An extinction level impact will occur in 25 years, what options does life on Earth have?

[Asbo Zaprudder]

So, assuming Apophis with a diameter of about 350 metres is really headed for a collision with Earth in 2068, when will we take notice and do anything? Will humankind just metaphorically kick the can down the road and hope someone else sorts it out?

Even though it wouldn't be an ELE, a collision with a body as large as Apophis would likely result in the deaths of a substantial portion of mankind. Its kinetic energy would be the equivalent of about two thousand one-megaton bombs. On land, an impact would throw a huge amount of debris into the upper atmosphere, blocking sunlight for many months and causing widespread crop failure. In the ocean, it would create a destructive megatsunami that could devastate or destroy many countries.

 

[Silvercrest]

On land, an impact would throw a huge amount of debris into the upper atmosphere, blocking sunlight for many months and causing widespread crop failure.

Ah! The solution to global warming!

 

[Asbo Zaprudder]

We don't even need to wait for the asteroid. We just need an all-out nuclear war. It would also decrease the surplus population. Bah humbug.

 

[Santaman]

Mlergh.. I don't need a nuclear war, I've got a nuclear fuel production plant in my city, the Russians have a nuke aimed at it just so the kboom will be bigger and dirtier and I don't like the idea of turning into a radioactive glow in the dark zombie thank you very much..

 

[StarCruiser]

Zombies are cool! Well, some people think so...

 

[Santaman]

I only like the vegan ones.. "graaains! graaaaaaaaaains!"

 

[Gingerbread Demon]

And then what happens if it just skims the atmosphere and doesn't hit us?

 

[Silvercrest]

Then it's not an extinction level event. What was the question again?

 

[Gingerbread Demon]

Then it's not an extinction level event. What was the question again?

Yes I know what the question was but what happens when you get an asteroid that just skims off the atmosphere would there still be damage if it was big?

 

[Asbo Zaprudder]

A ricochet off the atmosphere could still cause damage due to compressive heating of the air and shock waves. The effects wouldn't be anything like as bad as a direct impact - depending on the amount of kinetic energy converted.

However, the asteroid would lose momentum through aerobraking, which might increase the probability of a later, direct impact.

 

[Gingerbread Demon]

A ricochet off the atmosphere could still cause damage due to compressive heating of the air and shock waves. The effects wouldn't be anything like as bad as a direct impact - depending on the amount of kinetic energy converted.

However, the asteroid would lose momentum through aerobraking, which might increase the probability of a later, direct impact.

So a slower but deadly bounce..... OK

 

[Asbo Zaprudder]

Well, it might still have enough energy to stay in solar orbit, it might fragment, all sorts of possibilities really. Just the compressive heating in Earth's atmosphere from a near miss would sear the ground directly underneath but the shock wave effects would probably be more widespread as evidenced by the approximately 17m diameter bolide that exploded at about 20km over Chelyabinsk in 2013 with an energy of about 0.47 megatons.

 

[publiusr]

So a slower but deadly bounce..... OK

That looks to be the case with Tunguska, now I hear that it was an iron that skipped.

The Great Daylight Fireball of 1972 was a smaller example. The super-8 film shows it not breaking up at all going from horizon to horizon, for 1,500 km. It’s aerobrake was to allow for a resonant return in the 1990’s.

Part of me thinks it was a Bracewell probe

 

[Gingerbread Demon]

That looks to be the case with Tunguska, now I hear that it was an iron that skipped.

The Great Daylight Fireball of 1972 was a smaller example. The super-8 film shows it not breaking up at all going from horizon to horizon, for 1,500 km. It’s aerobrake was to allow for a resonant return in the 1990’s.

Part of me thinks it was a Bracewell probe

No...What would have been the point?

 

[publiusr]

Snap a few pix, take an air sample.

Drop nanites, that sort of thing. I wouldn’t want an abduction, when I can have a small flying robot take a bite. Everyone looks for Greys...maybe the alien was the bug that bit you at camp and flew away before you could swat it.

 

[Gingerbread Demon]

Snap a few pix, take an air sample.

Drop nanites, that sort of thing. I wouldn’t want an abduction, when I can have a small flying robot take a bite. Everyone looks for Greys...maybe the alien was the bug that bit you at camp and flew away before you could swat it.

You know what, that's actually not a bad concept.

 

[valkyrie013]

It really depends on the ELE on what one could do.
If it was an asteroid, or a comet, then chances are good that we could push it out of our way. Just takes a nudge really.

Now if the asteroid/comet would be unable to be nudged, then other options come to mind. Caves, below the ocean, etc. if its not to big, if its the size of say 10+ miles wide, uh.. we be screwed no matter where.

Now other ELE that could effect us are a multitude, Supernova nearby that would fry us, Flood Basalt eruption, Super volcano, solar flair, etc, etc, etc.

Now 25 years is long enough to build a station, or space ship that contains many many embryios, maybe robots that could raise/care for them when young. and send the probes to multipule systems and colonize suportive planets.

 

[Asbo Zaprudder]

Now 25 years is long enough to build a station, or space ship that contains many many embryos, maybe robots that could raise/care for them when young. and send the probes to multiple systems and colonize supportive planets.

We don't have artificial womb technology currently. That would be a game changer for civilisation even if we didn't use it to colonise other worlds. I'm sure many women would be relieved not to have to endure the pain and risk of childbirth.

 

[Gingerbread Demon]

We don't have artificial womb technology currently. That would be a game changer for civilisation even if we didn't use it to colonise other worlds. I'm sure many women would be relieved not to have to endure the pain and risk of childbirth.

Imagine if we did have that now. Women wouldn't need to carry a baby to term and endure all the stuff they endure as you say. It would be an earth shattering change to society

 

[Asbo Zaprudder]

Imagine if we did have that now. Women wouldn't need to carry a baby to term and endure all the stuff they endure as you say. It would be an earth shattering change to society

It would also make us extremely dependent on the technology and there would be a temptation to meddle with the genome of the foetuses in a similar manner to that described in Brave New World - although gene-editing techniques such as CRISPR, not imagined by Huxley, could be used. Might we be tempted to create supermen or compliant drones?