True. In fact, I would go so far as to say it's actually better for Rob to just barely lose the first Extinction challenge. He needs to get back into the game as late as possible to have a chance at winning the $2 million, and a tight loss could actually help in selling himself to the jury at the end (as, under those circumstances, he would have either won or barely lost both chances to get back in the game from Extinction).
Good point, if he comes back at 6, with the idol he bought with his tokens, he can make a power move just at the right time.