mine dilithium for them, and to crew them - which is what "expansion" is all about.

Contacting a new planet every second is sort of trivial when you have billions of ships and there are only three million seconds to a year. The interesting questions then deal with the discrepancy between that which should be possible and that which we observe. How can the UFP run out of dilithium? Does it expand its fleet faster than its dilithium-rich holdings, that is, does it botch up the game where a better player would win? Or does the Milky Way not have sufficient dilithium for a truly galactic empire in the first place?

The UFP pre-Burn appears to be truly galactic in the sense that Sahil has a power base 50,000 ly from Earth and is dismayed to see the Federation vaporize from around him. With a dozen Sahils, the UFP rules the galaxy, and can access all its dilithium sources. If that's not enough for maintaining trade and defensive/adminstrative fleets, then no, not everybody can live under UFP rule forever. But pre-Burn, they briefly could have, given how the UFP was everywhere.

Supposedly there have been big empires before. Did any of those rule the whole galaxy? Did they consume dilithium, leaving less for their successors? Did each of them exhaust a different single key ingredient and then collapse, dilithium merely being what the 47th galactic superpower depends on / collapses on? We have heard little of galactic rule, the one possible exception being the Slavers of TAS fame. (And supposedly also the proto-humanoids of "The Chase", since they faced no competition yet claimed to have looked for such everywhere.)

If the UFP pre-Burn was sharing the galaxy with another expanding power of note, it's quite odd that we have heard nothing of this competition yet... And unlikely for such to become a factor in our "some point" scenario afterwards.

Timo Saloniemi

 

[CorporalCaptain]

[*]Assume their are 8 million stars within that Federation (2,000 ly diameter) (which is a pretty good estimate based on stellar density in this part of the galaxy)

I was attempting to address an issue regarding this upthread with my post about the cylinder, that I'm prepared now to flesh out a bit more.

The galaxy is only about 1000 light years thick here at the Sun (give or take; meaning the overwhelming majority of the stellar populations is within that limit), and moreover the stellar density drops off once you move away from the galactic plane. Hence the cylinder I described: the stellar population can be estimated more accurately by assuming that the stellar density near the Sun is maintained uniformly over only the cylinder that I described, than it would be by assuming that density holds uniformly for the entire sphere with a radius of 1000 light years. And, given the drop-off in density, (on the order of magnitude of) only a million stars or so within a 1000 light years of Earth is an upper bound (under the assumption of the accuracy of the parameters involved).

Most theoretical models assume an exponential drop-off in stellar density as you move away from the galactic plane. So, under the postulate of an exponential drop-off in density, we can actually solve for the average density, if we assume that exactly 95% of the stars are within 500 light years of the disk.

int(exp(-x),x=0,+infinity) = 1.

So the overall mass along a line perpendicular to the galactic plane is (conveniently) unity in these units of distance.

0.95 = int(exp(-t),t=0,x) = -exp(-x) + exp(0) = 1 - exp(-x).
exp(-x) = 0.05.
x = 3 (approximately).

This means that 3 of these distance units equal 500 light years. Therefore, taking three steps with a uniform density of about 1/3 the density at the origin (x=0) will produce about the same amount of mass as is stepped out by three units under the exponential drop-off (since the density at the limit is less than 5% what it is at the origin).

So, under these assumptions, the average stellar density over the whole cylinder that is 1000 light years thick is about 1/3 what it is at the Sun. This neglects the change in density as a function of the distance from the core, but that shouldn't change much at this scale.

So, that 8 million figure is too high. Don't use a sphere with 1,000 light year radius. Use a cylinder with a height of 1,000 light years and a base with a radius of 1,000 light years (pi*r^2*h instead of 4/3*pi*r^3). Then, take about 1/3 of the resulting number of stars in that (or some similar fraction). That's a far more accurate estimate. (edit - If you want to limit the question to what's strictly within a certain distance of UFP Headquarters, you can, but you'll have to integrate circular cross-sections of the sphere when stellar density is a function of cross-section distance from the galactic plane while the radius of the cross-section varies with that distance. That's perfectly doable, but not nearly as simple as switching over to the cylinder, which has the benefit that the shape of each cross section is independent of displacement from the galactic plane and so which requires consideration of only the much simpler integrals considered here.)

All that said, as it turns out, the answer is not affected by much more than a single order of magnitude.

 

[Timo]

The intriguing aspect of that is, does the star density gradient affect the likelihood of civilizations emerging? ITRW or Trek, the rules governing both being equally unknown at the moment.

The Trek galaxy is old in terms of starflight. Panspermia would have guaranteed life on every suitable rock in the billions of years allocated, not having to rely on sublight movement and means of transportation that might fail to land on suitable rocks: warp tourism would introduce life at the oddest of locations, much like we spew domestic waste on top of Mount Everest. But the real Milky Way is old, too: billions of years are available for sublight star travel, allowing the contaminating of every corner with life just as certainly as warp travel would. But classic panspermia would be less likely to take root in less dense regions, and conventional sublight travelers might take less interest in the rim regions.

Trek and reality are likely to have slightly different rules on the presence of planetary systems around stars in various galactic zones, with Trek having the advantage, as per its portrayal of systems we ITRW currently consider highly unlikely to exist. But again it might be that Trek supercultures choose to build planets according to rules that are dependent on zoning. In such a case, what affects a single order of magnitude in terms of numbers of stars might have a greater effect on what happens at the differently zoned stars.

Timo Saloniemi

 

[CorporalCaptain]

The intriguing aspect of that is, does the star density gradient affect the likelihood of civilizations emerging? ITRW or Trek, the rules governing both being equally unknown at the moment.

There are levels of what is known. We know with pretty much as close as could be gotten to factual certainty that impact events have been responsible for wiping out great swaths of life of the Earth.

Therefore and IMO, not only is it plausible that the average frequency of extinction-level impact events could affect the likelihood of the emergence of civilization, but also it is plausible that, at least above a certain threshold of that frequency, it would be detrimental. This would imply that once the stellar density becomes too high, civilization becomes unlikely, because nearby passing stars perturb cometary clouds. So, it could very well be that civilizations aren't likely (per star) too close to the core. This is one of the points I was getting at upthread, though I didn't drive it home.

It's also plausible that you need some minimum frequency of impact events to spur the evolution of life that can rapidly adapt to dynamic circumstances, perhaps a necessary condition for the emergence of intelligence, and therefore (presumably) also civilization.

Granted, a lot isn't known.

 

[BK613]

If we hold that "a mathematical probability of three million earth-type planets" as stated in Balance of Terror is in-universe factual --and that those planets are evenly distributed, then the number of those planets found in 19% of the MW would be 570,000. SF would have needed to visit 2850 planets a year for its first 200 years to visit all of those. If you allow a week per visit (and travel time) per starship, you would need on average 55 starships making 52 visits per year to visit all those planets.