The Great Power Geopolitics of the 2390s

[Sululu]

Hello!

First off, I realized I had a username for this site when I joined back in 2008 (having lurked some years before that). Nothing interesting really happened in the intervening years, but STP has given me renewed interest in the series - being a child of the 90s and growing up on TNG, DS9 and VOY - and so I'm getting plugged in (as much as work and childcare allows).

Secondly, not quite sure if this is the right subforum - Mods feel free to move if so - but I'm kind of framing this as the context that I would like to see STP reference, given that it is 20 years since the stories of Picard, Sisko and Janeway.

So basic premise - the 2370s were a sh1tshow for the Federation - it successively went to war with the Borg, the Dominion, the Cardassians, the Breen, the Klingons, the Remans. I would've thought there'd be some MAJOR GEOPOLITICAL FALLOUT after:

1. The Federation fought a brief, albeit major attritional war with the Klingons in order to defend a power that ultimately screwed it over by joining the Dominion - how do Klingons forgive and forget that?
2. The Borg invaded Earth.
3. Starfleet HQ was destroyed by the Breen causing tens of thousands of deaths, probably.
4. Two major Federation homeworlds (Betazed and Benzar) were annexed by the Dominion - regardless how you cut that, that is a major political and military f*ck-up. Can you imagine Florida and Georgia or Michigan and Illinois or whatever being annexed by a foreign power? Yet in DS9 they always framed it with Earth-centricity "oh, they're within striking distance of Earth". Dude, a major Federation member.
5. A Federation President was essentially ousted in a coup by Starfleet officers (how Admiral whatshisface in DS9 managed to single-handedly mount a coup, sidelining the THOUSANDS of others Admirals and senior figures is beyond me). What does this coup say about organizational culture and leadership in Starfleet? What about separation of powers between the civil and military arms? Is Admiral Leyton a one-off or are there other hawks waiting in the wings to turn the Federation into a martial state?
6. An unsanctioned (but actually sort-of sanctioned) Section 31 tried to commit genocide against another species.
7. The Romulan homeworld was destroyed, causing BILLIONS of deaths and probably hundreds of millions of refugees.
8. After ramping up military expenditure in the occupation of Bajor for several decades, then being bombed into oblivion by the AQ powers and latterly the Dominion (leaving 800 million dead), Cardassia has probably become a failed state.
9. Janeway came back from the DQ with advanced Borg-killing technology from the future - how does that not alter the balance of power in the Alpha/Beta quadrants? Would this not trigger an arms race?
10. Also, a Starfleet Captain - Sisko - basically nuked an entire (okay, uninhabited. Was it?) planet to get rid of the Maquis and Michael Eddington on a personal vendetta - but zero f*cks were given.

So with an enormous military the other side of a wormhole, a failed state on its doorstep, a potential BQ arms race, a seemingly rotten military hierarchy, a cuckolded civilian government, rogue Starfleet captains and Federation paramilitaries nuking planets and acting to commit genocide, billions of displaced citizens, and probably secessionist movements from Federation homeworlds that have been treated as cannon-fodder and collateral by Terran-centric military planners, I think there's enough there to make the 2390s very turbulent for the Federation. I kind of almost wish they did something with this context, rather than invent/extrapolate a new paradigm of anti-'synth' sentiment. But it's only two episodes in to the series, so let's see how it goes...

 

[Timo]

Interesting stuff here, and we have every indication that the writers of modern Trek read their Memory Alpha with care and do spot the opportunities to use preexisting Trek factoids to tell politically and dramatically relevant stories.

The Federation fought a brief, albeit major attritional war with the Klingons in order to defend a power that ultimately screwed it over by joining the Dominion - how do Klingons forgive and forget that?

They offer a goblet of bloodwine to any Fed they meet, for offering a splendid opportunity for another good fight?

The Borg invaded Earth.

And then the Voyager team got back and told everything there's to be known about the Borg, including their major weaknesses, their fundamental unwillingness to actually directly attack or destroy Earth due to their perhaps unexpected motivations, and the fact that they were just given a major blow. Might be this failed invasion is what turns the Borg from a threat to a nuisance, something Starfleet can cordon off from now on.

Starfleet HQ was destroyed by the Breen causing tens of thousands of deaths, probably.

Tens of thousands of people in uniform are dying all the time in the Federation. Most of the Earth probably wouldn't pay much attention. Remarkably, the Breen attack hurt basically nothing: all of San Francisco is still there, save for three or four smoking craters the size of small buildings.

Sure, it was unheard of for a mere mortal foe to strike at Earth. But Earth is always getting pounded by foes of other calibers, and must have gotten used to Starfleet telling the angry godlike creature of the week to turn tail.

Two major Federation homeworlds (Betazed and Benzar) were annexed by the Dominion - regardless how you cut that, that is a major political and military f*ck-up. Can you imagine Florida and Georgia or Michigan and Illinois or whatever being annexed by a foreign power? Yet in DS9 they always framed it with Earth-centricity "oh, they're within striking distance of Earth". Dude, a major Federation member.

Might be fringe members of the UFP feel less secure now. Might be they want to leave the UFP for this reason. Might be they want to forge a tighter federation for the very same reason, though. It's too bad we have never gotten much in the way of outer world politics, it always being either the core players or the frontier colonies.

A Federation President was essentially ousted in a coup by Starfleet officers (how Admiral whatshisface in DS9 managed to single-handedly mount a coup, sidelining the THOUSANDS of others Admirals and senior figures is beyond me). What does this coup say about organizational culture and leadership in Starfleet? What about separation of powers between the civil and military arms? Is Admiral Leyton a one-off or are there other hawks waiting in the wings to turn the Federation into a martial state?

We have seen plenty of coupsters, in assorted eras and timelines. Enough to make it possible that the setup is in fact robust enough to survive a coup or a dozen. Starfleet runs the foreign policy anyway, declaring wars on its own and all. So again, would anybody even notice Leyton, or Cartwright, or Marcus, or the next in the line? Their coups are done away with in a timescale of days, and they never as much as manage to furl out their banners or make a public speech.

An unsanctioned (but actually sort-of sanctioned) Section 31 tried to commit genocide against another species.

Who would have a problem with that, though? Space warfare is likely to involve genocide as a pretty mundane event anyway, considering the sheer scale. And the idea of it being fine to shoot the troopers in the trenches but not to assassinate the generals and the presidents who are actually responsible for the war and/or whose deaths will shorten the conflict may have been abandoned in disgust, too.

The Romulan homeworld was destroyed, causing BILLIONS of deaths and probably hundreds of millions of refugees.

Considering the frequency at which Earth faces mortal threat, it's a wonder no capital world in the neighborhood has been lost before this. But one would assume there would be contingency plans in place, with Feds, Klingons and Romulans all having a dossier in the desk drawer titled "Open In Case Of Enemy Homeworld Loss". I do wonder what the Klingons are doing about it.

After ramping up military expenditure in the occupation of Bajor for several decades, then being bombed into oblivion by the AQ powers and latterly the Dominion (leaving 800 million dead), Cardassia has probably become a failed state.

They sorta claimed to have been one all along, to justify their expansionist moves. But if any force emerges from the ashes potent and dominant, it's likely to be the military again. With little in the way of resources, but hey, even if they can't offer loot from alien worlds, at least they can offer order.

Janeway came back from the DQ with advanced Borg-killing technology from the future - how does that not alter the balance of power in the Alpha/Beta quadrants? Would this not trigger an arms race?

Keeping intriguing deep space discoveries secret has always been a Starfleet forte, ever since the days of Kirk at least. It is probably in UFP interest not to exploit advanced technology lest their enemies try and do the same, much like the Royal Navy refused to build advanced warships for most of the 19th century and thus dominated the seas with great numbers of primitive ones.

Also, a Starfleet Captain - Sisko - basically nuked an entire (okay, uninhabited. Was it?) planet to get rid of the Maquis and Michael Eddington on a personal vendetta - but zero f*cks were given.

Who would care? The competitors of the UFP would see fault, but would be active practitioners of the art themselves, so there'd be little impact. And Kirk was always nuking civilizations left and right, or threatening to. It's what Starfleet does, to keep people safe.

So with an enormous military the other side of a wormhole, a failed state on its doorstep, a potential BQ arms race, a seemingly rotten military hierarchy, a cuckolded civilian government, rogue Starfleet captains and Federation paramilitaries nuking planets and acting to commit genocide, billions of displaced citizens, and probably secessionist movements from Federation homeworlds that have been treated as cannon-fodder and collateral by Terran-centric military planners...

...it's pretty much status quo for the Federation, as far as we can tell. Congrats to them for managing to run something like that for at least two and a half centuries straight!

It's not just something implicitly inherent in the structure of the UFP and of the galactic politics. Significantly, it's deeply inherent in the storytelling of Trek, as even though the writers always can do the "hero faces Klingons" thing, they absolutely need to introduce new threats, but OTOH cannot be expected to imply that this results in accumulation. Rather, it must be taken as a steady state, with infinite foes having their moments of glory and then fading as the UFP perhaps steadily grows more capable of weathering the blows.

Timo Saloniemi

 

[Hythlodeus]

is it still geopolitics, when we're talking about a semigalactic federation of planets?

 

[trash80]

is it still geopolitics, when we're talking about a semigalactic federation of planets?

I've used the term astralpolitics in my sci-fi, which is a bit bollox but kinda cute

"Considering the frequency at which Earth faces mortal threat, it's a wonder no capital world in the neighborhood has been lost before this."

This always intrigues me about everyday life in the ST universe, it would kinda put me on edge to be honest

 

[Hythlodeus]

I've used the term astralpolitics in my sci-fi, which is a bit bollox but kinda cute

interstellar politics?

 

[Sululu]

galactopolitics?

 

[F. King Daniel]

Astropolitics?

 

[Hythlodeus]

21st century language is not suited for that kind of scale

 

[ITDUDE]

Most of these points are from DS9. If history has shown us anything, they will be summarily forgotten or ignored.
Anti-Borg tech from future? For all we know this is how Romulans got that cute little cube they are working on.

 

[F. King Daniel]

Space politics. Spolitics.

 

[DEWLine]

Astropolitics?

I prefer this word.

 

[Lord Garth]

It's enough to know that things were bad for the Federation in the '70s and it changed Starfleet permanently. Then, in the '80s, Picard finally had enough and left because "It was no longer Starfleet!" Now here we are at the end of the '90s.

Broad Strokes which don't contradict anything that came before.

For the Android Rebellion, Picard was against the idea of creating a race of disposable people as far back as "Measure of a Man" in TNG Season 2. PIC is showing what he was worried about. Holographic Rights was a major story line during VOY's seventh season. They've taken the Holographic Rights story and applied it to AIs in general, so it can apply to Androids and Data.

They're taking the story and telling it on TNG terms. Which, given that this is called Star Trek: Picard, makes the most sense.

 

[SpocksOddSocks]

The Klingon idea of the Klingons fogiving is quite easy. They don't need to forgive, or forget, only to remember things how they want to remember them. If it suits the Klingon Empire to continue to think of the Federation as their allies against the Dominion, they will remember that brief interlude in a way that supports that desire. In fact, I suspect that will be the case.

is it still geopolitics, when we're talking about a semigalactic federation of planets?

How about "Cosmopolitics"? I know it sounds a little (perhaps too) similar to cosmopolitan, but having that word in usage makes it sound more familiar.

 

[NewHeavensNewEarth]

Space politics. Spolitics.

I prefer the term "lines n squiggles."

 

[saladdays]

I'm curious as to when we would have had an opportunity to see any of this "fallout" in TV or film? I think the best opportunity to get into most of this is probably in a novel, which, of course, won't truly be canon, but dealing with large subjects like most of these are not ideal for media.

 

[Hythlodeus]

I'm curious as to when we would have had an opportunity to see any of this "fallout" in TV or film? I think the best opportunity to get into most of this is probably in a novel, which, of course, won't truly be canon, but dealing with large subjects like most of these are not ideal for media.

didn't Articles of the Federation cover that?

 

[saladdays]

didn't Articles of the Federation cover that?

Possibly. I just haven't read it.

 

[FederationHistorian]

A few things stand out to me:

According to Section 31, it would take the Klingons ten years to recover from their losses after the end of the Dominion War, meaning 2385 – right when the Synths went rogue. So are they annexing what remains of the Romulan Empire, or are they just sitting idly by?

I wonder how the Gorn, Orions, and the Tholians perceive what is happening with the Federation? They obviously would have a bit more influence in light of what happened to the Romulans.

With the Federation in an isolationist stance and showing signs of internal division, and the Romulan capital world destroyed, what’s to stop the Dominion from breaking the peace treaty and invading the Alpha Quadrant again?

Ferenginar must look like a beacon of stability right now, with them never being involved in any wars whatsoever in there history. Wonder how that will influence relations as a whole.

 

[JoeZhang]

For the Android Rebellion, Picard was against the idea of creating a race of disposable people as far back as "Measure of a Man" in TNG Season 2. PIC is showing what he was worried about. Holographic Rights was a major story line during VOY's seventh season. They've taken the Holographic Rights story and applied it to AIs in general, so it can apply to Androids and Data.

Given everyone including Picard uses Holograms liberally even within a society that is hostile to AI - clearly either that movement failed or modern holograms have better safeguards to prevent them becoming sentient (although software might make it difficult to tell the difference).

 

[Arpy]

A few things stand out to me:

According to Section 31, it would take the Klingons ten years to recover from their losses after the end of the Dominion War, meaning 2385 – right when the Synths went rogue. So are they annexing what remains of the Romulan Empire, or are they just sitting idly by?

I wonder how the Gorn, Orions, and the Tholians perceive what is happening with the Federation? They obviously would have a bit more influence in light of what happened to the Romulans.

With the Federation in an isolationist stance and showing signs of internal division, and the Romulan capital world destroyed, what’s to stop the Dominion from breaking the peace treaty and invading the Alpha Quadrant again?

Ferenginar must look like a beacon of stability right now, with them never being involved in any wars whatsoever in there history. Wonder how that will influence relations as a whole.

The Orions seem more like mobsters than belligerents. But the Talarians, Sheliak, Jarada...Tamarians, Vissians, others?