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Who is going to win this election in November?

Who will win the general presidential election?

  • Donald Trump

    Votes: 37 22.7%
  • Hillary Clinton

    Votes: 126 77.3%

  • Total voters
    163
  • Poll closed .
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Unless Trump doesn't go away, and he and his drones keep up the "everything is rigged!" assault even after he loses, and the angry alt-right seizes on that for once.

Because that's happened in other countries, and the results have NEVER been good.
Fortunately, I already know a good defensible position with adequate concealment.

Remember, plenty of Trump supporters think they're ALREADY essentially at war, against blacks, gays, communists, th' gubbmint, taxes, or reptilian alien overlords.
 
Unless Trump doesn't go away, and he and his drones keep up the "everything is rigged!" assault even after he loses, and the angry alt-right seizes on that for once.

Because that's happened in other countries, and the results have NEVER been good.
Fortunately, I already know a good defensible position with adequate concealment.

Remember, plenty of Trump supporters think they're ALREADY essentially at war, against blacks, gays, communists, th' gubbmint, taxes, or reptilian alien overlords.

I'd suspect trump of being one of the latter. I believe he was carrying a book the other day called "To Serve Man" and it was a cook book.
 
They may not be discouraged but without trump there won't be anybody left to focalize their anger. It will be like a myopic guy losing his glasses.

Why do you think they need someone to represent their anger?

I would recommend you look back through the modern history of conservatism in America. The alt-right is basically the latest incoming wave of the Conservative Movement, and they become more intensely detached from reality all the time.

Remember the conservative wave of the '90s? They were bringing back "family values" and "small government." In reality, they were selling the country up the river (indeed, Democrats like Bill Clinton certainly helped, too). Their leaders were scumbags--think Newt Gingrich. They hadn't yet completely departed from reality, though. They knew where society was and where it was going, but their intention was to push back and make America more like their imagined 1950s white suburbia.

Once George W. Bush got into office, of course, he got us involved in multiple wars and produced the most conservative-friendly domestic agenda since Reagan. It was in this era that we really started to see a split, though. Bush himself was cut from a mold not dissimilar to his father or Reagan, but he found himself at odds with a more conservative Congress that parted ways with him on issues like immigration. They were already steeped in climate change denial, they rejected plenty of mainstream science, and at the fringes you had the Alex Jones "9/11 was an inside job" set. This was only the beginning.

Republicans lost Congress in 2006, but they weren't smarting too hard because the Dems didn't have that big of an edge, and they still had Bush in the White House. They hadn't completely lost their shit--it took Obama's election to do that. Notice how the Tea Party, which really ramped up after Obama got elected, didn't need a leader on their side in order to wreak lots of havoc. All they needed was a focal point for their anger in the form of Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton will no doubt serve the very same purpose.

And while the Tea Party brought an unprecedented era of obstructionism, at least they had a coherent ideology: government is too big, we're taxed too much, time to grind the wheels to a halt and shrink the beast. I wholeheartedly disagree with this, but it's an identifiable belief system. It involves comprehensible strategies and rhetoric.

The alt-right sees what was once the fringe get moved to center stage. Republicans used to have to keep their bigotry and xenophobia on the down-low. They used dogwhistles like "inner cities" and "law and order" and "welfare queens" and "violent criminals" when they're really talking about coming down hard on black people. They say "pro-life" when they mean "men controlling women's bodies." They say "family values" when they mean "gay people must be stigmatized and ostracized." They understood that naked bigotry simply didn't fly with the American mainstream.

Well, the alt-right doesn't get that. They think most Americans agree with them and are just afraid to admit it. We have a Presidential candidate who is beloved by honest-to-god white supremacists and neo-Nazis. He promises to round up millions of people and deport them, and they love him for it. He promises to register, control, and ban Muslims, and they love him for it. He promotes a foreign policy that amounts to the US stomping all over the globe, including through the use of nukes, and they love it, because it's strong. These are people who don't live in anything resembling reality. They live in a world where they believe white men in particular are under existential threat from Mexicans, from black people, from Muslims, from basically the entire world. They see conspiracies everywhere, reject anything they consider "mainstream" because it's tainted by George Soros or Reptilians or chemtrails or fuck knows. They praise a man who brags about sexual assault. They want a man who very clearly desires a dictatorship and would use any means at his disposal to crush dissent and criticism, and seems thrilled by the idea of abusing and killing lots of people.

The point is, the right-wing in the US has gone from something I don't agree with but which at least sort-of inhabited a reality I recognize, to some kind of mass psychosis where there's disagreement about basic facts. I say man-made climate change is real; they say it's a plot by the Chinese to destroy America. You can't reason with that, and those attitudes are too dangerous to have wielding government power. But the trend is real, and I think people are kidding themselves if they believe it's just gonna go away when Trump loses.

2018 may end up being a very, very ugly year, to say nothing of 2020.
 
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There's also the problem of Trump "suspecting" the election to be rigged, but only if Clinton wins, coupled with his more or less subtle suggestions of his gun-loving followers taking arms against Clinton should she win.

If Trump loses, I expect some more incidents like the occupation of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge, and we'll be lucky if they will end with as little violence.
 
BTW howcome for you guys the election cycle is so much longer then in our country?

The simplest answer is that most countries (other than the U.S.) have laws governing the length of campaigns, but the type of representative government also plays a large role. Parliamentary governments have snap elections in which campaigning is tied to the date parliament is dissolved. Also, the manner in which parties determine their nominees (open primary votes in the U.S.) can stretch out the process.

Other factors include campaign finance rules (more outside funds necessitates the need to begin fundraising earlier) and even divided government (the lack of one party being in control incentivizes parties and the media to constantly be looking out multiple elections and not focus as much on the here and now).
 
The simplest answer is that most countries (other than the U.S.) have laws governing the length of campaigns, but the type of representative government also plays a large role. Parliamentary governments have snap elections in which campaigning is tied to the date parliament is dissolved. Also, the manner in which parties determine their nominees (open primary votes in the U.S.) can stretch out the process.

Other factors include campaign finance rules (more outside funds necessitates the need to begin fundraising earlier) and even divided government (the lack of one party being in control incentivizes parties and the media to constantly be looking out multiple elections and not focus as much on the here and now).


But how does that lead to a I think 4 year cycle for you guys? Is that right?
 
But how does that lead to a I think 4 year cycle for you guys? Is that right?

Are you referring to presidential campaigns specifically? If so, I would say modern campaigns last 1.5-2 years. A big part of it is primary creep. Until 1975, it was unusual for a candidate to jump in the race until the year of the presidential general election itself. Jimmy Carter started the trend to get-in earlier, and states began trying to put their primaries and caucuses earlier and earlier in the calendar in order to get a political and economic advantage. Eventually, the big name politicians began using the run-up to the primaries as a way of a) gathering endorsements and b) raising money in order to scare other candidates into never running in the first place.

The general election itself also got extended recently due to campaign finance rules. U.S. campaign finance rules put money into two buckets: primary funds and general election funds. General election funds can only be used after the nominating convention, so it made sense to move the nominating conventions earlier in order to let the candidates use the general election funds earlier. [Note: Democratic nominee John Kerry ran into major trouble as a result of these rules in 2004. He was stuck with basically no money during the August 2004 period (in which the swift-boat-veterans-for-truth campaign ads were aired), and he wasn't able to use his general election funds until the later nominating convention was held.]
 
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You're welcome. For clarification: I meant that the campaigns themselves last 1.5-2 years. The cycle itself (between presidential elections) is of course 4 years (as per the U.S. Constitution).

Ah... Thanks

I knew about the 4 year limit as per the constitution just it seems odd that people start campaigning a year or two before the actual voting and all. Over here parliament is dissolved and a date is set so it's usually a year or under for campaigns over here, usually a few months at the most..
 
Ah... Thanks

I knew about the 4 year limit as per the constitution just it seems odd that people start campaigning a year or two before the actual voting and all. Over here parliament is dissolved and a date is set so it's usually a year or under for campaigns over here, usually a few months at the most..

Keep in mind that it's not just a 4-year "limit." It's a set four-year term. That means we know exactly when the presidential elections will be held in 2020, 2024, 2028, 2032, etc. The consistency allows us to extend our campaigns over longer and longer periods.
 
Keep in mind that it's not just a 4-year "limit." It's a set four-year term. That means we know exactly when the presidential elections will be held in 2020, 2024, 2028, 2032, etc. The consistency allows us to extend our campaigns over longer and longer periods.

That would make for a fun ride, or not depending on how you vote.

Do you think there will be much noise if one candidate loses?
 
OK I just have to share this........ I found it online.



rebootamerica.jpg
 

Seems like something a trump aficionado expecting defeat would make up.

In spite, of all his crap I am still expecting trump to concede without making any fuss about it. And if he doesn't then it should convince the indecisive of his ineptitude, once and for all.
 
^ I think it's more likely to have been made by someone who is frustrated with both major options. At least that's who I see sharing it on Facebook.

As for Trump, I think he will initially concede quietly. Then he will start egging on his supporters who refuse to accept the legitimacy of Clinton's presidency. He/they will be continue to be a disruptive force for a long time. :(
 
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Undecided voter: "So you're saying I have to choose whether I get shot in the foot, or shot in the face? And if I don't pick one, everybody else is gonna pick for me?"
 
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